• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

Pretty wild members there. No outlier skewing the mean. You legit have several big dawgs in there even through South Carolina. To me, this has been the most surprising GEFS so far, especially after 24 hours straight just about of awful trends.
 
with the h5 ull getting forced laterally as it is. we often talk about threading the needle.

kind of think this is the opposite. margin of error is much larger than usual. which is why models dragged us through glass shards today and we still have fantasy ensemble members to grasp at
 
You can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again 962AB24D-E7E7-4387-9129-17419708DA14.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
You can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again View attachment 144175
Click to expand...
For ex. Look at how the negative runs the little piece of energy was more prevalent, now at 18z with it being weaker, heights were lowered again to our NE D394D9AF-D46E-48C0-8B42-76DF90A42620.gifBE7273BE-6CF4-4323-81D4-AA35E0067F74.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling View attachment 144145
Click to expand...
There’s no mechanism to really make it cut I don’t think. It just kind of goes nuclear and naturally pulls north a bit. Am I dumb for thinking this?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
You can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again View attachment 144175
Click to expand...
Stuff like this is why I love this place. Would have never thought of that much. I learn so much from this place.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For ex. Look at how the negative runs the little piece of energy was more prevalent, now at 18z with it being weaker, heights were lowered again to our NE View attachment 144176View attachment 144177
Click to expand...
Man you are really good at this and definitely need to consider becoming a meteorologist. That little bit of energy is something I never would have looked for when looking at the H5 charts
 
Chazwin said:
Man you are really good at this and definitely need to consider becoming a meteorologist. That little bit of energy is something I never would have looked for when looking at the H5 charts
Click to expand...
I bet @LukeBarrette and VA Tech is ready for him. Good catch @Myfrotho704_
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 144184
This is WAYYYYY better. Ridge and confluence is further west. S/W looks better also
Click to expand...
Here's the GEFS 48 hour trend for comparison
0a6c9cbeefb70b349c8ad1de3b5d4335.gif


Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top