Pattern February 2024

[Nam0806]

starting to think this one is over...i know i know too early...but it looks horibly supressed

Way too early to be making any final determinations on this one, really for anyone in the southeastern United States.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

18Z GFS not quite as suppressed, but less cold too.

 

[Snowfan]

Suppression isn’t the issue. Getting the cold air down is the issue.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GFS is so close to a nuke. I mean feet of fantasy snow into the Carolinas. It’s wild what we’re flirting with here

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Dews are so low, as depicted all it would take is precip to amp up and the column would crash accross the board

 

[DopplerWx]

Dews are so low, as depicted all it would take is precip to amp up and the column would crash accross the board

If you wanted to draw up a look 150hrs out this would be it to a T. Feels like Christmas 2010 but with higher potential

 

[Jan88]

GFS is so close to a nuke. I mean feet of fantasy snow into the Carolinas. It’s wild what we’re flirting with here View attachment 143923View attachment 143924View attachment 143922

I would say at 7 days out the track is not yet decided

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

not to beat a dead horse but GFS has some single digit dews to the SC/NC border with an already cold surface and a bomb lit in the gulf

 

[Chazwin]

18Z GFS not quite as suppressed, but less cold too.

Cold push still looks strong… very low dewpoints so any precip would crash the column. Again with that strong a STJ, suppression is the last of my worries. Getting that feed of cold/dry air most important

 

[Jan88]

not to beat a dead horse but GFS has some single digit dews to the SC/NC border with an already cold surface and a bomb lit in the gulf

Lot of potential here

 

[Stevo24]

Cold push still looks strong… very low dewpoints so any precip would crash the column. Again with that strong a STJ, suppression is the last of my worries. Getting that feed of cold/dry air most important

At what point this week would you start getting concerned if you still saw suppression?

 

[Chazwin]

not to beat a dead horse but GFS has some single digit dews to the SC/NC border with an already cold surface and a bomb lit in the gulf

Exactly, personally at this range, I’m not even really paying attention to what the 2m temps look like. I’m focusing on the 500mb looks, 850 temps and surface dewpoints. The fact that single digit dewpoints are showing at the NC/SC border is the best indicator of just how strong the CAD potential is.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

At what point this week would you start getting concerned if you still saw suppression?

Tuesday or Wednesday

 

[Chazwin]

At what point this week would you start getting concerned if you still saw suppression?

In all honesty about Friday… I know that seems close, but this just has all the earmarks of a set up that things trend NW considerably in the last 72 hours.

 

[BullCityWx]

In all honesty about Friday… I know that seems close, but this just has all the earmarks of a set up that things trend NW considerably in the last 72 hours.

Christmas 2010

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

At what point this week would you start getting concerned if you still saw suppression?

Friday night

 

[Metwannabe]

In all honesty about Friday… I know that seems close, but this just has all the earmarks of a set up that things trend NW considerably in the last 72 hours.

Yeah wouldn't take much for this to be much further NW that's for sure

 

[Chazwin]

Christmas 2010

Christmas 2010, February 2010, heck even January 2017… this is southern stream system with a strong STJ.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Cold push still looks strong… very low dewpoints so any precip would crash the column. Again with that strong a STJ, suppression is the last of my worries. Getting that feed of cold/dry air most important

Yeah, it's still cold enough. Verbatim, just barely from my perspective a couple of hundred miles to your SW.

 

[Myfrotho704_]