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Yall gone head and trust that OP run
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Ok this one isn’t like a model differing from its ensemble on one individual storm. This is a major overhauling difference in the overall pattern, but we have some folks that are just going to take it as gospel
I initially posted it. Of course, I don't take it as gospel, nor any 7+ day run of any model for that matter.
But, seeing a deterministic model go so far off the rails beginning on day 5 shouldn't be completely ignored. Strangely, the 18Z GFS run was eerily similar to yesterday's 18Z run.
If we can admire a great look on a long-range deterministic run, we can handle seeing a train wreck too.
Normally I would say don’t completely discount an OP run, but….
I guess for me, I just don’t spend much time looking at an op run no matter what solution it shows, good or bad, especially when it goes back and forth. Now if you start to see 3 or 4 runs in a row, showing the same or something similar, then yeah I’ll pay it a little bit of attention, but there’s gotta be some consistency first
Edit: Oh and I read enough of your posts to know you weren’t taking it as gospel. Your input is very useful. I was speaking more of a few posts on the support thread
Gefs evolution. Can see the 17-20th chance, then the evolution closer to a El Niño February phase 8 MJO look, GOAK low retrograding and heights recovering out the in NW, with the -NAO retrograding to Baffin Bay and the Atlantic getting clogged up. The constant southern stream barrage encourages cyclonic wavebreaking which keeps the -NAO going healthy. the 17-20th time of interest is just the tip of the iceberg
Definitely the best GEFS mean for this period for the Deep South.
The evolution of the Aleutian low was where the operational completely went off the rails. Which is a feature we’re going to need. GEFS showing it so not sweating it
ATLwxfan
Member
The GEFS is marginally cold at best. No true arctic air available and you couple that with the bread basket spending two weeks in the furnace, chilly rain outside of CAD regions/mountains.
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So I like where the 0z ICON ended. The storm that cuts up west of the Apps for Valentines moves off and establishes a 50/50 low while the ridge builds in the west. A 1043 HP drops into Montana while a 1042HP is moving down behind it.
NCSNOW
Member
Yea looked like ICOn was fixing to do something good potentially
Brent
Member
If only temps weren't so warm... 
Which one doesn’t belong
Canadian with a nice arctic dump.
?
Bro 
? 
Mercy
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Definitely worried about suppression for everybody if something like this verified. Good thing we have a lot of time for this to change. Need the suppression to relax a little bit so that a system can build.
what..it’s hour 200
NCSNOW
Member
12z euro icon gem , say gfs is out to lunch. Need to check jma, korean
? 
GFS just has different plans with that low out in the pacific. Wants to crash it into the west coast which totally wrecks the pattern. It’s wrong I think. Maybe..
It phases the initial dump into the NW US into the pac trough, totally wrecks the pattern
So much to like on this Canadian run:
1) Parade of low latitude southern stream waves coming into Cali / Baja (we could actually use a touch more spacing between them so that they don't lead to wave dampening, but it's what you get sometimes with a Strong El Nino)
2) Beautiful ridge breaking anti-cyclonically there in NW Canada / AK (which I doubted would happen in that write-up last night) - with multiple shortwaves digging into and past the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low which is getting trapped underneath the developing Greenland Block
3) Potential for wave phasing between northern and southern stream
4) Cold surface high pressures (multiple) dropping down into the CONUS
5) Suppressed storm track across the south
Just put this on loop and let it repeat like a computer program, and we'd be looking to buy snow blowers on Amazon
1) Parade of low latitude southern stream waves coming into Cali / Baja (we could actually use a touch more spacing between them so that they don't lead to wave dampening, but it's what you get sometimes with a Strong El Nino)
2) Beautiful ridge breaking anti-cyclonically there in NW Canada / AK (which I doubted would happen in that write-up last night) - with multiple shortwaves digging into and past the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low which is getting trapped underneath the developing Greenland Block
3) Potential for wave phasing between northern and southern stream
4) Cold surface high pressures (multiple) dropping down into the CONUS
5) Suppressed storm track across the south
Just put this on loop and let it repeat like a computer program, and we'd be looking to buy snow blowers on Amazon
Definitely some much warmer members in the 0z GEFS run.
Edit: pretty clear what is happening. Northern stream not as deep, so some of the members are picking up big phasers. Some in the GOM and some in the Midwest/SE. Unfortunately the OP did get some support from some of its members this run.
Edit: pretty clear what is happening. Northern stream not as deep, so some of the members are picking up big phasers. Some in the GOM and some in the Midwest/SE. Unfortunately the OP did get some support from some of its members this run.
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Euro nods to the GFS with the lack of cold push during our timeframe of interest. Sucks if we get to where we only have the Canadian, which it feels like we already have. Man we aren’t good at Winter.
06z GFS coming in better but got work to do.
The EURO still had the same general pattern as the CMC though so I wouldn’t say it was a nod to the GFS. It more had some timing differences from the CMC which is to be expected at 240
hours. I didn’t see anything on the EURO or EPS that would make me give the op GFS anymore validity than at 18z
Still a little bit of work to do but definitely quite a bit better looking. I would expect the GEFS to follow suit.
Edit: The GEFS is pretty much a blend of the EURO/CMC. So yes back improved from it 0z run.
Still like this time period nothing has changed to me 
Looks like a pattern that’s favorable for cold air damming to me, exiting SE can vortex/50/50 low and trailing + heights around the lakes encourages HP up top. Can already see a wedge signal via the bending of 850mb temps east of the apps, which is impressive for a day 10-11 smoothed out mean. It may or may not go away, but it’s a favorable pattern that could pop something up. 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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2017-2023 Supporter
You say that it brings VA into the game which is cool but cold air is an issue with this system. Would be a rain to sloppy snow system if things trended slightly better for us.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
CAD was a big theme on 6z GEFS
NCSNOW
Member
Sloppy snow accumulates better than Mega Frost lol. Take it while you can .