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Pattern February 2024

Bye bye omega ridge of death...you won't be missed

At this point, just having BN temps for as long as possible is victory enough for me.



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I tend to agree. A string of 52/30 high low spreads for a few weeks will at least be pleasant
 
This is as far south as you will ever see the subtropical jet stream here on the GEFS as the mean wave in the flow is entering North America south of Baja. That's unheard of. The mean jet stream zonal wind anomalies have steadily moved south from December into February (2nd image), common in robust El Ninos as EWebb showed (at bottom)

gefs_f312.png

Feb 4 Jet.png

 
That's a tall spiking ridge. What a banger.
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First time in a while I’ve seen a -NAO with a cooperative pacific (+PNA). Honestly don’t remember the the last time. Feels like we stayed wasting -NAOs on either trash pacific patterns, or decent But very transient pac patterns
 
Literally every teleconnections here is cooperating. Split flow, +PNA, -NAO/-AO, Alaskan ridge/-EPO, this is a rarity. I can understand the pessimism because nothing has happened this winter, and we’ve failed, but this isn’t gonna be like the last couple of February’s, this is quickly reaching the D10 window now, the building blocks are under that 506DAD76-367F-47C6-83EA-006B1485673F.png549C6606-8EE0-42BF-A8D1-D4483922029C.png
 
First time in a while I’ve seen a -NAO with a cooperative pacific (+PNA). Honestly don’t remember the the last time. Feels like we stayed wasting -NAOs on either trash pacific patterns, or decent But very transient pac patterns

Hasn't the Indian Ocean convection been messing it up?


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Literally every teleconnections here is cooperating. Split flow, +PNA, -NAO/-AO, Alaskan ridge/-EPO, this is a rarity. I can understand the pessimism because nothing has happened this winter, and we’ve failed, but this isn’t gonna be like the last couple of February’s, this is quickly reaching the D10 window now, the building blocks are under that View attachment 145130View attachment 145131
that,verbatim would be an overrunning dream
 
Dang - three tornado warnings out in S GA. One confirmed north of Valdosta
I checked in with my mom in Valdosta. She's always scared when Torns are around. Her text: it's serious at Moody Air Force Base. Torns all over all around. Debris, people hurt. There was a torn on the ground in Ray City a few mins ago. A new on now on ground in Pavo, pass Hahira. Telling now on tv to take cover now. -(that was a couple of mins ago). Yikes
 
There's the change to colder on the 8 to 14 day outlook
814temp.conus.png
 
no but a few years ago he said there would be a year where Charlotte didn’t see a trace of snow and now it’s been two years and he’s showboating while the weenie inside of him is crying out for help
It's wild to me that people cope that way, even people in here do it. Like negativity is going to wash out their frustration or something. Lol
 
There is a big one near 1050 in SE Canada but the bigger concern on this long range Hail Mary shot is the wiener roast at 500mb
Keep a eye on that -EPO it showed to go back positive in the LR today.That would be a killer for our cold source especially that late in the winter, BJ showed it in his video this evening.
 
I know the thread is closed for the storm in progress right now, and the interest has subsided since there isn't snow involved, (myself included) but, this was a very odd system. I've been watching models since I could get them on the internet...(1990's MRF and such), but I have never seen a system that looked and performed quite like this one. I don't remember seeing such a long band of rain NW to SE that slid Southeast then south. Typically, the Nw to SE oriented band extending from LP moves NE as a warm front, followed by a SW to NE oriented band moves SE as a cold front. Also, the occurrence of multiple sub 1000mb LP, almost simultaneously forming in GOM, off the Georgia Atlantic coast, and finally across southern tip of Fla, (The Southern most LP has not developed yet, though I fully expect it to because of the accuracy the models have displayed in the short term.) It is the strangest layout I've ever seen! Have any of you guys ever seen a system like this?!! By the way, the 3kNAM has been almost spot on it seems from the temperature layers, to the LP formations, to the Precip bands?
 
