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Pattern February 2024

Rain Cold said:
Cold and suppression is always preferable to to me over hoping we can find a cold air feed in the nick of time. Thankfully, we still have time to change that. In reality, it's just one bad (pretty bad, I'll grant you) trend. But we have time to fix it.
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Crazy how we slowly trended colder and colder run after run for several days, and now everything suddenly reverses course much more quickly. Pretty depressing this morning given I’ll be in the mountains in this timeframe and it’s starting to even look like a mostly rain event there on the latest op runs.

Given the current depiction, I think one solution folks further east can possibly root for is for this thing to bomb out and slow down once it gets into the Atlantic, which would drag down the 850s on the backside. Could even work further west (especially in the Carolinas), but it’s a matter of how quickly the system is moving. 0z Euro gets close, and both the Canadian and GFS seem to be slowing the system down considerably now that the cold press out in front has lessened. Still a very long way to go with this one, and trends one way or another are far from over.
 
Stevo24 said:
I bet that cold feed source will never come back. Once it’s gone it’s gone.
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This isn’t exactly true. When we’re talking about CAD, models will often go back and forth on the cold air feed especially when there’s not a real prevalent SER or WAR… January 2022 was a really good example of that… models went back and forth on how strong and deep the CAD would be and never really got a hold on it until about 3 days out. I’ve always thought that this is part of the reason globals will like to plow a low pressure right into the heart of a wedge when just physics don’t allow that to happen
 
Chazwin said:
This isn’t exactly true. When we’re talking about CAD, models will often go back and forth on the cold air feed especially when there’s not a real prevalent SER or WAR… January 2022 was a really good example of that… models went back and forth on how strong and deep the CAD would be and never really got a hold on it until about 3 days out. I’ve always thought that this is part of the reason globals will like to plow a low pressure right into the heart of a wedge when just physics don’t allow that to happen
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Yeah but did the models completely take it away in 2022?
 
I haven't really jumped into the Feb 5/6 potential because of the variability of the models. And (I guess) I feel our luck is not with us right now. But saying that, this really is not over. Even looking at the current 6z GFS, you would think there would be much more precip from that low off the coast. Also there still is a northerly feed (CAD) with many locations in the 30s with dew points in the lower/mid 20s. RDU for example is ~34/24 at the below depiction.

~day 8:

1706537486836.png

Also the CAD could easily come back stronger in the upcoming days. Still many changes coming. Hopefully for the good.
 
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Stevo24 said:
Euro did the same
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Yep, but same can be said for it as well. Could be a trend that sets in next few cycles, but right now its expected. This is a fickle shot at a big dog and you gonna go through this. But I get everyones concern. I've had it as well for a few days, even when we where getting good trends. I always worry about the cold 1st. Lets hop we can not get the Northeast confluence screwed up anymore time wise /placement etc. That wave will be there no doubt,
 
imo feature to watch this suite is how tall the ridge in western canada getsgfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh60_trend.gif

my take is that as this ridge losing its longitudinal fortitude is what has sped up the wave train and giving the downstream shortwave less of a leash to dig and become the 50 50 low we need

it can improve, there's also room for us to slip further in the pits of long range model hell ?. the copium here is that this is indeed a poorly sampled area and could be subject to more model shifts

funny how things turn. sometimes you are 1st half detroit lions and sometimes you are second half detroit lions.
 
NCSNOW said:
Yep, but same can be said for it as well. Could be a trend that sets in next few cycles, but right now its expected. This is a fickle shot at a big dog and you gonna go through this. But I get everyones concern. I've had it as well for a few days, even when we where getting good trends. I always worry about the cold 1st. Lets hop we can not get the Northeast confluence screwed up anymore time wise /placement etc. That wave will be there no doubt,
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What concerns me the most is that the confluence we’re needing is set up in the short to medium range (Thursday/ Friday), which the models should be getting a better handle on at this point and moving forward. I’m afraid we need to be rooting for other things to trend in our favor but who knows. Hopefully the bad trends stop at 12z.
 
Mitch West said:
This is just bonus, mid to late February is when we get the big one.
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With regard to Feb 4/5 system seems that less cold press it's rains further north except maybe for the nc mts. More cold suppression pushes precipitation below 1-20 .looks like a kobioshi maru no win scenario for most. Imo
 
Jan88 said:
With regard to Feb 4/5 system seems that less cold press it's rains further north except maybe for the nc mts. More cold suppression pushes precipitation below 1-20 .looks like a kobioshi maru no win scenario for most. Imo
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Oh I agree, I meant bonus as a bonus opportunity. Should of added that.
 
I won’t start freaking out until Wednesday or Thursday if the trends don’t start looking favorable by then.

I’ve lurked on here for years, really only
post in storm observation threads, and have learned a lot over the last decade, and one thing that always gets said is not to follow each model run like it’s gospel.

If they are trending worse around midweek, then I will start to get concerned for snow lovers, until then, it just is not advisable to read any model output this far out as gospel.
 
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