lexxnchloe
Member
Now this is a winter storm
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 531
- Reaction score
- 1,461
- Slight risk of heavy snow over the Southern and Central Appalachians, Sun-Wed, Feb 18-21.
While there is greater uncertainty in the northward extent of storm track as it enters the Atlantic, there is support for accumulating and potentially heavy snow on the backside of the low. Increased signals are depicted in the GEFS based SWE tool over Central and Southern Appalachians and a slight risk of heavy snow is issued for Feb 18-21. This snow area may be expanded further northward and also include lower elevation areas of the eastern seaboard in upcoming outlooks once ensembles get a better handle on the eventual storm track. Over the northeastern CONUS, a slight risk of high winds remains issued for Feb 16-20 given persistent troughing and surface low pressure forecast over the Canadian Maritimes which may induce strengthening pressure gradients. Similar to the snow risk further south, this wind hazard is subject to change in upcoming outlooks based on the aforementioned storm track over the Atlantic later in the period.
Cool look here on the Euro Ctrl where the wave climbs NE out of Baja and runs into the block and says Nope, I think I'll just slide off to the east
Look how much more cleaner the GFS has gotten out west. Good trend here on a OP in the medium range 
Triple phase on the table.
Dig and Speed up the northern stream trough around the lakes and the setup is ?
Give me Miller B mixed bag or give me death
Give me Miller B mixed bag or give me death
Nice wedge setup on the GFS 
I had that typed in but deleted it…I didn’t want to temp fate.
There goes GFS again with that trailing cutoff low on the 19th. I’m a big fan of this proposition but there’s no way you could put any stock In that at this lead. That thing could be in Flint Michigan or gone completely come verification. But I like it!
Don’t know if this should be exciting but the GFS has the weakest height suppression out of any model and still produces a winter storm for CAD areas… 
Yeah. And with those runs a day or two ago with snow into the GA/FL border the 500mb pattern left a lot to be desired but still produced
packfan98
Moderator
Can anyone find I-85 for me????
zoinks! the iceCan anyone find I-85 for me????
This system kinda looks to favor midlands of SC. Finally a run where everything don’t stop at the border of NC/SC
2 back to back runs where wintry precip makes it into midlands.
It's just cool that we are seeing a bit of alignment here. Just sucks it's past 10 days. Fun weekend (hopefully) ahead.
If we can get a good cold blend between these there's some white gold to be had
Flotown
Member
was gonna complain but us here in nwest bama had our snow so i wont..this looks to be a carolina storm...if anything at all
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Please don’t tell me this is another troll account
Way too early to write this one off for anyone IMO just as it's too early for anyone to count on a hit IMO. The jury is still out on whether or not an Arctic plunge comes down the lee of the Rockies ahead of the modeled system. Or not.
The globals don't know what to do with the pacific...it's a mess at day 9 trying to figure that out. EPS is in between the GEFS/GEPS so it's probably the most right.
But I say...if you blend the 3 ensembles Raleigh get's a foot.
But I say...if you blend the 3 ensembles Raleigh get's a foot.
This GEFS run doing wonky things in the northern plains/NW at H5, don’t like
So much low pressure...pacific is a guess for these ensembles right now. It's why GEFS is showing warmer 2m temps….relative
Last edited:
DAWG4LIFE
Member
Sorry to disappoint you, but no I am not trolling. I sue to have an account here under Buckfever2. my son love to watch and follow what was going on. I replied and posted somewhat but…I lost him a year ago and stopped following but.. Weather has always been an enjoyment for me. I am nearly as good as it as following and understand it the way most of the people on here are but, every once in a while, I might post something. But no need to worry. I’ll delete my account can’t deal with this type of BS .
This is what I’m talking about to clear up any confusion 
Itryatgolf
Member
I know griteater mentioned earlier about a jet retraction should happen later in February. I believe the pacific is going to be too active to allow much cold air to come down imo or at least cold enough imo
Every tele is loaded at day 7-9, makes sense we have a look showing up just right after
Itryatgolf
Member
Jet retraction?
Day 10-15 Comparison for EPS / CMCE / GEFS
Various differences, but EPS and CMCE are stronger with the low on the Atlantic side (better) and GEFS is stronger with the low on the Pacific side (worse). We want that strong 5050 low for storm track suppression and some cold air supply south
Various differences, but EPS and CMCE are stronger with the low on the Atlantic side (better) and GEFS is stronger with the low on the Pacific side (worse). We want that strong 5050 low for storm track suppression and some cold air supply south
Yeah, it extends to Baja, then just starts to collapse and weaken in the E Pac. It's just part of the players, not saying it's going to make everything right in the end
This is a decent look here at the end of the EPS run after our storm of interest. Strong low anomalies there in the NW Atlantic (5050) keep the storm track suppressed for the most part