I know the thread is closed for the storm in progress right now, and the interest has subsided since there isn't snow involved, (myself included) but, this was a very odd system. I've been watching models since I could get them on the internet...(1990's MRF and such), but I have never seen a system that looked and performed quite like this one. I don't remember seeing such a long band of rain NW to SE that slid Southeast then south. Typically, the Nw to SE oriented band extending from LP moves NE as a warm front, followed by a SW to NE oriented band moves SE as a cold front. Also, the occurrence of multiple sub 1000mb LP, almost simultaneously forming in GOM, off the Georgia Atlantic coast, and finally across southern tip of Fla, (The Southern most LP has not developed yet, though I fully expect it to because of the accuracy the models have displayed in the short term.) It is the strangest layout I've ever seen! Have any of you guys ever seen a system like this?!! By the way, the 3kNAM has been almost spot on it seems from the temperature layers, to the LP formations, to the Precip bands?
I was thinking that today that it looked weird
 
For years now, we've seen a tendency for the TPV to not fully slide eastward under Greenland blocking when we've had opportunities for it to. If that TPV doesn't fully come under the block and into favorable position in northern New England / southeastern Canada, which the EPS out to 2/19 still isn't showing a definitive signal of, it will likely wreck the pattern and either the Midwest and/or New England will be getting snow while we continue just like we have been. It is hard to break these kind of year-over-year tendencies.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-height_prob_le_504-1707048000-1707912000-1708344000-20-2.gif
At least as of now, it seems like the weaker the TPV is, the more likely it will be to slide east. If it remains very strong, it appears more EPS members keep it further west. Something to consider.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-height_prob_le_528-8344000.png
Until we can move beyond this multi-year tendency, I think it is wise to continue to look for and assess the signs and indications that it may happen again, while obviously hoping and praying it doesn't.
 
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Not withstanding @1300's post above about getting the details right regarding the placement of key features (agree), tonight's GEFS Extended run is just a parade of high latitude blocking, 50/50 lows, W Canada ridging, & southern stream

Here are a series of images thru the run when there is a 50/50 low anomaly noted off the northeast coast (Feb 15 to the end of the run at Mar 10):

Feb 4 GEFS Ext Loop.gif
 
Not withstanding @1300's post above about getting the details right regarding the placement of key features (agree), tonight's GEFS Extended run is just a parade of high latitude blocking, 50/50 lows, W Canada ridging, & southern stream

Here are a series of images thru the run when there is a 50/50 low anomaly noted off the northeast coast (Feb 15 to the end of the run at Mar 10):

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There's no doubt the background state is about as favorable as we can get - canonical February ENSO response + MJO phase 8-1 progression. Hopefully that gets us over the hump. This should be money, but we've tried to cash a few fraudulent checks in recent years and so my guard remains up for the time being.
 
You think this was why some of the mets were beginning to throw in the towel today?
I'll be clear - anyone already throwing in the towel considering the overall picture either has no idea what they are doing, or they're being insincere. We may end up failing the same way we've failed for four years, but no one can possibly definitively say that with sound science at this time! Certainly makes sense to be guarded and cautious, but there are also reasons to be optimistic as @griteater and others have been sharing considering the background state headed our way.
 
There's no doubt the background state is about as favorable as we can get - canonical February ENSO response + MJO phase 8-1 progression. Hopefully that gets us over the hump. This should be money, but we've tried to cash a few fraudulent checks in recent years and so my guard remains up for the time being.
You are absolutely correct. Things can certainly change and deteriorate over the next couple of weeks, but as things look today, we couldn't hardly ask for anything more...and that still may not be enough...but let the chips fall where they may
 
Tomer been tweeting the past few days about the threat of suppression. He usually tweets from a NE/Mid Atlantic viewpoint when it comes to snow chances so would have to think that would be bode decently for us

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