I tend to agree. A string of 52/30 high low spreads for a few weeks will at least be pleasant
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This is as far south as you will ever see the subtropical jet stream here on the GEFS as the mean wave in the flow is entering North America south of Baja. That's unheard of. The mean jet stream zonal wind anomalies have steadily moved south from December into February (2nd image), common in robust El Ninos as EWebb showed (at bottom)
Nothing to complain about wrt the 12z ens 
Cary_Snow95
Member
This is one scenario where means and departures should get better and better as we get closer to 02/15. That snow mean for 16 days out is pretty impressive honestly.
Euro with the big time ridge out west already at D10 now. It’s coming 
That's a tall spiking ridge. What a banger.
First time in a while I’ve seen a -NAO with a cooperative pacific (+PNA). Honestly don’t remember the the last time. Feels like we stayed wasting -NAOs on either trash pacific patterns, or decent But very transient pac patterns
Literally every teleconnections here is cooperating. Split flow, +PNA, -NAO/-AO, Alaskan ridge/-EPO, this is a rarity. I can understand the pessimism because nothing has happened this winter, and we’ve failed, but this isn’t gonna be like the last couple of February’s, this is quickly reaching the D10 window now, the building blocks are under that 
BHS1975
Member
Hasn't the Indian Ocean convection been messing it up?
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Flotown
Member
that,verbatim would be an overrunning dream
At this point I will be happy with a few days of fantasy runs, feels like we haven’t even had that in 2+ years
Weakest zonal wind output to date for mid Feb to mid Mar on today’s Euro Weeklies update. Could support a heavy and prolonged blocking episode if it continues
Ron Burgundy
Member
Dang - three tornado warnings out in S GA. One confirmed north of Valdosta
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I checked in with my mom in Valdosta. She's always scared when Torns are around. Her text: it's serious at Moody Air Force Base. Torns all over all around. Debris, people hurt. There was a torn on the ground in Ray City a few mins ago. A new on now on ground in Pavo, pass Hahira. Telling now on tv to take cover now. -(that was a couple of mins ago). Yikes
Stormlover
Member
There's the change to colder on the 8 to 14 day outlook
If we’re not digging out after this then idk anymore. Seems historically we do really well the first 3.5 weeks of February. Plus nothing would please me more than to see -------- eat crow here 
You lost me… did he say winter is over?
no but a few years ago he said there would be a year where Charlotte didn’t see a trace of snow and now it’s been two years and he’s showboating while the weenie inside of him is crying out for help
It's wild to me that people cope that way, even people in here do it. Like negativity is going to wash out their frustration or something. Lol
SWVAwxfan
Member
Tornado on the ground on traffic cam east of Baldwin FL. Not warned.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I know it's 300+,but GFS op trying to sniff out the pattern of interest.
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Ron Burgundy
Member
Feels like after 2020 we’ve flipped the switch to big -NAO events but we just always get unlucky with the pacific. Looks like this time, we are getting them in sync
And we have a massive 1021 HP dropping down over Montana/ND that's gonna be frigid as it moves ESE. lolI know it's 300+,but GFS op trying to sniff out the pattern of interest.
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There is a big one near 1050 in SE Canada but the bigger concern on this long range Hail Mary shot is the wiener roast at 500mb
Along with bad Pacific, bad 50/50 low generation underneath the block
Keep a eye on that -EPO it showed to go back positive in the LR today.That would be a killer for our cold source especially that late in the winter, BJ showed it in his video this evening.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I know the thread is closed for the storm in progress right now, and the interest has subsided since there isn't snow involved, (myself included) but, this was a very odd system. I've been watching models since I could get them on the internet...(1990's MRF and such), but I have never seen a system that looked and performed quite like this one. I don't remember seeing such a long band of rain NW to SE that slid Southeast then south. Typically, the Nw to SE oriented band extending from LP moves NE as a warm front, followed by a SW to NE oriented band moves SE as a cold front. Also, the occurrence of multiple sub 1000mb LP, almost simultaneously forming in GOM, off the Georgia Atlantic coast, and finally across southern tip of Fla, (The Southern most LP has not developed yet, though I fully expect it to because of the accuracy the models have displayed in the short term.) It is the strangest layout I've ever seen! Have any of you guys ever seen a system like this?!! By the way, the 3kNAM has been almost spot on it seems from the temperature layers, to the LP formations, to the Precip bands?
I was thinking that today that it looked weird
For years now, we've seen a tendency for the TPV to not fully slide eastward under Greenland blocking when we've had opportunities for it to. If that TPV doesn't fully come under the block and into favorable position in northern New England / southeastern Canada, which the EPS out to 2/19 still isn't showing a definitive signal of, it will likely wreck the pattern and either the Midwest and/or New England will be getting snow while we continue just like we have been. It is hard to break these kind of year-over-year tendencies.
At least as of now, it seems like the weaker the TPV is, the more likely it will be to slide east. If it remains very strong, it appears more EPS members keep it further west. Something to consider.
Until we can move beyond this multi-year tendency, I think it is wise to continue to look for and assess the signs and indications that it may happen again, while obviously hoping and praying it doesn't.
At least as of now, it seems like the weaker the TPV is, the more likely it will be to slide east. If it remains very strong, it appears more EPS members keep it further west. Something to consider.
Until we can move beyond this multi-year tendency, I think it is wise to continue to look for and assess the signs and indications that it may happen again, while obviously hoping and praying it doesn't.
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Not withstanding @1300's post above about getting the details right regarding the placement of key features (agree), tonight's GEFS Extended run is just a parade of high latitude blocking, 50/50 lows, W Canada ridging, & southern stream
Here are a series of images thru the run when there is a 50/50 low anomaly noted off the northeast coast (Feb 15 to the end of the run at Mar 10):
Here are a series of images thru the run when there is a 50/50 low anomaly noted off the northeast coast (Feb 15 to the end of the run at Mar 10):
There's no doubt the background state is about as favorable as we can get - canonical February ENSO response + MJO phase 8-1 progression. Hopefully that gets us over the hump. This should be money, but we've tried to cash a few fraudulent checks in recent years and so my guard remains up for the time being.
I'll be clear - anyone already throwing in the towel considering the overall picture either has no idea what they are doing, or they're being insincere. We may end up failing the same way we've failed for four years, but no one can possibly definitively say that with sound science at this time! Certainly makes sense to be guarded and cautious, but there are also reasons to be optimistic as @griteater and others have been sharing considering the background state headed our way.
You are absolutely correct. Things can certainly change and deteriorate over the next couple of weeks, but as things look today, we couldn't hardly ask for anything more...and that still may not be enough...but let the chips fall where they may
Tomer been tweeting the past few days about the threat of suppression. He usually tweets from a NE/Mid Atlantic viewpoint when it comes to snow chances so would have to think that would be bode decently for us
