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Pattern February 2024

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1300m said:
I’m not trying to be rude, but this is basically a repeat of how we’ve failed the past 4 years. The PV is too far west and it will not work for us without supreme luck IMO. That’s a western southeast and Mid-Atlantic north winter look IMO. PV must be anchored further east for us to score (but then not too far east or we fail that way too).
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I will say that the TPV is moving from NW Greenland and dropping down to the Hudson Bay.
 
1300m said:
I’m not trying to be rude, but this is basically a repeat of how we’ve failed the past 4 years. The PV is too far west and it will not work for us without supreme luck IMO. That’s a western southeast and Mid-Atlantic north winter look IMO. PV must be anchored further east for us to score (but then not too far east or we fail that way too).
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Just to back this up, this is the evolution of single-day 6"+ events at RDU from 5 days out to the day of the storm. The PV is anchored over New England / southeastern Canada and rotates there, sending additional vortices southward as a southern wave approaches from the west.

I am in full agreement that a better pattern capable of producing winter storms is on the way....for someone. But I'm not convinced, yet, that it will be us that receives the goods in terms of winter storms. I hope it will, there's just no way to know. The devil is in the details, and I've been burned too many times since 2021 becoming too optimistic about long range patterns that almost worked out but gave snow and cold to Austin and Nashville instead of RDU and others east of the apps due to the PV being too far west.

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iGRXY said:
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I will say that the TPV is moving from NW Greenland and dropping down to the Hudson Bay.
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Yea I mean it's pretty hard to get a 15-day mean to show the center of tpv completely shifted South and East where we need it. Since the tendency as you go out in time will be to pull tpv to the pole where it's suppose to be located. I focus more on the anomalies to give an indication of where things appear to be setting up for that reason.

For the January cold outbreak, the lowest anamolies were pretty much always being advertised to hang out farther West than we prefer, and then even though we got the retrograding block and shifting east of the tpv... it rocket shipped on through at that point and didn't leave us a window to score.
 
KyloG said:
Try what? I’m just simply posting these long range ensembles we are defending as gospel.
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Bro you know what you're doing. The first 10-12 days of February are a torch and skewing the mean. You know it so why post it? If it doesn't get cold or snow, then okay but trying to post skewed data that you know is skewed as of today is ridiculous.
 
Just looking back in the January thread and you can see the difference between that "good" pattern, and the one we have coming up. The northern vortex centered too far west, no 50/50 signal, etc, etc...

That's not to say we can't fail again that way for the 2nd half of February, recent history says nature finds a way to make it happen. But right now, imo, we're sitting in the sweet spot of what's being shown.

All the images below were 10-15 day'ish means for the January Cold/mid-south storm.

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iGRXY said:
Bro you know what you're doing. The first 10-12 days of February are a torch and skewing the mean. You know it so why post it? If it doesn't get cold or snow, then okay but trying to post skewed data that you know is skewed as of today is ridiculous.
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We were saying the same stuff back in late Nov for Dec...and what happened? But you are right...it is ridiculous....don't just blindly accept 30-45-day ensemble means...bro.

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rburrel2 said:
Could you draw it up any better than this? Picture frame worthy

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There were some really positive things about the 0z means and some massive red flags. I get concerned about pushing the pac ridge poleward too fast which would want to excite the SER and potentially phase west. I think that the means may be washing the -nao a little too much, more -nao would help off set more undercutting. Looking at the plumes there are some 30 degree spreads for highs on the eps as you go later that's concerning since it's on the back of a cold shot. As a whole you cant complain about where the means are at D10-16 if you want snow
 
SD said:
There were some really positive things about the 0z means and some massive red flags. I get concerned about pushing the pac ridge poleward too fast which would want to excite the SER and potentially phase west. I think that the means may be washing the -nao a little too much, more -nao would help off set more undercutting. Looking at the plumes there are some 30 degree spreads for highs on the eps as you go later that's concerning since it's on the back of a cold shot. As a whole you cant complain about where the means are at D10-16 if you want snow
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Correct me if I'm wrong but that sounds more transient than a perpetual reinforcing cold pattern like advertised earlier. TBH while I see the cold I had a harder time in believing a more locked in pattern to begin with
 
CaryWx said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but that sounds more transient than a perpetual reinforcing cold pattern like advertised earlier. TBH while I see the cold I had a harder time in believing a more locked in pattern to begin with
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It depends what happens in the high latitudes. The 12z gfs dissolves any WC ridging but it's plenty cold with the -epo/ao/nao
 
accu35 said:
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I’m not as sharp as most of you on here and I’m learning, but Alaska has some extremely unusual cold air this year colder than normal. At some point this cold air will have to move.
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EPO set to flip bigly according to the ensembles. Along with the AO and NAO. This is what we want.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
EPO set to flip bigly according to the ensembles. Along with the AO and NAO. This is what we want.
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Yeah this why I’m never disappointed to see cold air building up in Alaska and the NW territories. It gives a source of cold air to tap into without having to depend on a cross polar flow that can squash all the southern stream energy to Cuba
 
While at first glance this doesn’t seem like the “best” pattern. It really is not bad at all. You have warming in the Arctic regions along with a big time block in Greenland (which will be reinforced by what seems to be some significant stratospheric warming (potentially another SSWE)) so you have a very active polar jet. While this may not initially lead to extremely cold air outbreaks, it does deliver plenty of “cold enough” air into much of the US especially for it being peak climo for snow.

Also the southern jet here is roaring which allows really anyone and everyone across the US to be in line for potential wintry threats.

Active southern jet brings constant waves of energy and or storms and the northern jet supplying ample cold.

Plenty of fun can happen in this pattern.
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Metwannabe said:
How about stop calling each other out, block/ignore, PM one another but leave it out of here please
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Bump and I just deleted a bunch of post. C'mon guys, each of you have knowledge and bring something to the discussion worthwhile but the cold hot, calling each other out (passive-aggressively) diminishes that.
 
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