wow
Member
Solid 50/50 low and a robust southern wave.. odds are pretty good this will trend toward a text book snowstorm for the SE.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
The day of
Tarheelwx
Member
I keep hearing folks refer to CAD here. But with a strong low off the coast pulling down cold air, it seems to me this really isn’t a case of CAD. Sure “CAD” areas may be in the best area to get snow, but it really has nothing to do with CAD. There are plenty of times CAD areas get snow that have nothing to do with CAD. What am I missing?
TW
TW
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like a bit of a split with the low locations.
griteater
Member
All model providers show temperature maps and dewpoint maps, but for winter, what we really need are wet-bulb temperature maps. I think College of Dupage has some, but I swear it seems like they were inaccurate when I last viewed them (not sure though)
What’s the wet-bulb math? I guess I could Google it but is there an easier way to calculate on the fly?
packfan98
Moderator
Much more consensus with the lows in the gulf this run. This is taking away most of the members that had the precip stretched across the Tennessee valley. This at least delays some of the initial precip and have to depend on a strengthening gulf low instead of overrunning.
I think it's a little confusing/messy looking because the models have been advertising two surface low-pressure systems initially.Looks like a bit of a split with the low locations.
Maybe it’s just me but I feel like I hate dealing with that typical frontal crap that hinders our cold air from sinking south. Give me a deepening low to pull that cold air in and vaccum that cold air southwardMuch more consensus with the lows in the gulf this run. This is taking away most of the members that had the precip stretched across the Tennessee valley. This at least delays some of the initial precip and have to depend on a strengthening gulf low instead of overrunning.
Always heard take the difference between temp and dewpoint and divide by 3. Then subtract that from temp. So 38 degrees with a dew of 20 would be wet bulb of 32
griteater
Member
Temp of 30 and Dewpoint of 20 is a wet-bulb of 27.....so rough estimate would be 70% between the 2 (i.e. more than half)
Flotown
Member
agree.but still time
You can see from the H5 set up that the strongest cold push is going down the east side of the mountains in a CAD fashion before the storm even arrives. The flow around the storm helps to lock in the CAD and pull more cold air in.
What about Jan 11’
Carolina Sky
Member
The thing is that even if we never actually see a phase or if it’s just a bit later, I still think this has a very good chance to trend further north in the Gulf. Like Webb and others have pointed out, we’re dealing with southern stream energy in a very strong STJ. A great example would be the Christmas 2010 storm. The phase didn’t occurs until later as it fired up the low off the coast on Christmas night, but before that during the day, the southern stream wave that fed into the low trended considerably north in the last 24 hours and set up an overrunning event for northern Alabama, northern GA, Tennessee and western NC/SC.
Triplephase93
Member
Like to see a phase to the west and to see and a slightly more inland track to get more of the board involved.
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Lol I bet