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Pattern February 2024

This is why I feel we need to have the PV consolidate further to the east. With it stretched and split into several pieces, the upper level convergence gets interrupted. That's another reason I favor later -- from roughly the 20th ish -- onward as that's when the EPS and CMCE have a better congealing of the PV further east.
I still like this period. If we can pull this look forward many will be salivating soon I bet.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-8171200.png


ecmwf-deterministic-namer-mslp_anom-8171200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-dew2m_c-8171200.png
 
Pattern and analogs from NOAA CPC's 8-14 Day Outlook for Feb 15-21, centered on Feb 18 (Note: you may want to post stuff related to specific dates in the Reminiscing Thread - I feel the images here are applicable, but I don't want to muddy the thread with analog date postings)

Feb 7 CPC 1.gif
Feb 7 CPC 2.gif
 
A few things to keep in mind over the coming days. This isn't the same as the last few nina Febs where the SER is predisposed to appear. If we get the pv split high latitude blocking will be the general flavor. The pattern should retrograde as the jet retracts severely and renewed rockies/WC ridging should take shape later in the month. We may see a temporary warm period as the trough out west finally releases inland if the nao isn't strong enough to mitigate a temporary enhancement to the STJ and tendency for it to rise north, if we follow a p7-3 mjo progression this cold, stormy, potential snow pattern can easily push into March well south.
 
Would be nice to get a storm on the board for some folks in the early part of this better pattern.

Moving ahead after that storm potential around next weekend, the GEPS out to day 10 here has the best representation for where I think we are headed, though it may be a little quick. Each Pacific Jet extension this winter has been quite strong (Strong El Nino at work), and this next one arriving in California / Baja late next week is no exception. But the jet should back off in the Feb 22-24 timeframe and calm down with the heavy low anomalies pounding into the west coast. As it backs off, I think we are going to see a legit retrograding block that runs SW toward Hudson Bay, with the N Atlantic getting blocked up (Edit: and I think the blocking will be slow to rot away)....2 reasons for this: 1) we've moved more toward a traditional blocking origin location (Scandinavia), and 2) trends with the stratosphere have continued to improve where we are now seeing not only good chances for an official SSW, but also, a prolonged period where the SPV doesn't recover in strength.

That type of evolution would set the stage for a big KU, east coast nor'easter type storm, with us in the south / southeast also having a shot on either side (all of this in the late Feb / early Mar timeframe). A nice sequence for us in the SE associated with Atlantic Blocking has occurred in the past where there has been a nor'easter > suppressed storm track behind the nor'easter > SE winter storm. Off the top of my head, I know Feb 12, 2010 and Feb 15, 1969 were both like that

xFWgjef.gif
 
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Would be nice to get a storm on the board for some folks in the early part of this better pattern.

Moving ahead after that storm potential around next weekend, the GEPS out to day 10 here has the best representation for where I think we are headed, though it may be a little quick. Each Pacific Jet extension this winter has been quite strong (Strong El Nino at work), and this next one arriving in California / Baja late next week is no exception. But the jet should back off in the Feb 22-24 timeframe and calm down with the heavy low anomalies pounding into the west coast. As it backs off, I think we are going to see a legit retrograding block that runs SW toward Hudson Bay, with the N Atlantic getting blocked up....2 reasons for this: 1) we've moved more toward a traditional blocking origin location (Scandinavia), and 2) trends with the stratosphere have continued to improve where we are now seeing not only good chances for an official SSW, but also, a prolonged period where the SPV doesn't recover in strength.

That type of evolution would set the stage for a big KU, east coast nor'easter type storm, with us in the south / southeast also having a shot on either side (all of this in the late Feb / early Mar timeframe). A nice sequence for us in the SE associated with Atlantic Blocking has occurred in the past where there has been a nor'easter > suppressed storm track behind the nor'easter > SE winter storm. Off the top of my head, I know Feb 12, 2010 and Feb 15, 1969 were both like that

xFWgjef.gif
post this on twitter my guy. This is a fantastic post. Winter isn't going anywhere.
 
GFS and its ensembles are on an island right now


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I wouldn’t say the GEFS is on an island, but I just can’t understand why anyone can put any value in the Op GFS past 5 days out. It literally went from a southern GA/SC winter storm to a cutter in one run
 
I wouldn’t say the GEFS is on an island, but I just can’t understand why anyone can put any value in the Op GFS past 5 days out. It literally went from a southern GA/SC winter storm to a cutter in one run
Yep, we should have learned by now that the GFS OP sucks and changes with every run. Could it be right? Sure, but it is a very rare occurrence.
 
Yep, we should have learned by now that the GFS OP sucks and changes with every run. Could it be right? Sure, but it is a very rare occurrence.
GFS and Euro are virtually identical out to 180 at h5 - with probably the most significant difference being with the vortex in the NE. Pretty remarkable if you ask me.
gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7955200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7955200.png
 
I wouldn’t say the GEFS is on an island, but I just can’t understand why anyone can put any value in the Op GFS past 5 days out. It literally went from a southern GA/SC winter storm to a cutter in one run

The day 10-12 18z GFS op run is certainly within the envelope of any of the ensemble means.

IMG_0626.pngIMG_0625.png
 
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