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Pattern February 2024

We may not get any cold push and this thing may not work out, but the fact at 144 hours the Euro is closest to the Canadian definitely makes you step back and pause. UKMET is not a trash model, it has certainly had some poor performances over the years BUT it is also one model I can also say I have seen independently lead the way and whip all other models at H5 in the last two years for an event.

There's really no way to know which way this will go yet, but obviously the past few cycles overall aren't what we'd want to see. There's still too many players on the field, too close to prime positioning, to quit on this one though.

97c2e625-c265-4721-8daa-bd1049d8d0d2.gif
 
griteater said:
February Playbook:
Feb 5: Winter storm chance possible
Feb 1-10: Low pressure replaced with High pressure in East Asia
Feb 10-15: Momentum added into the Pac Jet; Aleutian Low swells and moves east; SW trough kicks east; AK and/or GLand Blocking Increases
Feb 15-25: Southern stream becomes more active; Chances for winter storm or 2 increases
Late Feb into Early Mar: Favorable pattern continues for the most part; favorable MJO phases

Possible Outcomes: Glory Delivered! / Can Kickage / Fail Boat

Euro Weeklies Feb 6 to Mar 12 in 7-day increments
View attachment 143490
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Checking in on the February Playbook 3 days later with updates in red:

February Playbook (1/26):
Feb 5: Winter storm chance possible - we have a winter storm chance on Feb 4-5

Feb 1-10: Low pressure replaced with High pressure in East Asia - this is on track and is the feature that adds confidence to the long range forecast. Sfc high pressure anomalies start in Africa in early Feb and migrate east to SE Asia by Feb 10

Feb 10-15: Momentum added into the Pac Jet; Aleutian Low swells and moves east; SW trough kicks east; AK and/or GLand Blocking Increases - this afternoon's Euro Weeklies show this progresson well albeit with a couple days of can kickage. In addition, the last 5 runs of the Euro Wk have shown a weakening trend with the Strat PV beginning the 2nd week of Feb. If this occurs in conjunction with weakening at lower levels of the strat, this would help with the development of high latitude blocking (-AO / -NAO) - see image loop below

Feb 15-25: Southern stream becomes more active; Chances for winter storm or 2 increases - on track here; today's Euro Weeklies is best run to date (images below) - right in the vicinity of President's Day looks like the highest potential IMO (Feb 19-21)

Late Feb into Early Mar: Favorable pattern continues for the most part; favorable MJO phases - no changes

Possible Outcomes: Glory Delivered! / Can Kickage / Fail Boat

Jan 29 Euro Wk 500.png

Jan 29 Euro Wk 500 Feb 22.png

Jan 29 Euro Wk Strat.gif
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like less confluence on the gfs though. Dang
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I think that shortwave coming in is at least a small piece to help pull some of the energy out of the vortex to its NE. Looks like it's originally what the euro blocked into the great lakes when it was hyper amplified and way SW
 
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