18z EPS only goes out to 144 but looked like the press in the NE was ever so slightly deeper/ west. Overall height field was suppressed a bit ahead of the wave compared to 12z
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Oh I get you. Feel free to discuss it here. It's totally fine.
I was reviewing some of the past snowstorms. Another analog looks to be February 1969, which has a very similar wave orientation to the 18z GFS. That one stayed all snow down to GSP and mixed with sleet and freezing rain to Atlanta.
I don't think this has the high-end potential to be a board-wide storm because that would require a phase when the current setup fits more into the Miller B category (CAD favored). A phase would be a weird hybrid, but you never know. The 50/50 low between the two is nearly identical, which is the most important piece, in my opinion, and what has gone wrong often in the past.
Considering the wave is over the Pacific, it wouldn't surprise me if the low trended to be more amped. But then again, you can't always trust that what happened in the past will ALWAYS happen in the present. Although, it is a good bet to expect the models to change by tomorrow, better or worse.
Personally, though, I would be fine if the amplification began at 00z.
I don't think this has the high-end potential to be a board-wide storm because that would require a phase when the current setup fits more into the Miller B category (CAD favored). A phase would be a weird hybrid, but you never know. The 50/50 low between the two is nearly identical, which is the most important piece, in my opinion, and what has gone wrong often in the past.
Considering the wave is over the Pacific, it wouldn't surprise me if the low trended to be more amped. But then again, you can't always trust that what happened in the past will ALWAYS happen in the present. Although, it is a good bet to expect the models to change by tomorrow, better or worse.
Personally, though, I would be fine if the amplification began at 00z.
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Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Before my time but would love to see one like that again. That one set the all time SC snowfall record of 29 inches at Ceaser's Head.
griteater
Member
GEFS Ext follows up the Euro Weeklies with a good run as well...pretty much the same evolution here for Feb 11 to Feb 22. Both look favorable into early March as well
lol at hour 60 you can already see how the cold feed on the icon is gonna be stronger
iGRXY
Member
ICON definitely further south with the cold push even early on over eastern Canada
Um so what the heck happened everywhere else
You’re looking at it. Supressed
Looks like the ICON has joined the suppression club.
Damn. Yeah a closed cold ULL near Long Island would definitely suppress a wave. Lol 
It’s amazing how many ways we can find to mess something up. ?
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
It looks to me like it is pretty close to phasing? If it did, would that not pull precipitation north and intensify the storm ?
GFS digging the northern stream more.. not sure if that’s a good thing in this case anymore, but let’s see the lat the SS wave handoff occurs 
Happens late
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
we need this to happen at midnight Saturday?
This is different 
This run is screaming less suppression, weaker vortex to our NE, the wave looks to come out at a higher latitude
rburrel2
Member
Looks better for the suppression issues down the road and maybe more of a CAD/icy look? I already regret saying I was worried about suppression ten minutes ago, jinxed it.