iGRXY
Member
I'll be honest this isn't a bad look. Yes the 50/50 is further east but it is in a more classic position and is deepening and slowing. the S/W is diving south also.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I'll be honest this isn't a bad look. Yes the 50/50 is further east but it is in a more classic position and is deepening and slowing. the S/W is diving south also.
The omega ridge sliding east is not what we want...that just drags the warm air where we don't want it. Only way this will work is if we get some of the n/s energy injected in and that is moving the wrong way. We trying to make lemonade and we got no lemons.
End of the long range GFS & CMC ensemble show the beginning stages of a great pattern. The extended goes on to keep us there through March. Regardless of what this system does in Early Feb, the real prime time to watch will be mid to late Feb.
It's going to be fun to watch the qpf/sim radar plots over the coming days. 24-48 hours ago this system had 0 chance on the models at over performing on the front of the system. Now with a less impressive N to NE dry flow preceding the system its fair to start questioning the precipitation arrival time and ptype and how an initial thump changes the character of the system
Euro is cold enough for a lot of NC but the precip just doesnt make it here.
C'mon man!
Hard to believe that will verify. Not sure what the correct look would be but can't see this being it.C'mon man!
griteater
Member
I think it can still work without the injection, but yeah, it can’t just scoot on out unabated
The trend is in
My one hope is if CAD ends up being a player, the models will trend colder (surface & dew points) as we get closer.
Edit: it will trend back colder...
Edit: it will trend back colder...
I wonder how does the ICON spit out snow...it's never been an overly biased cold model. I haven't really looked at it.
Would be an interesting evolution indeed to go from a suppression to a snowstorm to a rainstorm to an ice storm.
No you have lemons, just not sugar plus Jimmy peed in it.
Imo the euro isn't that bad. Yes you can look at the products and say meh warm and s but the track of the mid level features isn't far from a classic state wide snow event. What bugs me about the euro is no matter what it does in the NE and into SE CAN it taps the shortwave into that trough and we stick in a dry N to NE flow in the mid levels, hard to precipitate with a deep N/NE flow like that. Historically I would have said euro is too dry to the north and NW but those are old model problems and I'm not sure in 2024 it still exists
BHS1975
Member
I did go back and look yesterday on how the Euro/GFS handled the snow event in the NE yesterday...the op runs were awful at this range but the EPS was solid even at day 7 for a general idea of what occurred. Op runs didn't get a clue until inside day 5...give or take.