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Pattern February 2024

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You are exactly right. Gulf low with overrunning on the north side is the best case scenario. But man that confluence is stout. As modeled it's going to be hard for that wave to come north to do that. Now we know these models are not correct this far out and that confluence probably will relax some. But if it does will we even be cold enough then? If it's not cold enough it really won't matter if it's Miller A, Miller B, late bloomer, earlier phaser or even a perfect track.
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I actually feel pretty good about the cold push right now, especially with the snow cover and cold in south east Canada that there to be tapped… the dewpoints we’re seeing even in the ensembles look great. As for the Gulf low moving far enough north to produce overrunning, I think there’s a good chance of it simply because of how strong that STJ is right now. As Webb has pointed out, there’s certainly some things looking in our favor
 
Chazwin said:
I actually feel pretty good about the cold push right now, especially with the snow cover and cold in south east Canada that there to be tapped… the dewpoints we’re seeing even in the ensembles look great. As for the Gulf low moving far enough north to produce overrunning, I think there’s a good chance of it simply because of how strong that STJ is right now. As Webb has pointed out, there’s certainly some things looking in our favor
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It seems to retract pretty quickly just based off of current models. If we are to get any accumulation I don’t see it lasting long but beggars can’t be choosers and I’ll take what I can get. Hopefully this isn’t the last chance this winter!
 
jeremyt said:
It seems to retract pretty quickly just based off of current models. If we are to get any accumulation I don’t see it lasting long but beggars can’t be choosers and I’ll take what I can get. Hopefully this isn’t the last chance this winter!
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Jeremyt, rule of thumb, don't ever bet against a CAD/Wedge. Models always eroded the CAD and wedge very quickly.
 
jeremyt said:
It seems to retract pretty quickly just based off of current models. If we are to get any accumulation I don’t see it lasting long but beggars can’t be choosers and I’ll take what I can get. Hopefully this isn’t the last chance this winter!
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Honestly that is the best type of accumulation IMO.
 
SnowwxAtl said:
Usually, and I am using that word lightly, the closer we get the time frame the wedge becomes stronger and even filter into East AL. I haven't seen that in awhile but it is very possible.
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I remember the February 2014 storm, the wedge pushed into east Alabama and you could actually see it getting pulled into the gulf low as it passed
 
Chazwin said:
I remember the February 2014 storm, the wedge pushed into east Alabama and you could actually see it getting pulled into the gulf low as it passed
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Exactly, I recalled that storm very well. my area was expected to get close to .50 worth of ice, especially east of ATL. However, that wedge was so dang strong and strout (slightly undermodeled) that is went from freezing rain and quickly to sleet most the storm before turning into some brief snow. I was worried about power going out at my house, but the sleet saved the day. I prefer the Jan '14 storm, but we live in the south. You take what you can get. But that storm was so sleety...lol
 
Chazwin said:
I actually feel pretty good about the cold push right now, especially with the snow cover and cold in south east Canada that there to be tapped… the dewpoints we’re seeing even in the ensembles look great. As for the Gulf low moving far enough north to produce overrunning, I think there’s a good chance of it simply because of how strong that STJ is right now. As Webb has pointed out, there’s certainly some things looking in our favor
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Yeah, if the GFS is generally right, we won't be dealing with cutters, runners, or Miller Bs. The 50/50 strengthens and stays virtually in place. Ridging develops to the north and helps to keep it in place. The southern stream has no choice but to be directed underneath. This looks to be a classic Gulf low scenario that doesn't climb through the Piedmont, short of massive phasing....at least that's what is being shown now. It's been a long time.

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_32.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, if the GFS is generally right, we won't be dealing with cutters, runners, or Miller Bs. The 50/50 strengthens and stays virtually in place. Ridging develops to the north and helps to keep it in place. The southern stream has no choice but to be directed underneath. This looks to be a classic Gulf low scenario that doesn't climb through the Piedmont, short of massive phasing....at least that's what is being shown now. It's been a long time.

View attachment 143937
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Yes and really the 12z EURO is showing this same thing… it just for some reason had no moisture to the west and northwest of the low
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
According to Jonathan…
32537c083dd6f477b6ce7126b08e055a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Obviously a Dr. is far more versed than me in model interpretation, but how many models are showing this scenario? Are these outliers and he is showing possibility or is he dying on this hill like some here saying it’s impossible?
 
Flotown said:
think us out west is out of this one...even if it goes a little north just dont see the cold
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A week away and you think we are out of the game? Operational runs will mess with your head this far out. It wouldn’t take but a couple degrees for this to go pound town for Alabama especially if we get a 992/993 low in the gulf. This has big potential to be a board wide hit.
 
jeremyt said:
Obviously a Dr. is far more versed than me in model interpretation, but how many models are showing this scenario? Are these outliers and he is showing possibility or is he dying on this hill like some here saying it’s impossible?
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He is just showing it is possible that suppression may not happen like some are currently suggesting


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
jeremyt said:
Obviously a Dr. is far more versed than me in model interpretation, but how many models are showing this scenario? Are these outliers and he is showing possibility or is he dying on this hill like some here saying it’s impossible?
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I thinks he’s simply just showing 2 model runs and not really stating anything else.
 
jeremyt said:
Obviously a Dr. is far more versed than me in model interpretation, but how many models are showing this scenario? Are these outliers and he is showing possibility or is he dying on this hill like some here saying it’s impossible?
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Jon is smart and used to post here. But you don't need a degree to understand that there are quite a few scenarios on the table for a potential winter storm a week away. I wish he would post here again.
 
howdy

to be clear. i think this look is in the company of feb 2021, dec 2018 in terms of "big dog potential 8 days out". the players on the field are unimpeachable. however.

i think it's ok to be frightened by suppression. this is a point based more on vibes than meteorology but i think this storm is similar to dec 2018 by virtue of being laterally moving southern stream qpf bomb. my memory was, 8-9 days out, modeling for that storm had a sawed off shotgun spread, some suppressed, some going up the coast, but generally the consensus was in the carolinas.

so it's giving me a bit of pause that the consensus is a suppressed whiff.

on the other hand, i think there's some convective feedback issues right now with long range modeling. see below for latest gfs:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

do not think the main llc will be associated with a MCS racing to bermuda. this is the kind of thing that can mess with moisture transport and amplification in modeling and why i like to see how CAMs handle things before writing a storm off.
 
Rain Cold said:
Jon is smart and used to post here. But you don't need a degree to understand that there are quite a few scenarios on the table for a potential winter storm a week away. I wish he would post here again.
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I get that, I was more alluding to those finding anything they can to say there’s no chance of this amounting to anything 7-8 days out than anything. I’ll keep this stuff in banter going forward
 
accu35 said:
A week away and you think we are out of the game? Operational runs will mess with your head this far out. It wouldn’t take but a couple degrees for this to go pound town for Alabama especially if we get a 992/993 low in the gulf. This has big potential to be a board wide hit.
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Yeah I certainly would not put northern Alabama and Mississippi out of it yet, but I do agree that cold is a bigger question mark than further east. However, you’re right that if there were a more amped and deeper low along the Gulf coast then those areas might be able to take advantage of some strong FGEN forcing that would help with dynamic cooling of the column
 
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