Pattern February 2024

[1300m]

The only way we score hasn't changed IMO - an injection of northern stream energy has to move into the system at the right time. The Spire model does this, as does some members of the 06z GEFS (2, 6, 8, 9, 17, 19, 21, 22) and it's no surprise all of these are more wintry solutions. My emotional needle on this event has not budged - good potential and a strong setup and the details are far from being resolved.

 

[Mitch West]

So these are all...

*checks notes*

Bad?

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I think it's more so the direction we are heading at this moment. But let's hope that the direction either stops or heads back in the right direction.

 

[iGRXY]

ICON looks similar to 0Z last night

 

[BullCityWx]

I think it's more so the direction we are heading at this moment. But let's hope that the direction either stops or heads back in the right direction.

What direction, though? Those are all increases except the euro, which was close to the same.

 

[Jan88]

I think it's more so the direction we are heading at this moment. But let's hope that the direction either stops or heads back in the right direction.

Cold gives a better chance

 

[NoSnowATL]

Cold gives a better chance

Yep, you always want the cold in place 1st, if not you need to much to work just right.

 

[Chandler]

Not a good start with 12z models, icon looks like it’s caving

 

[Mitch West]

What direction, though? Those are all increases except the euro, which was close to the same.

The cold air supply direction.

 

[Jan88]

Yep, you always want the cold in place 1st, if not you need to much to work just right.

It's hard to imagine that this heads to the apps given the blocking an the 50/50 where it is .cold air east of the mountains usually over performs

 

[CltNative90]

From GSPs morning discussion:
The synoptic pattern will evolve into an Omega Block over the
weekend. A stout upper low will break out of this pattern and
drift from the Four Corners into the Deep South by Sunday...with
wildly increasing uncertainty on how this will play out.
The deterministic runs at least all feature the upper low now,
and have begun to align on the arrival of some low-level moisture
in the southern zones Sunday evening. But, the details remain
pretty murky...with a wide distribution of temperatures that would
certainly support some mountain snow, but waffle between a more
cool-sector wintry-precip solution for the I-40 corridor and a
more warm-sector rain-and-thunder solution for the Upstate.

 

[Chandler]

Icon was north, but has snow

 

[1300m]

The only way we score hasn't changed IMO - an injection of northern stream energy has to move into the system at the right time. The Spire model does this, as does some members of the 06z GEFS (2, 6, 8, 9, 17, 19, 21, 22) and it's no surprise all of these are more wintry solutions. My emotional needle on this event has not budged - good potential and a strong setup and the details are far from being resolved.

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Beating a dead horse here, but 12z ICON also joins the club of northern stream injection = more wintry solution. I really hope this is the direction we head, because if it is, I think a stronger vort max between the upper ridge and strong vortex could emerge in future cycles and interact with the southern wave, which would be the big dog option.

 

[coldfront22]

Where is the ICON getting its cold air source from?

 

[iGRXY]

Beating a dead horse here, but 12z ICON also joins the club of northern stream injection = more wintry solution.

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It had less ridging over Canada but still got a nice injection of cold air.

 

[rburrel2]

The 12z Icon shows our best path to victory considering a phase that affects anyone seems very unlikely at this point. Even though the icon did trend slower and weaker initially with the northern trough, it still winds it up tight, but a little later and further East... further East isn't horrible for us b/c it helps with CAD feed and lets the bowling ball low have enough room to dump out on us.

It's a fine line, but what we want is a strong cold push initially,(trended the wrong way overnight), but we also need a further east and even southeast vortex when it does pinch off to avoid suppression and allow better CAD,(maybe trending better per the icon?).

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[iGRXY]

Where is the ICON getting its cold air source from?

Arctic region. ULL dropping down and getting pinched off to phase with troughing already over the northern atlantic. That's the only way this will work on any of these models.

 

[rburrel2]

Also just my two cents... but the icon seems to be keying in on adiabatic cooling with the strong Southeast flow at 850-900mb against the mountains. which is one reason why the escarpment and foothills do so well in that run.

In my experience, this can be real and trend better when we get in to hi-res model range.

 

[iGRXY]

The 12z Icon shows our best path to victory considering a phase that affects anyone seems very unlikely at this point. Even though the icon did trend slower and weaker initially with the northern trough, it still winds it up tight, but a little later and further East... further East isn't horrible for us b/c it helps with CAD feed and lets the bowling ball low have enough room to dump out on us.

It's a fine line, but what we want is a strong cold push initially,(trended the wrong way overnight), but we also need a further east and even southeast vortex when it does pinch off to avoid suppression and allow better CAD,(maybe trending better per the icon?).

Honestly I thought it was better because you're avoiding the suppression issues in this case. I would also expect the ICON to have more precip than it showed. It had a nice bowling ball at 500mb and a 997 surface low right off of the carolina coast. but only dropped between 0.5-0.75" of liquid precip.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Starting to notice a WNC sweet spot on modeling in general