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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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We say it so many times but this just shows how everything has to be perfect to snow in the south.
Back to Winter weather in Savannah. Only up from here. Lol
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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2017-2023 Supporter
The trailing energy continues to show up on the GFS, could be a game changer if it continues to appear.
Jan88
Member
If this model run is correct there seems to be an artic high an good track for the low so there is a chance for someone in the southeast to get winter wx.
We’re gonna need that high to keep sliding east. Wonky
Interestingly, it seems like the CMC has been the most consistent. No one is more surprised by this than me, but I checked the h5 skill scores recently and the CMC was actually second behind the Euro with the GFS and UKMET having some terrible verification scores at times.
IMO the CMC H5 solution that the 12z GFS is close to has great potential and this is what I personally am rooting for. We need to get a strong cold push and hope that we can have a little bit of the tail end of the northern stream inject into the southern wave and it will pull the system north into the cold ala yesterday's 12z GFS (or even colder depending on the timing).
IMO the CMC H5 solution that the 12z GFS is close to has great potential and this is what I personally am rooting for. We need to get a strong cold push and hope that we can have a little bit of the tail end of the northern stream inject into the southern wave and it will pull the system north into the cold ala yesterday's 12z GFS (or even colder depending on the timing).
Yeh let's not drop the Arctic circle in Dallas again.
Flotown
Member
boy that was close for a LOT of us
You ain’t kidding. I’d about take my chances with that look at 84hrs and hope the precip to the north is underdone.
Pacific looking better on the GEFS. 
I still stand by this. The probability of at least phasing 2/3 seems elevated if we can pull this setup forward.
In what alternate reality would this not produce a east coast winter storm 
GEFS coming in much colder at 180hrs. Still ways to go but that is a great look. If we can get that western ridge to keep looking stronger, we are cooking with diesel.
Wouldn't a triple pull it too far north or with blocking we just get a pasting monster off the se coast?
wow
Member
The trend has been for that low in the pacific to consolidate well off the coast, I would think that would be a common tendency for big bank to take little bank. With that being said you’d think the Atlantic side would also do the same and consolidate off the coast a little faster allowing that northern piece “fly in the ointment” to trend easterly into the main lobe allowing more high pressure to funnel in and create a more textbook overrunning type look. Just my two pennies.
You get the wave spacing and timing perfectly wrong and everything just ends up flat
It's like synchronized swimming getting all these pieces to line up. We've got no business trying to follow these things from 10 days out, but we're just deranged snow hounds afflicted with a disease and can't help it. I will say this...because we have to look ahead so far into the future to see opportunities, many of the posters on here develop a feel over time with respect to which setups at range have real potential and are worth spending time investigating and which ones aren't.
Stormlover
Member
What a difference in 1 run
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GEPS looks like it could be an improvement but we'll see
I personally think this is the deep souths best chance in a while and I'm still on the fence if moisture is even going to get to the upstate+ region.
But then we have multiple waves being a possibility still, so who knows. Still looks possible as a whole for the SE.
Would depend on timing and sequencing most likely. Would need the northern stream to drive hard and turn it neutral and probably negative tilt at the right time to get it to work for the biggest portion of the board. @griteater is right that we really have no business trying to track something like this at such lead times, but it's hard to look away when you see the pieces staring you right in the face.
Looking at 3-6C drop at 850mb temps in one run at 204hrs. That is huge for a mean.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I think the Atlantic is putting its chips on the table, just need the Pacific to be our friend and cooperate this time.
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NCSNOW
Member
So much for 70 degree weekend. 49, dropping currently and rain breaking out. Nice hybird insut-cad gonna lock in.
It’s insane that the GEFS is so much colder despite rather minimal changes at H5
NCSNOW
Member
I say lets root for a triple phaser. If ever there was a window of opportunity to not get left on the outside looking in, while folks to our north edit the Koclin history books, this is it. Whats another 10 months of snow drought. Ive become numb now its been so long.
Here's what I would say Jimmy - drop the big incoming Gulf of Alaska wave south a little > that would change the tilt of our wave running from Baja to TX to negative tilt > plow the wave into the 5050 complex that is a little more NEast than curent > then slide the wave due east because of the confluence with the 5050 low. It would be kind of a blend between the GEM here and the Euro / Euro Control
The Deep South crew wouldn't want as much negative tilt there (too warm).
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yea but Negative Tilt brings the Cadillacs to CAD regions GA/SC/NC
NCSNOW
Member
Cause its been using common core math in its programing. Needs some of that AVN hooked on phonics, programed back in it from the 90s.
Couple of SE hits on the GEFS 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
4 run trend of the GEFS 24 hour precip accumulation
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EPS too.
Cary_Snow95
Member
This appears to be the opposite… this animation shows the ridge being replaced by a trough
I'm sure nobody really wants to look at this but the ensembles are clearly showing a flip of EPO to + around the 22-24th and the weeklies keep it positive through the first week of March. Would be tough to overcome that.
So yeah, AK ridge replaced with trough. Hopefully the weeklies are wrong.
Looks like Feb mjo p1-3 to me