Pattern February 2024

[Chazwin]

The uncertainty in the modeling seems apparent. Past day 5, it's all over the place.

FWIW anywhere in or near the COD should be pretty good. No?

Yes or even low amp 5 and 6. Now keep in mind that I’m speaking for winter storms in my area but there have been a number of significant winter storms over the years in low amp 5-6, which was honestly surprising to me to me when I looked it up. Where we really don’t want to be here in the southeast is high amp 4-6. February 2021 had really everything going for us with a
-AO/-NAO/+ PNA combo except the MJO going high amp phase 6 when it had been low amp or COD for the two previous months. If you see high 4-6, you can just about the SER is gonna flew strong and the cold will never go east of the Apps.

 

[Brent]

Going to be pushing 70 by the 10th around here

It was 74 here today. We're really living up the false spring this year

 

[Myfrotho704_]

First time observing a ens because I’ve lost a ---- ton of motivation, but judging off these looks, first look, looks favorable for the upper/NW SE perhaps, the mid west/Ohio valley, and MA/NE, lower heights in the Atlantic could perhaps suppress the height field a bit, but the source here initially is still pacific polar, it lacks cold air initially

This one right here would be the one if it was to produce, TPV extension into the eastern US trough probably means a pretty suppressed height field, with cold in place. which would favor southern solutions. Also can see the southern stream undercutting. The NE US trough/Baja low couplet is an old classic, but do they happen anymore ? Guess we will see. If it doesn’t we can add “Baja lows don’t work like they use to” to the “it doesn’t work like it used to” list
It worked in dec 2018 though

 

[Tarheel1]

Gfs bringing the cold

 

[NCSNOW]

The 0z Gefs,6z Gefs and 0z eps have some snow signal NC. Very quiet/low volume, but its there, for what its worth. We Got 13 days to see if it increases, verefies lol.

That's the good news: Here's the bad news I'm afraid and I hope I'm wrong, but I fully expect a repeat of Mid January for Mid February with the upcoming pattern. These pics should look familiar to many east of the apps

 

[KyloG]

Day 10 still sucks…until this super terrific pattern gets inside day 10 it’s winter over. We’ve seen this how many time over the years…”cant miss patterns”.

At this point, Feb 12th, we have just over 2 weeks left to score. Just how lucky do you feel.

 

[KyloG]

Pattern change

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Pattern change

View attachment 144820

Looks like temps respond 3-4 days later. So I think at best we’re eyeing some time around the 18th-20th before a chance at a chance comes into view. After that, IFF models are to be believed, we get a quick a 8-10 day window to end the streak. I’d put the odds around 1/1000 that a poster on here between GSP and RAL ends the streak this year.

 

[KyloG]

Looks like temps respond 3-4 days later. So I think at best we’re eyeing some time around the 18th-20th before a chance at a chance comes into view. After that, IFF models are to be believed, we get a quick a 8-10 day window to end the streak. I’d put the odds around 1/1000 that a poster on here between GSP and RAL ends the streak this year. View attachment 144821View attachment 144822

100% agree...but I am a little more optimistic on the snow front...maybe 1/100.

JB's favorite metric...SOI has tanked and should continue. Cold east coming

 

[NCSNOW]

The pattern definitely shifts 2/13 into 2/14 on the models. Kylo you are using 5 day averages that get skewed by the 850 torch fest 2/10 2/11 2/12. But make no mistake after we get a cutter past us, front comes through and its Below Normal.

 

[griteater]

”cant miss patterns”.

These are meteorologically impossible in the SE

 

[rburrel2]

Like ncsnow pointed out... it's nice to see all 3 ensemble suites starting to show hits in the long range. This winter has sucked, and it sucks we've lost the first two weeks of February. But everything still looks on track for the 2nd half of February to deliver.

 

[KyloG]

The pattern definitely shifts 2/13 into 2/14 on the models. Kylo you are using 5 day averages that get skewed by the 850 torch fest 2/10 2/11 2/12. But make no mistake after we get a cutter past us, front comes through and its Below Normal.

Pattern change starts now...it takes time to erode that pain in the butt GOA ridge. We also need the EPO to go negative as the conus is flooded with warm air. It will take time for the cold to push. And like you said, 2/13-14 is when the PNA/EPA go +/- and then a few days after we should see temps respond...so roughly 2/18-20. It's not at a snap of a finger.

And yes, look at 5day mean to know if cold is entrenched.

 

[coldfront22]

I would say 1/500 Chance sometime between Feb19-28. It will most likely be the mountains to I-40 North, I'm afraid for us East of the Mountains. Just hoping no repeat of last February where we never had a chance.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

IDK. I'm unusually stoked for the thirty days starting 02/15. Generally for MBY, I throw in the towel on 02/20 unless something wild is progged just around the corner. That said, all long-range signs point to an unusually good pattern that I'm hopeful will deliver even here in Ga.

Sure, we'll have some mild days in between systems. That's the nature of living in the SE especially as we approach spring. But, there look to be several unusually cold shots deep into the CONUS on a cross-polar flow during the time of year when wave lengths shorten and we enter into a naturally stormy time of year.

The end of this winter will be here soon enough. Here's to hoping that 2024 goes down as an epic snow season for all by closing out this month with some monster hits and we get an early start to winter to end the year with the pending Nina come next December, (My favorite time of year for lasting snow).

Cheers.

 

[ForsythSnow]

IDK. I'm unusually stoked for the thirty days starting 02/15. Generally for MBY, I throw in the towel on 02/20 unless something wild is progged just around the corner. That said, all long-range signs point to an unusually good pattern that I'm hopeful will deliver even here in Ga.

