Pattern February 2024

[griteater]

GFS is staying warm as the low treks west to east to Jacksonville

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I hope this run was a blip. Otherwise, we'll be watching yet another perfect track Miller A Rainstorm.

 

[griteater]

That was an atrocious run. One more jump like that and we might be talking about severeWX ?

That’s the eternal struggle in this setup - the cold air and storm are trying to meet head on over the southeast.

 

[jrips27]

If we get anything close to this and it’s too warm… we suck

 

[lexxnchloe]

I hope this run was a blip. Otherwise, we'll be watching yet another perfect track Miller A Rainstorm.

Im not an expert but with the cold going NE to SW and the low coming from the SW its going to be hard to get a winter storm.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Having the system get really strong in Oklahoma/Texas is what kills us. We just need it to move east and then get stronger

The TPV over NE Canada existing stage right early on was the death knell. One run. The ICON flipped the other way, and we're still a week out so hopefully, we can reel this one back in.

 

[jrips27]

The TPV over NE Canada existing stage right early on was the death knell. One run. The ICON flipped the other way, and we're still a week out so hopefully, we can reel this one back in.

LOTS of changes with that GFS run. Much more interested to see how the GEFS looks

 

[LukeBarrette]

Wouldn’t say that watch the wave entering SE Canada starting to retrograde under the block View attachment 143974

I mean you’re not wrong but that’s only snow for me and western NC. I want others to win here

 

[SD]

Soundings looked fine for much of nc and northern sc for sleet or snow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC absolutely nukes the foothills/western Piedmont

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

CMC absolutely nukes the foothills/western Piedmont View attachment 143979View attachment 143980

That 14.8 is directly over mi casa

 

[Tarheel1]

CMC absolutely nukes the foothills/western Piedmont View attachment 143979View attachment 143980

Big Frosty and CAD wedge special

 

[NCSNOW]

Anyone still worried about suppresion lol. 50/50 is the key piece that controls our fate

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is slowly becoming the best option because it moves the cold feed/confluence to our NE just right before the storm, the GFS is losing our confluence as the storm is approaching and we lose any injection. the CMC is the model imo that’s close to something bigger, if the energy on the CMC entering SE can was more wound up or expansive as the storm was moving in, would have been a bigger run for more

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Im not an expert but with the cold going NE to SW and the low coming from the SW its going to be hard to get a winter storm.

It's an unusual setup. An atypical NE flow that depends on an NE system of sufficient strength and orientation and a southern LP to tap that flow simultaneously. Not the usual 1040HP over-locked in over the NE US that brings the usual CAD.

Let's see what the ensembles look like before letting one disappointing deterministic run for next week before cliff diving.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty noticeable trend a weaker trough in the NE on the GEFS the last couple of runs

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Looks like our northern piece of the puzzle dropped in really flat that run? I don’t even know what that was or why

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Deja Vu

 

[jrips27]

Not great early on

 

[griteater]

GFS and CMC both moved more toward a slow moving, wound up bowling ball which would lead to big potential precip wise. This makes sense given the strong El Nino with charged up subtropical jet stream via the recent Pac Jet extension...just need the cold air injection to play ball.