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Pattern February 2024

Even on the horrendous 6z GFS, the margin for error is razor thin once the low gets off the coast and starts pulling in the northern stream behind it. Sounding below is from Charlotte. Very close to a sleet or freezing rain sounding with the warm nose. Obviously foolish to look at these types of details this far out, but if all else remains constant or improves just the slightest when we get in range of the higher resolution modeling...

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ICON gets the high pressure in place behind the 50/50 low in damming fashion with the cool, dry air feed. You can see how the 850 deg 0 is pretty far to the NE initially, but it gets yanked to the SW into the damming regions as precip starts to fall as others have mentioned

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iGRXY said:
Honestly I thought it was better because you're avoiding the suppression issues in this case. I would also expect the ICON to have more precip than it showed. It had a nice bowling ball at 500mb and a 997 surface low right off of the carolina coast. but only dropped between 0.5-0.75" of liquid precip.
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Definitely not worried about precip on the ICON if we get that 500mb evolution. I agree it's too low
 
1300m said:
Beating a dead horse here, but 12z ICON also joins the club of northern stream injection = more wintry solution. I really hope this is the direction we head, because if it is, I think a stronger vort max between the upper ridge and strong vortex could emerge in future cycles and interact with the southern wave, which would be the big dog option.

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Exactly, saw this too. Whether ICON is good model or bad, believable or not, it shows what needs to occur to get it done. That NS injection into a system this far out is anything but settled
 
metwannabe said:
Exactly, saw this too. Whether ICON is good model or bad, believable or not, it shows what needs to occur to get it done. That NS injection into a system this far out is anything but settled
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It's definitely probably going to start good trends today. I've seen it too many times when it starts showing bad runs everyone dismisses it because it's the Icon, yet the GFS and others usually follow somewhat. Maybe not but we'll know shortly
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
It's definitely probably going to start good trends today. I've seen it too many times when it starts showing bad runs everyone dismisses it because it's the Icon, yet the GFS and others usually follow somewhat. Maybe not but we'll know shortly
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12z ICON is showing a solution that a subset of 06z GEFS members were showing. So if 12z GFS does go in that direction, it really shouldn't be viewed as a surprise or that the ICON is somehow "leading the way". ICON is not a stable or reliable model at this range, I will be the first to admit that, but then again what guidance has been stable or consistent at this range, and especially with this particular event?
 
1300m said:
12z ICON is showing a solution that a subset of 06z GEFS members were showing. So if 12z GFS does go in that direction, it really shouldn't be viewed as a surprise or that the ICON is somehow "leading the way". ICON is not a stable or reliable model at this range, I will be the first to admit that, but then again what guidance has been stable or consistent at this range, and especially with this particular event?
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That’s the thing - the Euro is the best performing model in the world, but it ain’t what it used to be, and all of these models spit out various solutions that you just try to mold into a big blend, especially at this forecast range of 6-7 days
 
griteater said:
That’s the thing - the Euro is the best performing model in the world, but it ain’t what it used to be, and all of these models spit out various solutions that you just try to mold into a big blend, especially at this forecast range of 6-7 days
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Yeah, it's like we have one massive ensemble suite. Blend and look at trends, sounds weird but might just be the best guesstimate this far out lol
 
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