Where did the cold air injection go? It’s been showing for how many runs now and suddenly gone? Do you buy it?
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
griteater
Member
Just think we gotta sit tight and see how things trend. 6-7 days away is an eternity with model watching. We have a shot / all we can say right now
SnowwxAtl
Member
Nope, I don't buy it. I Think it was just a bad run. Will be back 6z GFS.
That’s admittedly a ugly trend 
rburrel2
Member
over half the ensemble members were too suppressed for a storm at 18z, this may not be a bad thing on this run, (except the trend may continue).
Stormsfury
Member
From bundled to a positively tilted trough. The difference is a surface low that was depicted 992-995mb, to a 1005mb being kicked east fast...
Gefs bullseying the upstate/western NC this run
griteater
Member
UKMet was colder with the NE low hanging in there, but not as strong with the southern stream wave. The winning ticket is a strong, slow-moving, bowling ball upper low sliding west to east across the deep south with the NE Low / 50-50 low either hanging in there and sending cold air south or partially phasing some of that NE Low into the southern bowling ball
CMC ens looks really good for NC.. wow 
GEFS 
iGRXY
Member
Would it be a winter storm potential if we didn’t get the inevitable day 7 model screw up to happen? This feels like home right now lol
Skewed by a couple of hits. But those couple of hits are massive. High ceiling on this one for sure
iGRXY
Member
Still a big signal on the GEFS and CMCE. Right now I think this turns to the inevitable I85 north and west cutoff. Now whether that is a cutoff from snow and rain or snow and ice or ice and rain, Idk yet. But I think everyone along and north and west of 85 should be cautiously optimistic. Emphasis should on cautiously
iGRXY
Member
Honestly there’s multiple hits on there and not just from big dogs either.
Although the mean still looks good, the total members with snow south of VA dropped from 9 to 5
Yep just saw that, dang
griteater
Member
Here are the CMC Ens 850mb temperature anomalies on Saturday morning, 1 to 2 days before our storm. While I do think this can work, this just speaks to the pre-storm environment and the challenge we're facing with dragging cold air down from SE Canada just prior to the approach of our storm.
ugh it would really suck to waste a tailor made southern stream ULL hammer like this.
if you want some copium- i thought the delta on the GEFS was rather strange- check out how the entire wave train- not just our features, everything- lurches east at 114 hr.
fair reason to believe this run from the american camp is a dud and see what the 6z and 12z can offer. or maybe it's sniffing something out.
if you want some copium- i thought the delta on the GEFS was rather strange- check out how the entire wave train- not just our features, everything- lurches east at 114 hr.
fair reason to believe this run from the american camp is a dud and see what the 6z and 12z can offer. or maybe it's sniffing something out.
