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Pattern February 2024

Now this is a winter storm

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  • Slight risk of heavy snow over the Southern and Central Appalachians, Sun-Wed, Feb 18-21.


While there is greater uncertainty in the northward extent of storm track as it enters the Atlantic, there is support for accumulating and potentially heavy snow on the backside of the low. Increased signals are depicted in the GEFS based SWE tool over Central and Southern Appalachians and a slight risk of heavy snow is issued for Feb 18-21. This snow area may be expanded further northward and also include lower elevation areas of the eastern seaboard in upcoming outlooks once ensembles get a better handle on the eventual storm track. Over the northeastern CONUS, a slight risk of high winds remains issued for Feb 16-20 given persistent troughing and surface low pressure forecast over the Canadian Maritimes which may induce strengthening pressure gradients. Similar to the snow risk further south, this wind hazard is subject to change in upcoming outlooks based on the aforementioned storm track over the Atlantic later in the period.
 
There goes GFS again with that trailing cutoff low on the 19th. I’m a big fan of this proposition but there’s no way you could put any stock In that at this lead. That thing could be in Flint Michigan or gone completely come verification. But I like it!
 
Don’t know if this should be exciting but the GFS has the weakest height suppression out of any model and still produces a winter storm for CAD areas… View attachment 145774
Yeah. And with those runs a day or two ago with snow into the GA/FL border the 500mb pattern left a lot to be desired but still produced
 
was gonna complain but us here in nwest bama had our snow so i wont..this looks to be a carolina storm...if anything at all
Way too early to write this one off for anyone IMO just as it's too early for anyone to count on a hit IMO. The jury is still out on whether or not an Arctic plunge comes down the lee of the Rockies ahead of the modeled system. Or not.
 
The globals don't know what to do with the pacific...it's a mess at day 9 trying to figure that out. EPS is in between the GEFS/GEPS so it's probably the most right.

But I say...if you blend the 3 ensembles Raleigh get's a foot.

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Please don’t tell me this is another troll account
Sorry to disappoint you, but no I am not trolling. I sue to have an account here under Buckfever2. my son love to watch and follow what was going on. I replied and posted somewhat but…I lost him a year ago and stopped following but.. Weather has always been an enjoyment for me. I am nearly as good as it as following and understand it the way most of the people on here are but, every once in a while, I might post something. But no need to worry. I’ll delete my account can’t deal with this type of BS .
 
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