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Pattern February 2024

ForsythSnow said:
It's a massive shift which could very much stick. Really upstream if one slight issue happens days in advance and it locks in, then we're stuck and this is DOA. Better chances at "It'll make its own cold air" if something doesn't fall back into place in today's runs. We lost everything but the ICON in cold press which isn't good news at all for that drastic of a change on the main models.
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Once we get inside 7 days is when everything goes from good to bad. Why it's so frustrating looking at the models past 7 days.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Looks like a very high resolution model
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FWIW- JB has posted on it quite a few times in his blob, I think it's AI stuff, but he's tested it a few times and seems so far that it's no better than what we already have "model" wise says JB... Not to say it can't be right at any giving time though!
 
I have no clue if this will happen but this looks like every southeastern winter storm I’ve ever seen us track outside of MAYBE 1 or 2 over the last 15 years at least. You have a storm signal, lose it around day 6-9, pick it back up between day 4-6. No clue if it comes back but this is not even remotely out of the norm. Newbies on here are going to have to understand that rarely and I rarely do we get a day 10+ potential that holds together every run until go time. There’s always been a couple day stretch where the wheels look like they completely fall off just for it to come right back. Again, no idea if that happens here but you don’t throw this away on day 6 or 7. If we are still seeing this by Friday, then yeah it’s probably done.
 
Scraping the bottom of the barrel to keep hope alive.
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Cold and suppression is always preferable to to me over hoping we can find a cold air feed in the nick of time. Thankfully, we still have time to change that. In reality, it's just one bad (pretty bad, I'll grant you) trend. But we have time to fix it.
 
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