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Pattern February 2024

FallsLake said:
At hour 210, it is plenty cold for much of us. But, we'd have to worry about the storm being pushed to far south/east. **BUT--great for 8 days out.
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We say it so many times but this just shows how everything has to be perfect to snow in the south.
 
Interestingly, it seems like the CMC has been the most consistent. No one is more surprised by this than me, but I checked the h5 skill scores recently and the CMC was actually second behind the Euro with the GFS and UKMET having some terrible verification scores at times.

IMO the CMC H5 solution that the 12z GFS is close to has great potential and this is what I personally am rooting for. We need to get a strong cold push and hope that we can have a little bit of the tail end of the northern stream inject into the southern wave and it will pull the system north into the cold ala yesterday's 12z GFS (or even colder depending on the timing).

gem_z500a_namer_fh162_trend.gif
 
The trend has been for that low in the pacific to consolidate well off the coast, I would think that would be a common tendency for big bank to take little bank. With that being said you’d think the Atlantic side would also do the same and consolidate off the coast a little faster allowing that northern piece “fly in the ointment” to trend easterly into the main lobe allowing more high pressure to funnel in and create a more textbook overrunning type look. Just my two pennies.
 
LukeBarrette said:
We say it so many times but this just shows how everything has to be perfect to snow in the south.
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It's like synchronized swimming getting all these pieces to line up. We've got no business trying to follow these things from 10 days out, but we're just deranged snow hounds afflicted with a disease and can't help it. I will say this...because we have to look ahead so far into the future to see opportunities, many of the posters on here develop a feel over time with respect to which setups at range have real potential and are worth spending time investigating and which ones aren't.
 
griteater said:
It's like synchronized swimming getting all these pieces to line up. We've got no business trying to follow these things from 10 days out, but we're just deranged snow hounds afflicted with a disease and can't help it. I will say this...because we have to look ahead so far into the future to see opportunities, many of the posters on here develop a feel over time with respect to which setups at range have real potential and are worth spending time investigating and which ones aren't.
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I personally think this is the deep souths best chance in a while and I'm still on the fence if moisture is even going to get to the upstate+ region.

But then we have multiple waves being a possibility still, so who knows. Still looks possible as a whole for the SE.
 
CaryWx said:
Wouldn't a triple pull it too far north or with blocking we just get a pasting monster off the se coast?
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Would depend on timing and sequencing most likely. Would need the northern stream to drive hard and turn it neutral and probably negative tilt at the right time to get it to work for the biggest portion of the board. @griteater is right that we really have no business trying to track something like this at such lead times, but it's hard to look away when you see the pieces staring you right in the face.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
In what alternate reality would this not produce a east coast winter storm View attachment 145885
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Here's what I would say Jimmy - drop the big incoming Gulf of Alaska wave south a little > that would change the tilt of our wave running from Baja to TX to negative tilt > plow the wave into the 5050 complex that is a little more NEast than curent > then slide the wave due east because of the confluence with the 5050 low. It would be kind of a blend between the GEM here and the Euro / Euro Control

The Deep South crew wouldn't want as much negative tilt there (too warm).

Feb 9 GEM.png
 
griteater said:
Here's what I would say Jimmy - drop the big incoming Gulf of Alaska wave south a little > that would change the tilt of our wave running from Baja to TX to negative tilt > plow the wave into the 5050 complex that is a little more NEast than curent > then slide the wave due east because of the confluence with the 5050 low. It would be kind of a blend between the GEM here and the Euro / Euro Control

The Deep South crew wouldn't want as much negative tilt there (too warm).

View attachment 145889
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Yea but Negative Tilt brings the Cadillacs to CAD regions GA/SC/NC
 
Snowfan said:
EPS too.
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Cary_Snow95 said:
This appears to be the opposite… this animation shows the ridge being replaced by a trough
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I'm sure nobody really wants to look at this but the ensembles are clearly showing a flip of EPO to + around the 22-24th and the weeklies keep it positive through the first week of March. Would be tough to overcome that.

So yeah, AK ridge replaced with trough. Hopefully the weeklies are wrong.

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-epo-box-7350400.pngecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-7436800.png
 
KyloG said:
I'm sure nobody really wants to look at this but the ensembles are clearly showing a flip of EPO to + around the 22-24th and the weeklies keep it positive through the first week of March. Would be tough to overcome that.

So yeah, AK ridge replaced with trough. Hopefully the weeklies are wrong.

View attachment 145899View attachment 145900
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Looks like Feb mjo p1-3 to me
 
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