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Pattern February 2024

Myfrotho704_ said:
But what I’m saying and all I’m saying is, it’s normal to get a few warm days like today in Feb, averages and history days it’s normal to get days like today, in February
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Seen it hit 80 in feb, downeast, during the mid 1980s. This happens 55-65 frequently. Also get very cold every feb. See-Saw is the norm
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Umm..., that has NOTHING to do with seasonal averages and patterns. Sure we'll have some of these days every winter but early Feb is still in the heart of winter. My point is I would much rather it wait to feel like spring when it actually IS spring. We'll have months of that type of weather (and way warmer) b/w mid March and mid Nov, we only get a little time with chances for cold and snow.
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I understand you don’t want these temps now but my point is that it is very very normal to have them. In fact, there has never not been a winter where we didn’t have them. You’ll have to move very far north to find a winter that doesn’t at least see a couple 60s here on the east coast, probably Southern New England.
 
NOTES from WILM NWS...


The NWS Office at Wilmington, NC (ILM airport) stands at ...2,220... consecutive days since the last recorded 1 inch or greater
snowfall for 1 day. (last...Jan 3rd, 2018, 3.4 inches fell)..
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That AK ridge progression ? EPO, AO, NAO all trying to cooperate .. cold en route..if we don’t score with this it might be time to move. This is a ?View attachment 144921
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That storm in Baja can be seen from a mile (15 days) away. That sure looks like a winter storm on the east coast a few days later. Could be the SE / could be Mid-Atlantic & New England. All ensembles have it
 
Itryatgolf said:
I'm surprised the 2m temperature isn't alot colder with advertised Alaskan ridge and -nao forming!!!
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Canada is on fire! Just cause the indicies are great, don’t mean it’s gonna cold, if there isn’t any cold to cold! Days are getting longer in AK by like 10 minutes a day! Takes awhile for cold air to reload!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Canada is on fire! Just cause the indicies are great, don’t mean it’s gonna cold, if there isn’t any cold to cold! Days are getting longer in AK by like 10 minutes a day! Takes awhile for cold air to reload!
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Yep. It's unfortunate. It will take a while. Wished the mjo would get to moving and not move slow or get stuck or whatever is going on
 
griteater said:
That storm in Baja can be seen from a mile (15 days) away. That sure looks like a winter storm on the east coast a few days later. Could be the SE / could be Mid-Atlantic & New England. All ensembles have it
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Wasn’t Feb 14’ a “Baja” Phaser ?


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griteater said:
That storm in Baja can be seen from a mile (15 days) away. That sure looks like a winter storm on the east coast a few days later. Could be the SE / could be Mid-Atlantic & New England. All ensembles have it
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Its really amazing all winter how all the models peg stuff accurately 240 hrs out.
You give them a strong el nino pattern,signal, they latch on consistently. But when we get back to a neutral state of affairs, they cant handle it and model mayhem will ensue once again.
Reminds me of the 93 superstorm. All the local news,weather channel in 1993 had it pegged 5 days out. It was so massive with three branches of the jet phasing. Beleive it was called AVN and Eta models back then. Have no clue as general public had no way to access anything of the sort, pre internet.
 
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NCSNOW said:
Its really amazing all winter how all the models peg stuff accurately 240 hrs out.
You give them a strong el nino pattern,signal, they latch on consistently. But when we get back to a neutral state of affairs, they cant handle it and model mayhem will ensue once again.
Reminds me of the 93 superstorm. All the local news,weather channel in 1993 had it pegged 5 days out. It was so massive with three branches of the jet phasing. Beleive it was called AVN and Eta models back then. Have no clue as general public had no way to access anything of the sort, pre internet.
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You're right. WxSouth (Robert) used to talk about how one of the things that he didn't like about El Ninos was how slow the waves move. With Neutral, and especially Nina, the northern stream is more dominant of course and so there tends be smaller waves and faster moving waves, and he seemed to like how that made things more unpredictable and interesting
 
NCSNOW said:
Seen it hit 80 in feb, downeast, during the mid 1980s. This happens 55-65 frequently. Also get very cold every feb. See-Saw is the norm
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February 1989 had temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s in CLT the Tuesday and Wednesday before President’s Day weekend. Then by Friday evening a major sleet storm moved in that gave the metro area 2-3” of sleet that finished as a burst of heavy snow on Saturday evening. Then by the following Tuesday it was back in the 60s only to have another storm 2 days later that gave the area 4-8” of snow
 
NCSNOW said:
Its really amazing all winter how all the models peg stuff accurately 240 hrs out.
You give them a strong el nino pattern,signal, they latch on consistently. But when we get back to a neutral state of affairs, they cant handle it and model mayhem will ensue once again.
Reminds me of the 93 superstorm. All the local news,weather channel in 1993 had it pegged 5 days out. It was so massive with three branches of the jet phasing. Beleive it was called AVN and Eta models back then. Have no clue as general public had no way to access anything of the sort, pre internet.
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The old golden rule was called the double E rule… if the ETA snd the Euro were in lock step.. take it to the bank..
not sure, but the ETA was an older version of the NAM..
 
KyloG said:
It’s cute and all to gaze at the day 12+ ensembles but eventually we going to need some op runs with the magic.

This ain’t it.

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png
 
griteater said:
That one entered the U.S. in N California before moving east and amplifying over the southeast

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That one stil chaps my ass! I think the Euro was literally spitting out 24” totals 24 hours out for me! Got 1” of sleet with 1-4” dusting at end! ?
 
griteater said:
Here is a set of 6 storms that I have matching this type of setup of split flow with a low latitude wave running west to east into Baja. The composite images are when the wave hits the Baja coast

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Ahh the great Southeastern Snowstorm February 9-11 1973. The biggest Snowstorm I've ever seen here in Greenwood, SC. Over a foot imby. It was wonderful.
 
That Trough gonna Break down and the Ridge gonna move away from the NW. Therefore the Pattern Change everyone is talking about the 2nd half of Feb will be muted. I'd bet right now most innthe SE especially outside of the Mountains will likely see highs in the 40s and 50s, With several 60s thrown in. I guess we move on to Magnificent March as Spring Approaches.

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Need to dislodge that cold air over Alaska where yesterday high temps were in the 40-50 below zero range. Break off some of that and send it south!

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rburrel2 said:
Could you draw it up any better than this? Picture frame worthy

View attachment 144949View attachment 144950
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I’m not trying to be rude, but this is basically a repeat of how we’ve failed the past 4 years. The PV is too far west and it will not work for us without supreme luck IMO. That’s a western southeast and Mid-Atlantic north winter look IMO. PV must be anchored further east for us to score (but then not too far east or we fail that way too).
 
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