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Pattern February 2024

GFS is totally different at day 10 compared to the Canadian & Euro. Cold air placement is not in position on the GFS. Trough placement is not where we need it.
 
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If we could get that cold air in sooner at HR 258 on the GFS that would be a nice hit for the Mid-South with that low placement.
 
The GFS might be setting up something behind the initial storm too.
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The CMC was headed for a winter storm - baggy southern stream on top of Mexico, and a really good cold feed from the Atlantic trough, really nice winter storm setup, like the ens hint at 37D4F2A7-9D1F-4ED5-8F20-05F3EEB5E2CA.png
GFS oth dumps the TPV and slows it around the lakes, hence the cutter, need that farther out ahead or peiced together with the Atlantic trough 5B201BA4-4C0E-44B7-BBCB-B81987B53CDD.png
CMC is the exact progression you want as was likely headed for a big time winter storm across the SE, this time period (the first one of interest) holds potential for a SE winter storm imo
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The CMC was headed for a winter storm - baggy southern stream on top of Mexico, and a really good cold feed from the Atlantic trough, really nice winter storm setup, like the ens hint at View attachment 145553
GFS oth dumps the TPV and slows it around the lakes, hence the cutter, need that farther out ahead or peiced together with the Atlantic trough View attachment 145550
CMC is the exact progression you want as was likely headed for a big time winter storm across the SE, this time period (the first one of interest) holds potential for a SE winter storm imo
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Dang thats impressive...GFS/CMC both agree on dropping a legit cold HP into the conus.

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KyloG said:
Dang thats impressive...GFS/CMC both agree on dropping a legit cold HP into the conus.

View attachment 145556
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Yeah, I’d say what could really go wrong is doing what we did in January, or basically the OP GFS, dumping the TPV in a inadequate location. we need to keep that area around the lakes with some sort of ridge trailing the big Atlantic trough, this setup with the southern stream has boom potential, it’s not high amped but it’s a huge subtropical trough under a strong subtropical jet stream. It’s gonna be juiced. The signal on the ensembles is there for a juiced up system, we just need to time the 50/50 low right and not have any sort of energy dumping around the lakes/northern plains otherwise it ruins the cold feed and high pressure. Lots of time though. All we can hope is ensembles continue to show what they show and OP runs start showing something
 
This look from last nights EPS is close to the Miller B winter storm composite for NC, big 50/50 low, the area around the lakes is clean from any big TPV lobe with some ridging near the lakes which encourages descent —> high pressure , and a low amplitude southern stream wave/baggy trough progressing east, want to see this look show up more and more, and keep clean of anything around the lakes 30BD1945-4B63-48B1-8065-4F601A804F94.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This look from last nights EPS is close to the Miller B winter storm composite for NC, big 50/50 low, the area around the lakes is clean from any big TPV lobe with some ridging near the lakes which encourages descent —> high pressure , and a low amplitude southern stream wave/baggy trough progressing east, want to see this look show up more and more, and keep clean of anything around the lakes View attachment 145558
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cold trough lobe'ing a little too far east into N. Atlantic as opposed to more nw/se across conus?
 
CaryWx said:
cold trough lobe'ing a little too far east into N. Atlantic as opposed to more nw/se across conus?
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No, that look is fine, if that was over the east we’d be completely dry and suppressed. 50/50 low is typical in winter storms of the past for the Carolina’s and mid Atlantic. It’s actually better to me being around that area, because it encourages high pressure trailing
 
I know nobody is going to want to hear this...pattern isn't great day 12+ on the GEPS. The pacific isn't cooperating here.

Yes it can change and I'm sure it's wrong and it's day 10+ which isn't great skill.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-mslp_anom-8387200.png
 
JLL1973 said:
going to get very interesting around here during that time period
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Yea...we are looking good to score again if we can get that HP coming down from the plains....our chances continue to increase with the subtle changes in the globals.
 
Like Fro said earlier, there maybe more than one wave coming through the STJ that we could possibly score from, the tricky part is timing one of the waves with the HP's coming through the NS. Presidents day week has some potential IMO.

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Ugh. don't like this change on the Euro for Feb 22
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Looking like it wants to significantly weaken the block in Greenland, not good. If it shows this for a couple of runs more, it will change how good/less good the pattern becomes. The trough in the Pac moves closer to the East and so does the one in the Atl, hopefully this is just a blip and not a trend
 
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