That’s a stout cad sig on the EPS 2mt 
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Pattern February 2024
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coldfront22
Member
Hopefully the ops will start keying in on what the ensembles are showing in future runs.
That 2/13-14 system can get really really interesting in a hurry as models resolve the timing and the vortex or lack of over the NE. Realistically it should be a cold rain with a follow up system 2/16-17 being more interesting. With the euro being close to a last second phase though it has to make your eyebrows raise
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I think this is one we want held back. If it pops out too soon there's going to be a carcass of the SER and it'll be biased north like the gfs or bodily pulled into the meat grinder like the cmc. I would assume that the eps members with snow in the time frame are the slowest
Mahomeless
Member
CAD just isn't a really good setup for snow in the Southeast. It can set the tone for ground temps, but getting those 850/925 temps where they need to be with solely CAD influence is a pretty hard thing to do. You need cold air funneling in from the NW and sliding east.
iGRXY
Member
Ehhhh it depends. Usually the setup for CAD has a heighten field out ahead of the storm which helps drive it north before relocating to the coast. In this instance the heights across the east as depicted are lowered as you have troughs all across the 50/50 region and the southern United States due to El Niño influence
This is the deepest dive yet on the EURO ext. Maybe we really can lock in the -NAO and bring March in like a lion.
Just wait until the pattern starts to retrograde and the big western ridge returnsThis is the deepest dive yet on the EURO ext. Maybe we really can lock in the -NAO and bring March in like a lion.
And, a low amp 8 for the cherry on top:
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That's interesting, the model backed off, now it's back at it again. I believe it did the same thing earlier. Regardless, the polar vortex is going to get smacked around awhile.This is the deepest dive yet on the EURO ext. Maybe we really can lock in the -NAO and bring March in like a lion.
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It's really not impossible that we are tracking snow threats to 3/15 in different parts of the region. It's hard to find the way this pattern gets out of some combo of -nao/-epo/+pna
For us SE of the Apps, the best setups are CAD combined with it being cold everywhere (surface on up). CAD isn't limited to ice / sleet storms. But CAD can help to give us folks SE of the Apps that extra bit of wiggle room to ensure a winter storm vs. a rainy one
Yep. It backed off quite a bit on yesterday's run. Of course, it should be noted that only a few days before the January SSW, it backed off a reversal at the last minute. Of interest, unlike in January, the PV doesn't look like it will rapidly recover this time.
ECMWF | Charts
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rburrel2
Member
Yea, especially important in Feb/March to help negate boundary layer issues from sun angle.
Ideally, I look for a banana high here at the tail end of CAD country.
That has a Feb-Mar 1960 look to it where the Atlantic side is dominant and doing its thing
Some of the Carolina Piedmont and SC upstate best snowstorms have come from CAD
You stole my thunder here lol. I was just about to post the last handful of days in feb into the first week of March might have the biggest of dogs
Wow! That truly is a dead-ringer.
I know 1960 was epic for the Carolinas. How did Ala. and Ga. do that year? Does anyone have that handy?
SASQUATCH
Mobile, AL: Snow Capital of the South
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All I know is that it better have snowed in Lavonia, Ga during that time or there's just no hope for that town.
I feel like the regular Euro Control run is representative of recent trends with the pattern
The Pac Jet extension is trending stronger into the west coast. Because it is at a low latitude, this gives us our stream of southern waves; but it also breaks down the W North America ridging. The little ridge that breaks off there in W Canada does help to deliver cold air south this run. On the Atlantic side, the origin of the Greenland Blocking is moreso coming out of Scandinavia which is more of a traditional location for quality, retrograding blocks...and we have 50/50 lows pinwheeling underneath the blocking ridge. So if the Pacific side is going to be of limited help with cold air delivery, we need the Atlantic side to get blocked up like this Euro C run is showing.
Then moving forward, as long as the pinched off ridge above Alaska doesn't drop down into E Asia, the pattern should retrograde with the Pac Jet backing off in late Feb following high pressure being replaced with low pressure in E Asia.
The Pac Jet extension is trending stronger into the west coast. Because it is at a low latitude, this gives us our stream of southern waves; but it also breaks down the W North America ridging. The little ridge that breaks off there in W Canada does help to deliver cold air south this run. On the Atlantic side, the origin of the Greenland Blocking is moreso coming out of Scandinavia which is more of a traditional location for quality, retrograding blocks...and we have 50/50 lows pinwheeling underneath the blocking ridge. So if the Pacific side is going to be of limited help with cold air delivery, we need the Atlantic side to get blocked up like this Euro C run is showing.
Then moving forward, as long as the pinched off ridge above Alaska doesn't drop down into E Asia, the pattern should retrograde with the Pac Jet backing off in late Feb following high pressure being replaced with low pressure in E Asia.
I don’t have the snowfall map but according to this Atlanta had 4 inches on March 11, 1960. https://www.currentresults.com/Year...e-annual-atlanta-snowfall.php#google_vignette
I don't think it was as epic as NC but I know GA did quite well.
CLT had 25" of snow across 3 events across 10 days in March 1960...RDU was around 15".
Stormlover
Member
NCSNOW
Member
The Valentines Close enough to watch storm at 12z, Had the 12z Icon in the neighborhood. Be interesting to see if we can pull a rabbit out of the hat. And yea 1960 was epic lots of places. Boone had a total of 3 feet from 3 separate storms. 3 straight Wednesdays in a row. Looks like Metwannabe in below pic, must have been visiting high country back then.
For March 1960, CLT had 21.7” it’s still the snowiest month in the city’s history. The total for the winter was 25” and all of that occurred after 2/12… there was a storm that gave the city 3.3” over Valentine’s Day. The first of the March storms was on 3/2 and gave CLT 9.5”… one of many big snowstorms to happen 3/2 which is the reason why 3/2 is on average the snowiest day of the year in CLT
That was my mom’s freshman year at App St. She said that the school never cancelled classes that month. Of course it was much smaller and just a teacher’s college at that point with all students living on campusThe Valentines Close enough to watch storm at 12z, Had the 12z Icon in the neighborhood. Be interesting to see if we can pull a rabbit out of the hat. And yea 1960 was epic lots of places. Boone had a total of 3 feet from 3 separate storms. 3 straight Wednesdays in a row. Looks like Metwannabe in below pic, must have been visiting high country back then.
Prestige Worldwide
Member
Cool article? The lady dies and her kids are orphans- at least when I clicked the great blizzard of 1960
really lovely euro run. no bs no gimmicks just a pleasant storm track with plenty of analogs. feels like one of the storms we tracked in college (mid 2010s). needs to be colder obviously but not an impossible task with some northern stream chicanery
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My G'ma and mom always talked about this year.
It snowed in Tryon NC 3 Weds in a row that year in March if I'm not mistaken.
I'm pretty sure it did at GSP also just to the South of where my Mom & her parents where living at that time.
Flo
Member
This whole page is reminiscing posts. I thought there was a thread for that?
Very old school looking pattern right there. Can’t recall a look like that, being on here anyways. closest is 2010 and the early 2000s but this looks like some pattern from the 1900s.
Downeastnc
Member
A rare chance to get multiple significant winter storms in a fairly short period shaping up...
That Baja wave though 
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