That big D7 phase on the euro is interesting. Probably not enough cold yanked in behind it for the 15th/16th to get us started early
Which looks like exactly where said cinnabon looks to be headed by day 11.Ridge axis from the WC up through he NWT is one of the better precursors to E of the apps cold that I've found. Withthis at D10 no need to really over analyze it but those E of a montgomery to atlanta to knoxville line would want the cinnabon north of MN farther east. You guys would look good in this setup. View attachment 145244
Been busy for the last couple hours and just saw this… that’s a January/February 2003, February 2010 like block.
However, outdoor fireside chats will be the bomb-diggity well into March. ?️ ? ?Euro Weeklies into mid-March want to rot the cold trough right on top of us. I hope you don't coach Little League Baseball
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Are we losing the west ridge in that first graph as it gets towards the 20th?This is what I want to see. PV tucking beautifully under the Greenland block, window would be wide open after this for a southern slider.
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Late in the run, hints of something appearing.
Are we losing the west ridge in that first graph as it gets towards the 20th?
I mentioned this earlier, you kinda want that +PNA to fluctuate some and not stay strongly positive. Often times it’s those periods it heads towards neutral that the southeast scores a good storm
Would love the get that deep TPV lobe to move northeast slowly in Tandem with rising heights right behind the TPV itself around the lakes with some southern stream moving east, some CMCE members did that, that would get us a classic deep cold wedge setup. -NAO this go around looks oriented more NE to SW which is more favorable to keep the TPV or a TPV extension around the 50/50 area, and hang around at that.Possibly (it's so far out we're losing a lot of things to smoothed out means), but we're also gaining undercutting energy moving in at a favorable latitude with a locked-in PV in prime position. The time period just after the 20th that I believe @griteater has also been mentioning looks to be our time if we can keep the trends going.
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Ridge axis from the WC up through he NWT is one of the better precursors to E of the apps cold that I've found. Withthis at D10 no need to really over analyze it but those E of a montgomery to atlanta to knoxville line would want the cinnabon north of MN farther east. You guys would look good in this setup. View attachment 145244
Which looks like exactly where said cinnabon looks to be headed by day 11. View attachment 145245
I've mentioned a lot of time periods, so there's no way I can miss hahaha. No really, everything is falling in place, and like mentioned last night, it's just going to come down to the smaller details going forward I think.Possibly (it's so far out we're losing a lot of things to smoothed out means), but we're also gaining undercutting energy moving in at a favorable latitude with a locked-in PV in prime position. The time period just after the 20th that I believe @griteater has also been mentioning looks to be our time if we can keep the trends going.
Great in-depth post as always Grit!I've mentioned a lot of time periods, so there's no way I can miss hahaha. No really, everything is falling in place, and like mentioned last night, it's just going to come down to the smaller details going forward I think.
Here is a 500mb comparison for days 10-15 on the GEFS / EPS / CMCE.
The GEFS is injecting the most momentum into the Pac Jet and has this Super El Nino look to it with the more intense and farther east Aleutian Low anomalies. That breaks down some of the western N America ridge strength; and on the Atlantic side, the -NAO isn't quite as robust
The CMCE is the weakest of the 3 with the Pac Jet and has the strongest W N Amer ridge and -NAO signature.
As mentioned before, I think the EPS is the one to ride with this El Nino / Split / HL Blocking setup. Given that it lies in between the other 2 gives it even more credence.
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Accordingly, here is the temperature comparison where the CMCE is the coldest by far. The CMCE is the place where I'd personally like to see us in the end. I'd like to see the GEFS and EPS trend colder...and if there ever is a scenario where models trend colder, it's with heavy -NAO blocking signatures like this.
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If this were to not work out on the front side of the nice pattern, I don't think that's going to be the end of it. The Euro Weeklies here make a beautiful move in dropping the Greenland blocking anomalies to the west south, while the Pac Jet backs off some and western ridging isn't getting impinged
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What’s the significance of that? Asking for a friendI love seeing that 558dm benchmark digging into north AL.
Euro showed something similar yesterday but now it cuts it more north.Would be cool if the day 8 storm could do something like this. Anything helps View attachment 145272
Would take in a heartbeat, would be nice to score with a pattern flipperWould be cool if the day 8 storm could do something like this. Anything helps View attachment 145272
Step it down one time. We’d like a good snowpack at least over PA to anchor our ? highWould be cool if the day 8 storm could do something like this. Anything helps View attachment 145272
What’s the significance of that? Asking for a friend
Just hope it isn’t to suppressive by sticking around, but normally they trend quicker closer to go time. Give me a Miller B mixed bag with front end snow to mix, that’s the only way to win seemingly the last decade. but that’s a good lookWe just ain’t gonna talk about this? 50/50 low ain’t budging…honk honkView attachment 145286
We just ain’t gonna talk about this? 50/50 low ain’t budging…honk honkView attachment 145286