Pattern February 2024

[CaryWx]

Kind of feels like we are going to run face first into an ice storm here tbh.

On the local you are darn borderline for sleet to big zr and I'm a little better off in the sleet dept. I guess 850s are somewhere in Va

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Where were these runs the other day with our low tracking to the south? Why can’t we just blow it up over the FL panhandle? One time?

 

[Mitch West]

We are probably going to see a significant spike in the Western NC on the GEFS with some big hits. I've seen us trend warmer like this before but over a couple day period. We have went from one extreme to the other in 24 hours. Makes more sense though with us talking about a storm 7-8 days out & not 3-5. What's wild is just the change up of the set up in general.

 

[Carolina Sky]

Seems like the typical evolution with the models. Outside 7 days they show the potential for a good snowstorm. Then between days 7 and 4 they go back and forth between rain, snow and ice. May even lose the storm all together. Then 3 days out things start to become clear one way or the other.

 

[Chazwin]

That's honestly what I was thinking from looking at the GFS and CMC. You're probably going to lose the ML temps due too the further east 50/50 but the bowling ball coming out of the west is stronger and deeper. Surface temps probably would work out but we lose the midlevels

With that stronger 500mb low however, you can get some dynamic cooling at the mid levels. This can really help if you’re 850s are just a degree or two off.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Nuke

 

[iGRXY]

With that stronger 500mb low however, you can get some dynamic cooling at the mid levels. This can really help if you’re 850s are just a degree or two off.

Problem is you have to get the track going really well vs already having it locked in from our Northeast. We can win with a bomb ULL and combine it with some CAD but we just will be running on a fine line

 

[RoddyPiper]

NukeView attachment 144071

Flooding is going to be a BIG issue in the Carolinas with this.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS stopped that bad trend at 500mb and has a slightly better cold feed so far

 

[BullCityWx]

Pretty sure thats like 4" of sleet IMBY.

 

[griteater]

12z ICON vs. UKMET. UKMet seems to have a pretty good cold air setup / feed - not strong with the wave

 

[Oconeexman]

I’ll just post this without context to get the good mojo flowing in here. Cant hurt I don’t think

Sugar/beech staring down the barrel of another monster. Might have to push my dates up View attachment 144070

That looks very accurate...has the Oconee warm nose!

 

[Mitch West]

GEFS stopped that bad trend at 500mb and has a slightly better cold feed so far

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs really liking the Piedmont/foothills /mountains/upstate of SC, I’m starting to notice on modeling that’s a highly favored area on solutions

 

[Mitch West]

Gefs really liking the Piedmont/foothills /mountains/upstate of SC, I’m starting to notice on modeling that’s a highly favored area on solutions

IF this storm turns into an all out ULL rage storm, then pockets of cold air aloft are going to do some weird things.

 

[griteater]

GEFS adjustments - taller Canadian ridge; stronger wave with heights trend south in the Gulf and E of Florida; SW trend with the heights over the NEast

 

[CaryWx]

GEFS adjustments - taller Canadian ridge; stronger wave with heights trend south in the Gulf and E of Florida; SW trend with the heights over the NEast

View attachment 144076

grit, Is there significance in the 552 opening up like that and encompassing the sw?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[rburrel2]

The key take away here, we've curbed the horrible trend theme and now have generally improved at 12z... and we're still in the crosshairs.

Another few sets of runs/trends in our favor and this is a monster storm for a lot of folks.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC ens