Pattern February 2024

[Stevo24]

I’m sure those of you that have been here long enough have seen plenty of ULL’s decide to scoot on out faster than they need too. But have any of you ever see one trend back? Just curious if it’s even possible.

 

[Arcc]

I’m sure those of you that have been here long enough have seen plenty of ULL’s decide to scoot on out faster than they need too. But have any of you ever see one trend back? Just curious if it’s even possible.

Honestly, it’s not a stretch. Normally the models do always try to push a big low over the NE out too fast and then slowly trend it back.

 

[KyloG]

Good grief...CAD don't work like that

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is ugly

 

[Stevo24]

Is our ULL being pushed out of the way by a HP? Could that actually benefit us more in the long run if it’s strong enough and in the right spot?

 

[CaryWx]

Doesn't look like there is any cad in this kind of set up

 

[CaryWx]

Is our ULL being pushed out of the way by a HP? Could that actually benefit us more in the long run if it’s strong enough and in the right spot?

Is that HP centered in the Ohio river valley? If so that's close to helping...a lot

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS surprisingly still has something but man it’s getting worse and worse.

 

[olhausen]

Yep the darkest day in snow watching for me is what I fear. Definite similarities to March 2nd 2010.

Groundhogzilla had me in therapy for years before winter made a comeback in middle Tennessee ?

 

[SD]

I’m sure those of you that have been here long enough have seen plenty of ULL’s decide to scoot on out faster than they need too. But have any of you ever see one trend back? Just curious if it’s even possible.

As long as it's passing to your south you are in the game here to some degree. Doesn't mean it works out but this isn't a situation where we are seeing an earlier more robust phasing trend where it's likely game over and you know it. Given how the models handle the polar pattern I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see eventual more positive trends but obviously that's not guaranteed. It's just hard to write this off with its track on the models when all we are missing on the gfs is a handful of degrees of cooler air or better moist advection in the euro

 

[Chazwin]

I’m sure those of you that have been here long enough have seen plenty of ULL’s decide to scoot on out faster than they need too. But have any of you ever see one trend back? Just curious if it’s even possible.

January 2022 did

 

[Triplephase93]

Imo the euro isn't that bad. Yes you can look at the products and say meh warm and s but the track of the mid level features isn't far from a classic state wide snow event. What bugs me about the euro is no matter what it does in the NE and into SE CAN it taps the shortwave into that trough and we stick in a dry N to NE flow in the mid levels, hard to precipitate with a deep N/NE flow like that. Historically I would have said euro is too dry to the north and NW but those are old model problems and I'm not sure in 2024 it still exists

GFS definitely seem to handle the 15th-16th storm best

 

[ForsythSnow]

EPS surprisingly still has something but man it’s getting worse and worse. View attachment 144110

Real question is whether it's many small or one big storm out of all its members. If that's all from 4 members yeah this one's all gone. Otherwise I have to wonder what it's doing upstream to cause snow.

 

[iGRXY]

The EPS looking bad at this lead is a cause for concern IMO.

 

[iGRXY]

Real question is whether it's many small or one big storm out of all its members. If that's all from 4 members yeah this one's all gone. Otherwise I have to wonder what it's doing upstream to cause snow.

I wouldn't say it's all gone at day 6/7 but it's not promising.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

In order for a CAD to actually pump in something more colder, with the look now, need another trailing piece of Arctic energy behind the initial/first one that digs in the NE, the GFS is a example of that, has another trailing S/W exiting Hudson Bay at day 6.5, which sort of refreshes the feed. with the amount of time we have and how bad models are struggling in Canada, it’s possible I guess

 

[ILMRoss]

EPS surprisingly still has something but man it’s getting worse and worse. View attachment 144110

speaks to the latent potential this event has and why there was a palpable buzz yesterday. the cold source not hanging around is such a kick in the gonads. as griteater pointed out earlier, the ULL and circulations breezing past at their low latitude is rare and hugely beneficial to us and it would be, ahem, "character building" to have an all rain event in that set up

 

[Rain Cold]

This is ugly View attachment 144109

On the bright side, if we keep these trends up, we still have enough time for the blues from the left to replace the reds in the middle which replaced the blues and greens on the right.

 

[KyloG]

In order for a CAD to actually pump in something more colder, with the look now, need another trailing piece of Arctic energy behind the initial/first one that digs in the NE, the GFS is a example of that, has another trailing S/W exiting Hudson Bay at day 6.5, which sort of refreshes the feed. with the amount of time we have and how bad models are struggling in Canada, it’s possible I guess View attachment 144112

Can see the omega ridge needs to weaken

 

[KyloG]

We, the southeast, might not verbatim “torch” but the first half of Feb is a blowtorch for the eastern half of US. Prime climo down the drain…no sugar coating that.

But, 3rd week of weeklies looks great