This run is nuking the foothills/western Piedmont and mountains 
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I mean if you think about this is far from being over lol, all it takes is a few swings back the other way because the southern stream wave has trended more amped/juiced. Certainly don’t wanna see anymore trends at H5 away though in the NE, but the WNC nuking kinda shows the potential of this system even with a mediocre ass cold feed 
coldfront22
Member
I thought there is no way this storm could cut?
coldfront22
Member
Crazy GFS Run
I don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling 
coldfront22
Member
I’m corrected. You’re right…. Still a ways to go on this storm.
I mean if we lose the low in the NE completely it would probably go north some more, hope that doesn’t happen but it’s possible
SnowNiner
Member
I think our blocking has really sucked this year. No true, real Greenland block keeping 50/50s where we need then. That thing is gone. So storm cuts
It doesn’t cut. It takes a further north track but it’s still moving east… then it looks like it transfers to a new low on the coast in a Miller B type set up which explains why the Foothills and Western Piedmont get pasted… there’s obviously some strong FGEN forcing to cool the column in those areas. This is actually the scenario I thought of yesterday when mets were posting the CMC and ICON that showed the low in that location
There’s no cutter, it’s just super amped with no cold air, cutter is it goes to our NW up into the Ohio valley/MA/NE or lakes
Yeah this certainly not a cutter. Like I said if anything it’s setting up a Miller B transfer. This is honestly a solution that we could see even if the confluence improves and CAD trends stronger.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The 00z Spire showed what can happen when things go right with a miller B
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Let’s be honest on this one, there really is not clarity or consensus on the modeling right now and they are kinda going all over the place. Our cold feed has definitely trended the wrong way on a lot models since last night but it’s trended better on both the ICON and UK. This really kinda reminds of that first storm in January 2022 when it was about 3 days about the globals really started to come into any sort of agreement.
MichaelJ
Member
Watching the EURO, we see why we aptly named it Dr No years ago
I just never seen any hp in place to the north to keep it from cutting. The last few days of gfs runs just don't reflect reality as the orientation ots. It's just looked funky this is more believable imo.
rburrel2
Member
Guys the surface low is literally doing the opposite of cutting thanks to the omega block. It's moving from the NW to the SE across the country.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That's def a Miller B look and as fro said if we had some additional energy sliding down out of Canada we'd be in business
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Again though… this didn’t cut and yes it would have a tough time doing that with the Canadian ridge to the north