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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
griteater
Member
The closer together the southern wave and 50/50 low are the better the cold air feed will be. We can't have the 50/50 sliding out quickly as that is our source for cold air. With some larger changes, I suppose we get drop some of that 50/50 low down into the southern wave, but that seems like a longer shot at the moment.
GEFS ens (30 members) starting to get a cluster around WNC/the upstate, something that analogs favor 
G,day Mate! ACCESS-G joining the party. Since we're posting models that are showing snow, here we go. Multiply times 10 to get a 10:1 ratio of snow accumulation.
NCSNOW
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- Dec 2, 2016
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NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,830
- Reaction score
- 19,695
Im just zapping through, playing catch up at lunch. But I swear the canadian is like 12-18 hours slower with wave than other modeling. I stand to be corrected, but might explain why its a shade warmer. less on cold feed. I could be off. Anyway thanks for pbp
griteater
Member
UKMet keeps the precip suppressed to the south with a weaker southern wave, so it's a balancing act. Need the stronger damming high with stronger bowling ball wave tracking to our southLike the 12z ukmet , right
rburrel2
Member
The 12z ICON seems to have a late phase that really helps suck in colder air from the northern cut off.
That's actually what the 00z Euro showed as well it was just really weak/warm with the northern cut off and also weak with the southern cutoff... which resulted in no precip for our area, and slightly warmer temps,(but still probably cold enough for snow if the southern low was stronger).
A lot of these other foreign models are also showing the late phase.
If the 12z Euro can stick with that same idea of a late phase, but trend a little stronger/further north with the southern low(which has been the clear trend at 12z)... it could be a really good run for us.
That's actually what the 00z Euro showed as well it was just really weak/warm with the northern cut off and also weak with the southern cutoff... which resulted in no precip for our area, and slightly warmer temps,(but still probably cold enough for snow if the southern low was stronger).
A lot of these other foreign models are also showing the late phase.
If the 12z Euro can stick with that same idea of a late phase, but trend a little stronger/further north with the southern low(which has been the clear trend at 12z)... it could be a really good run for us.
griteater
Member
End of the CMC Ens
It's probably been addressed but the gfs soundings aren't far off from a big mashed potato storm around here. Being about 1-3 degrees away at this lead is well within model error 
iGRXY
Member
severestorm
Member
GEFS 90th percentile accums
Tsappfrog20
Member
Euro looks like it will be amped even more compared to 0z. Warmer so far as well. TPV further off the NE coast is killing the cold feed early on
severestorm
Member
Cold air source doing the boot scootin boogie
By shifting the whole construct east and putting the main ridge axis over the lakes you start running the potential to lock into more of a classic CAD scenario. That said a 1025 high that is likely a sign of a polar pacific airmass and not really one that's going to drive single digit dews deep into the region