Sure, we'll have some mild days in between systems. That's the nature of living in the SE especially as we approach spring. But, there look to be several unusually cold shots deep into the CONUS on a cross-polar flow during the time of year when wave lengths shorten and we enter into a naturally stormy time of year.

The end of this winter will be here soon enough. Here's to hoping that 2024 goes down as an epic snow season for all by closing out this month with some monster hits and we get an early start to winter to end the year with the pending Nina come next December, (My favorite time of year for lasting snow).

Cheers.

I'd say I've got about 2 weeks before I say give it up outside the mountains for N GA unless we see an actual storm tracking or something unusual occur since that's the only way to get good snow outside Feb. SSWE's won't save anyone at this point so things need to fall into place soon or it's not happening this year once more.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I'd say I've got about 2 weeks before I say give it up outside the mountains for N GA unless we see an actual storm tracking or something unusual occur since that's the only way to get good snow outside Feb. SSWE's won't save anyone at this point so things need to fall into place soon or it's not happening this year once more.

That's fair. And as I said, 02/20 is usually my cutoff for winter weather interest. I just think that by the third week of this month, winter storms and rumors of winter storms will be prolific as all of the indices point to a loaded end to winter. If so, y'all are stuck with me here longer than usual lol.

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[weatherfide]

That's fair. And as I said, 02/20 is usually my cutoff for winter weather interest. I just think that by the third week of this month, winter storms and rumors of winter storms will be prolific as all of the indices point to a loaded end to winter. If so, y'all are stuck with me here longer than usual lol.

I think the upcoming cold pattern is going to produce for TN and NC. I'm gearing up to chase. GA is out of luck this year.

 

[griteater]

No the weeklies aren't gospel, but this kind of lines up with the timing that I think has the best potential (Feb 19-26)

 

[griteater]

^ Factor in a bit of can-kicking and maybe you roll it to Feb 22-29....but anyway, that's the highest period of interest IMO

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

^ Factor in a bit of can-kicking and maybe you roll it to Feb 22-29....but anyway, that's the highest period of interest IMO

I’ll be in Avery county the 22nd and 23rd so I’m all-in

 

[KyloG]

Geez, is the snow depth really that bleak...




I guess temps do matter.

 

[Inghamusic]

 

[NWMSGuy]

View attachment 144853

From a Teleconnection standpoint, how would this look for the Southeast?

 

[KyloG]

View attachment 144854

We’re gonna need a cold core ULL or mega phaser if we want a chance at a chance

we are going to need a few cutters to cut and drop a blanket of snow to our north...should give us a solid 2-3 days to score

 

[Snowfan]

Looks like the “get cutters to drop snow to our north” phase starts late next week.

we are going to need a few cutters to cut and drop a blanket of snow to our north...should give us a solid 2-3 days to score

 

[KyloG]

Holy crap…Grits strat analysis ain’t no joke ?

We nao

 

[CaryWx]

The window has always been to begin around Valentines with chances increasing from that period onward as the window opens more thru the month. I personally think ~17th-~25th is best opportunity locally for me

 

[BullCityWx]

GEPS with a crazy run in the teleconnections area

 

[BullCityWx]

Pretty wild

 

[KyloG]

But...the GEFS is kind of meh on 2/15. EP0 still positive. That's why I'm not ready to start breakdancing on day 13+ model runs.

 

[KyloG]

Just to compare...day 13...Feb 15th. With the GEFS there is still much work to do....GEPS we peek for our shovels.

I don't know which one is right....probably a blend.

 

[Mitch West]

But...the GEFS is kind of meh on 2/15. EP0 still positive. That's why I'm not ready to start breakdancing on day 13+ model runs.

View attachment 144870

I really don’t think that’s our time period anyways. It’s going to have to happen the last 10 days of February or either we obviously are banking on March snow.

 

[KyloG]

I really don’t think that’s our time period anyways. It’s going to have to happy the last 10 days of February or either we obviously are banking on March snow.

After the first few days of March most are done...so yeah, at best we are looking at 10 day window. We going to need the pattern to be perfect and we are going to need biblical luck.

 

[CaryWx]

March will be too late except for some anomalous (dripping snow). Saw a decent one once when I was in Greenville, NC back in '83. Late Feb's a little better but last good one was Feb 2015(?) which happened on 23rd-25th--That's doable but getting rough late in the year.

 

[EastmanGAWX]

For those of us in the Deep South, I think that we all would take a repeat of February 25-26 1914 and be not severely disappointed with no winter weather for the next year or two. The law of averages says that the entire region is well overdue for a classic late winter storm, I keep maintaining that this current snow drought is going to be broken in a big way when the time finally transpires for it to end.

 

[NoSnowATL]

For those of us in the Deep South, I think that we all would take a repeat of February 25-26 1914 and be not severely disappointed with no winter weather for the next year or two. The law of averages says that the entire region is well overdue for a classic late winter storm, I keep maintaining that this current snow drought is going to be broken in a big way when the time finally transpires for it to end.

I mean it did happening over 100 years ago so its possible. I would consider that as overdue.

 

[KyloG]

Wasn’t this showing around Valentine’s Day weeks back? I swear we are can kicking again.

There is always can kickage…it always takes longer to come out of a warm crappy pattern. Latest GEFs

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Pattern change inc………View attachment 144877

That lobe of cold air is our last shot. However it rotates in or out is what our hope is hanging on. We don’t have time for that thing to retrograde back around the pole. By the time it makes it back our days are longer, our sun is hotter, and the Bradford pear trees are in full bloom.