• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

Arcc said:
This is probably why we are seeing the much colder run and alludes to SD’s point about the first and then second storm. The second one would probably be our first real shot. That is a powerful cutter around Valentine’s Day on the ensembles which will help set up the second with cold air.

View attachment 144747
Click to expand...
Which is exactly what happened to kick start the pattern last month.
 
0z CFS shows a bunch missed timing/bad luck scenarios ( shocking I know) out through March 4th. Biggest cold plunge I found was right here. So don't start planting those flowers just yet, We will trend away from the strong el nino excess qpf as we roll into and through spring. Someone let Shettley know. I'm expecting more nada burgers on spring severe over my way. The overhyping of Hurricane season is on deck as we roll into summer. Hopefully next year we can get a neutral signal and get away from el nino and La nina.
prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png
 
For the record, I haven't sent the punter onto the field yet. But I'm telling him to warm up. See how it looks in 7-9 days from now. This is for frozen precip / NC Snow Modelology purposes.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
El Niño winters are usually better than La Niña winters here. El Niño winters definitely favor big dog storms for ATL if you look back at past El Niño yrs. 2009/2010 is one of the best examples. I saw measurable snowfall from JFM. A rare feat in and of itself here. However, that El Niño was moderate iirc, it definitely wasn’t as strong as this winter or the one in 2015/16 (which was a horrible winter in the snow department for us) I’m sure whether it’s west or east based plays a factor as well. La Niña winters can be good for ATL too if they lean more on the weaker side. 2010/2011 was the best one producing snow every month from DJF.

EDIT: The argument that El Niño winters are backloaded is valid. Even though we got an inch of snow in January 2010, our biggest snowfall happened a month later in mid February. My point is, some of us are gonna have to be a lot more patient than usual to see measurable snowfall. (Mid Feb-Mid March) It sucks because I would rather we got something on the board around here during peak climo in January, but it is what it is. We’ll just have to keep waiting and seeing. I always hold out until March before moving onto next winter’s prospects.
Click to expand...
I'm in the upstate of SC and I can remember after those two great back to back winters that maybe we were going to go back to the "great winters of the 60's and 70's," but that sure didn't happen now did it?
 
Last edited:
NCSNOW said:
For the record, I haven't sent the punter onto the field yet. But I'm telling him to warm up. See how it looks in 7-9 days from now. This is for frozen precip / NC Snow Modelology purposes.
Click to expand...
I think we'll begin to see any potential fruit from this pattern by the Sunday model runs
 
KyloG said:
It’s tough to get below freezing in Februarys.

Nice frisbee golf weather at least.

View attachment 144753
Click to expand...
Spreads near the 15th thru 17th are gonna be huge and dampen it. The fact it shows 43 on the 17th is nice. As we get closer we will get outliers tossed. Lows will be below freezing with that look at H5. At a 12-16 day lead ensemble averages are never going to be overly extreme in either direction as you fall towards the average. Within 7 days that changes
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Spreads near the 15th thru 17th are gonna be huge and dampen it. The fact it shows 43 on the 17th is nice. As we get closer we will get outliers tossed. Lows will be below freezing with that look at H5
Click to expand...
and this is why you should be no attention to surface temperatures past 10 days
 
BullCityWx said:
Last five days of the GEPS run, it looks like no members of that entire suite had a +AO
Click to expand...
I think my greatest fear for late feb is missing out around valentines day then getting an over bearing-AO/NAO/+PNA triplet then it's March 7th. The good thing is the stj punching under the western ridge may mitigate any dry suppression
 
EPO positive into valentines give or take. After that we could see temps really plummet, but that will take a few days.

So yeah, we can ignore ensembles for temps until we don’t.

IMG_0560.png
 
CaryWx said:
SnowGoose69 predicting more like ~2/17 for southeast. ~2/14 for bos/nyc
Click to expand...
Yep...that's what I've been saying and been getting trolled all day for it. Give us a solid 10-14 days to score.

PNA/EPO combo going +/- just before Valentines...will take a few days for cold to push.

So we are still on week 3 really.

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-6788800.png
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
When you speak of a good 500mb pattern she comin for sure. Question is will the surface really respond? It likely will after a few days. But how long will it last? And the big question, is the snow comin?
Click to expand...
It'll take a few days to maybe 5 at most. With how quick this develops, I don't think this will take as long as what temp anomalies are reflecting on ensembles. When you open up the cross polar flow like that, she's coming down regardless of how much snow is on the ground in Canada. The pattern itself like Eric mentioned has legs through early March. I get the hesitation, we've been here & done that & got the rug pulled out time and time again. And i don't know if it'll snow, but we will have a couple chances. With each state you climb North, it obviously gets better and better.
 
