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Pattern February 2024

Ok this one isn’t like a model differing from its ensemble on one individual storm. This is a major overhauling difference in the overall pattern, but we have some folks that are just going to take it as gospel
I initially posted it. Of course, I don't take it as gospel, nor any 7+ day run of any model for that matter.

But, seeing a deterministic model go so far off the rails beginning on day 5 shouldn't be completely ignored. Strangely, the 18Z GFS run was eerily similar to yesterday's 18Z run.

If we can admire a great look on a long-range deterministic run, we can handle seeing a train wreck too.
 
I initially posted it. Of course, I don't take it as gospel, nor any 7+ day run of any model for that matter.

But, seeing a deterministic model go so far off the rails beginning on day 5 shouldn't be completely ignored. Strangely, the 18Z GFS run was eerily similar to yesterday's 18Z run.

If we can admire a great look on a long-range deterministic run, we can handle seeing a train wreck too.
I guess for me, I just don’t spend much time looking at an op run no matter what solution it shows, good or bad, especially when it goes back and forth. Now if you start to see 3 or 4 runs in a row, showing the same or something similar, then yeah I’ll pay it a little bit of attention, but there’s gotta be some consistency first

Edit: Oh and I read enough of your posts to know you weren’t taking it as gospel. Your input is very useful. I was speaking more of a few posts on the support thread
 
Gefs evolution. Can see the 17-20th chance, then the evolution closer to a El Niño February phase 8 MJO look, GOAK low retrograding and heights recovering out the in NW, with the -NAO retrograding to Baffin Bay and the Atlantic getting clogged up. The constant southern stream barrage encourages cyclonic wavebreaking which keeps the -NAO going healthy. the 17-20th time of interest is just the tip of the iceberg632FBF1B-4E18-431B-AD8A-7125659B71B2.gif
 
Gefs evolution. Can see the 17-20th chance, then the evolution closer to a El Niño February phase 8 MJO look, GOAK low retrograding and heights recovering out the in NW, with the -NAO retrograding to Baffin Bay and the Atlantic getting clogged up. The constant southern stream barrage encourages cyclonic wavebreaking which keeps the -NAO going healthy. the 17-20th time of interest is just the tip of the icebergView attachment 145640
The evolution of the Aleutian low was where the operational completely went off the rails. Which is a feature we’re going to need. GEFS showing it so not sweating it
 
Yea looked like ICOn was fixing to do something good potentially
So I like where the 0z ICON ended. The storm that cuts up west of the Apps for Valentines moves off and establishes a 50/50 low while the ridge builds in the west. A 1043 HP drops into Montana while a 1042HP is moving down behind it.
 
So I like where the 0z ICON ended. The storm that cuts up west of the Apps for Valentines moves off and establishes a 50/50 low while the ridge builds in the west. A 1043 HP drops into Montana while a 1042HP is moving down behind it.
Yep. The ICON looks delicious. Oh, and nothing like the 18Z GFS, lol.
icon_z500_vort_us_58.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_31.png
 
So much to like on this Canadian run:

1) Parade of low latitude southern stream waves coming into Cali / Baja (we could actually use a touch more spacing between them so that they don't lead to wave dampening, but it's what you get sometimes with a Strong El Nino)
2) Beautiful ridge breaking anti-cyclonically there in NW Canada / AK (which I doubted would happen in that write-up last night) - with multiple shortwaves digging into and past the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low which is getting trapped underneath the developing Greenland Block
3) Potential for wave phasing between northern and southern stream
4) Cold surface high pressures (multiple) dropping down into the CONUS
5) Suppressed storm track across the south

Just put this on loop and let it repeat like a computer program, and we'd be looking to buy snow blowers on Amazon

CmYV166.gif
 
Definitely some much warmer members in the 0z GEFS run.

Edit: pretty clear what is happening. Northern stream not as deep, so some of the members are picking up big phasers. Some in the GOM and some in the Midwest/SE. Unfortunately the OP did get some support from some of its members this run.
 
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Euro nods to the GFS with the lack of cold push during our timeframe of interest. Sucks if we get to where we only have the Canadian, which it feels like we already have. Man we aren’t good at Winter.
The EURO still had the same general pattern as the CMC though so I wouldn’t say it was a nod to the GFS. It more had some timing differences from the CMC which is to be expected at 240
hours. I didn’t see anything on the EURO or EPS that would make me give the op GFS anymore validity than at 18z
 
Looks like a pattern that’s favorable for cold air damming to me, exiting SE can vortex/50/50 low and trailing + heights around the lakes encourages HP up top. Can already see a wedge signal via the bending of 850mb temps east of the apps, which is impressive for a day 10-11 smoothed out mean. It may or may not go away, but it’s a favorable pattern that could pop something up. F0C45D51-04B6-405B-A94F-4DBEE98195CA.png4EAE97F6-3499-4150-96A3-F93CE7FB478A.pngEA1ED0C2-E76E-49F1-BAE8-E77B30375571.png9D491C36-4D28-46C0-AEC3-F4CB753B4DC9.png
 
This day 5 deal is trending south. Brings VA into the game.

View attachment 145689
You say that it brings VA into the game which is cool but cold air is an issue with this system. Would be a rain to sloppy snow system if things trended slightly better for us.
 
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