Pattern February 2024

[Chandler]

Sheeesh, the precip is there at least, wow

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The trend continues. @Kitty Bump thoughts?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This GFS run is colder in the low levels there’s no doubt about that

 

[iGRXY]

GFS would be trending to an ice storm vs a snow storm. I don’t trust it handling CAD in general. It was sending LP way north before transferring to the coast which is going to kill your temps.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gfs after last nights disaster is trending better with LL temps

 

[rburrel2]

Better wedging on the GFS, like the icon.

Here's the Ukmet... looks good, I guess? haha

 

[rburrel2]

If we get this map and wind up with all rain, I quit weather.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is an absolute monster ULL and a huge QPF bomb but just not cold enough

 

[iGRXY]

 

[KyloG]

At the very least we probably will be able to open a thread in a few days for the flooding risk...geez

 

[iGRXY]

CMC is an absolute monster ULL and a huge QPF bomb but just not cold enough

How tf is this not a paste bomb over the western Carolinas.

 

[CaryWx]

Can somebody post an 850 map? Thanks

 

[SD]

It's interesting what we are doing here with the sfc high by shifting the pattern slightly E

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

How tf is this not a paste bomb over the western Carolinas.

I think it will end up being just that. That would be an early lean here

 

[rburrel2]

Honestly the biggest trend right now is cranking up our bowling ball... Starting to get far enough north and deep enough to possibly generate enough cold air on it's own in the mid-levels.

 

[SD]

Kind of feels like we are going to run face first into an ice storm here tbh.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ll just post this without context to get the good mojo flowing in here. Cant hurt I don’t think

Sugar/beech staring down the barrel of another monster. Might have to push my dates up

 

[griteater]

GFS would be trending to an ice storm vs a snow storm. I don’t trust it handling CAD in general. It was sending LP way north before transferring to the coast which is going to kill your temps.

This is actually a killer setup for a big snowstorm if we just had a little more cold air to our north.....but the way the 500mb low slides west to east to our south is just perfect as that keeps the 700mb and 850mb lows to our south as well, and we end up with this strong cold conveyor belt on the north side of the system - kind of rare for our area, but it happens sometimes when you get that type of 500mb low path and strength. It's the kind of setup where the cold air being drawn in on the north side of the system will want to remove any warm nosing (but the prerequisite is having more cold air on the north side)

 

[iGRXY]

Kind of feels like we are going to run face first into an ice storm here tbh.

That's honestly what I was thinking from looking at the GFS and CMC. You're probably going to lose the ML temps due too the further east 50/50 but the bowling ball coming out of the west is stronger and deeper. Surface temps probably would work out but we lose the midlevels