KyloG said:
Yep...that's what I've been saying and been getting trolled all day for it. Give us a solid 10-14 days to score.

PNA/EPO combo going +/- just before Valentines...will take a few days for cold to push.

So we are still on week 3 really.

View attachment 144762
Click to expand...
I think the best timeframe for an active southern stream is going to be on the front end of this, say Feb 20-29, can see that on the models and that makes sense based on the Pac Jet > Subtropical Jet surge that is showing up then, sourced from the N Africa > SE Asia high pressure migration. Into March, we're not seeing new sources for momentum into the Pac Jet, so we'll have to see how that shakes out. But being on the front end with the southern stream would be a positive given Feb into March climo

Feb 23 looks Tiger Woods "better than most" I'd say

Feb 1 Euro Wk.png
 
griteater said:
I think the best timeframe for an active southern stream is going to be on the front end of this, say Feb 20-29, can see that on the models and that makes sense based on the Pac Jet > Subtropical Jet surge that is showing up then, sourced from the N Africa > SE Asia high pressure migration. Into March, we're not seeing new sources for momentum into the Pac Jet, so we'll have to see how that shakes out. But being on the front end with the southern stream would be a positive given Feb into March climo

Feb 23 looks Tiger Woods "better than most" I'd say

View attachment 144765
Click to expand...
Yep people can bump post this if I'm wrong that'll be fine but we should go system right before valentines day it's likely north, a credible threat right after valentines day as the cold is building in, probably too much northern stream 17-21st, stj pushes under the western ridge with probably 2 maybe 3 shots 2/23-3/3
 
The freaking out of going to be tasty when the models start seeing the eventual IO convection. That'll nudge the aleutian trough east closer to the WC and the longer range means will erroneously extend wavelengths east and warm the SE on the means only to have to shorten then closer to verification likely warming the SW canada northern rockies and upper Midwest and cooling the SE. I can hear the the source region is too warm, it's warm in north Dakota type posts now
 
SD said:
The freaking out of going to be tasty when the models start seeing the eventual IO convection. That'll nudge the aleutian trough east closer to the WC and the longer range means will erroneously extend wavelengths east and warm the SE on the means only to have to shorten then closer to verification likely warming the SW canada northern rockies and upper Midwest and cooling the SE. I can hear the the source region is too warm, it's warm in north Dakota type posts now
Click to expand...
yep.but can u blame us...i think thisnext but is ganna really favor east of miss river and maybe wayy east
 
Tarheelwx said:
I’ll preface this statement with the fact that I really don’t pay attention to the ensembles except in the winter and it is when they are posted here or on the other board. But, once again the operational outperformed the ensembles. The GFS went south quite a while ago as so many folks pulled out the “disregard the operational at this range and use the ensembles” argument/strategy. Just saying that more often than not when I hear this statement, the operational(s) ends up being more accurate. Has anyone else seen to have experienced the same?

TW
Click to expand...
Ole goofy isn't as bad as it's let on sometimes.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
We're about to find out how well we do with a very low amplitude 6&7 (or even within the COD).
ps2png-worker-commands-78fb8c5f97-465t5-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-IzdHSB.png
Click to expand...
This is been pointed out by Webb and others a lot but these RMM charts have really not done a good job at predicting MJO progression this season. If you look at the blended progression chart available on NOAA’s website, 10 days ago was showing it in a high amp phase 6 right now but the tropical forcing was showing that it would be in mid to low amp phase 7 which that’s where we are. If you look at the tropical forcing now it would put is in low amp phase 8 heading towards 1. Just putting that out there that you can’t take these RMM charts as a definite, especially this year.
 
Chazwin said:
This is been pointed out by Webb and others a lot but these RMM charts have really not done a good job at predicting MJO progression this season. If you look at the blended progression chart available on NOAA’s website, 10 days ago was showing it in a high amp phase 6 right now but the tropical forcing was showing that it would be in mid to low amp phase 7 which that’s where we are. If you look at the tropical forcing now it would put is in low amp phase 8 heading towards 1. Just putting that out there that you can’t take these RMM charts as a definite, especially this year.
Click to expand...
The uncertainty in the modeling seems apparent. Past day 5, it's all over the place.

FWIW anywhere in or near the COD should be pretty good. No?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top