Pattern February 2024

[Flotown]

still say this has big POSSIBILITIES for a lot..but carolinas look the best to me

 

[Chazwin]

Precip fields and amounts are a bit much at this range. Models still trying to tie down the track. We have a storm though so that's good.

I agree. Also I would say that the last thing anyone in the Carolinas needs to be worried about right is it being too suppressed. That’s a very strong and active STJ and I would fully expect that even with a stronger push from the northern stream, there will certainly be some NW trends in the last several days.

 

[Chazwin]

Interesting tweet from DT. I definitely don’t think the mid-Atlantic is out, but I’m not sure this is going to have a Tennessee valley low.

WORKING HYPOTHESIS so if we accept the idea that the northern Jet Stream is overdone then the southern LOW is not along the Gulf Coast on FEB 4-5 . It will be back in the Tennessee Valley and the big snowstorm threat is still alive.

Here’s the thing… if he’s correct then this will be a much different looking storm that could still work for the western/central NC and SC upstate. It would be a Miller B storm with a transfer to off the SC coast because I do think that strong CAD is going to be there.

 

[griteater]

12z Spire shows the factor that we need to get right more than anything else IMO...that is, cold air that doesn't move south quick enough. The amplifying central Canada ridge and 50/50 low dropping south need do their thing and get the cold air in early

 

[Ilovesnow28]

So is this possible storm only for the Carolina's in the southeast or are there areas else where that needs to pay attention to this as well?

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

So is this possible storm only for the Carolina's in the southeast or are there areas else where that needs to pay attention to this as well?

Everyone needs to pay attention.

 

[1300m]

12z Spire shows the factor that we need to get right more than anything else IMO...that is, cold air that doesn't move south quick enough. The amplifying central Canada ridge and 50/50 low dropping south need do their thing and get the cold air in early

View attachment 143913

It was reallly close to being amazing though haha.

 

[Flotown]

Everyone needs to pay attention.

i agree,i think everyone should definately pay attention...so many possibilities...atleast a couple days before we even close to knowing who is most likely to getting in on this...JMO

 

[JLL1973]

still say this has big POSSIBILITIES for a lot..but carolinas look the best to me

In my opinion this was never a threat for our area. You are correct if anything at all occurs it will be our Carolina friends. Good luck to them

 

[LukeBarrette]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

More amped this run

 

[LukeBarrette]

More amped this run View attachment 143919View attachment 143920

Also seems like slightly less CAD

 

[Metwannabe]

18z might be one of those weenie runs been waiting for, c'mon good 'ol GFS don't let me down lol

 

[packfan98]

Low still in the gulf

 

[Metwannabe]

18z might be one of those weenie runs been waiting for, c'mon good 'ol GFS don't let me down lol

Or not ?

 

[packfan98]

Or not ?

Well, it didn't go to Cuba. Headed straight east.

 

[Metwannabe]

Well, it didn't go to Cuba. Headed straight east.

Yeah it's kinda a mess

 

[LukeBarrette]

Essentially what you want for this system to work is for the center of the energy to somewhere in that blue circle. Right now it’s just too far south for anything to happen. The track of the system should move somewhat SE because of the Canadian Ridge overtop and suppressive NE energy not allowing it to move North. Keep that energy in the NE in that same spot.

 

[Flotown]

starting to think this one is over...i know i know too early...but it looks horibly supressed

 

[$alt]

starting to think this one is over...i know i know too early...but it looks horibly supressed

It's nothing to do with it being suppressed at this point. It's actually a good thing