Dang just noticed MSP is at 6-8" on the season and they average over 50" on the season.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
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Dang just noticed MSP is at 6-8" on the season and they average over 50" on the season.
If the models were wrong couple of days ago with the cold and snow chances, then why can’t they be wrong with the breaking down of the ridge out west and the warmer pattern that is showing now? I think winter is still not over by a long shot and I still think a lot of folks will get snow before spring. Cold will be back on the models soon, maybe not record breaking cold but cold enough.
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WolfpackHomer91
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Problem is the next "potential" is 2/18-20...after that all the globals agree on a Npac ridge developing and a big low gets parked over AK. Fortunately we still have blocking so it's not a torch but not one conducive to snow. So that puts us at the end of Feb...any sort of better pattern will take a few days to develop and at that point we are into the first week of March, at best,...climo says winter/snow is over for most outside the mtns/foothills after the first week of March.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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“thUnDEr iN WiNtEr mEaNs SnOW a wEEK laTeR”
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EPS actually improved here but yall go off spiking a football 192 hours out.
Some of you were never told to read more and post less and it shows.
Some of you were never told to read more and post less and it shows.
This day 8 deal could easily work out...we just need a little help from the pacific....just a mediocre ridge would probably do it.
-EPO spike, big ridge of the AK region is very nice.
-EPO spike, big ridge of the AK region is very nice.
For reference sake
Wintry - Winter Discussion 2023/24
Ask and ye shall receive! Going to be another stinker for the SE. Probably end up +2 - +5 for D-M with AN precip. Why? Nino, plus whatever the background reason for the parade of wintertime -PNAs, cool upper-midwest patterns, routine MJO P3-6s, and neutral/+NAO regimes that we've been stuck...
southernwx.com
Looks good. You would have to assume the cold would continue to press in.
Dew points at the same time:
the power of 1050+ high dropping down...just need to fiddle with the pv pressing down so hard
If the northern stream gets through first the icon would have been OK but likely suppressed
That day 5-6 trough ridge trough interaction out west makes me want to punch air. Clean it up and we are gold muck it up and the entire downstream pattern sucks
Yep, too much and it squashes everything. But we need the stength of the high to give us the cold. We need (somewhat) perfect timing.
Side note: I like the cut off (time range) for the Icon. as we've seen, anything past day 7 is crap.
lexxnchloe
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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wow
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ICON threatening with a huge phasing event. Or shreds the wave and nothing happens.
CLTStrong69
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Not to pick on you Falls, you're a great long time poster on this forum. Just an opportunity to use as an example for those posting maps.
Please include the color scales when posting so that we can know exactly what the map is depicting. Sorry - not trying to derail the thread. Mods please remove if needed.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Might see a phase this run
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Losing the Canadian
Snowman melting again
Gonna need that ridge out west to cooperate or it can’t dig enough for a phase to even matter unfortunately. Really needed that high to slide in with a quiet northern stream for even just a single day and this winter storm would still have legs.
That bottled up black hole does nothing for us. I think that’s the most disappointing part. You would think something like this would have a chance around here. Maybe it still does idk 
Oconeexman
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Back to the great lakes low wont let it snow crap. Still time for positive trends but faith is fading.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I think it's models as usual with a pattern change, a bit manic depressive....As long as we've been studying the 17th-19th storm, it seems as if it should have already happened. One thing that I noticed through the years, as with this pattern change, we get many different perspectives with each run, thus, MBY has shown snow, rain, no precip, warm and cold. This is normal M.O. for the models. Though right now it is discouraging, remember how many good snows we have gotten in MBY, that have held steady on the models as they actually occurred for 240plus hours( on any model). We have to at least be encouraged the pattern seems to be changing because of such model variance.
I like the GEPS better here...GEFS/GFS was right about the pacific causing problems but colder makes more sense with that strong a -EPO
The PV positioning needs some work though.
The PV positioning needs some work though.
If the ridge at day 5-6 wasn’t so undercut and there wasn’t that much interaction in the PNW, after would look so much better, it affects our storm. We need more base to that ridge
Yeah. With the -EPO and the strong ridging over Alaska to go with the strong 50/50, it definitely suggests there should be a much colder look at the surface
This is really the problem time period if the WC ridge stayed clean the wave coming down through the Prarie provinces digs refreshes the cold and feeds into the 50/50 low construct. Without it digging the flow across the conus gets zonal and the cold locks to the north waiting for the next wave. It also doesnt help that the nao pretty much has gone caput
WolfpackHomer91
Member
IMO , To an untrained eye of mine….. this storm next weekend doesn’t need near as much to change or wishcasting to get a Solid Event for Most of NC/SC/VA I-85 N/W as the one we kept saying “ohhhh it’s close it’s close” from last weekend.
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We need a UK like solution where the trough escapes east and we get another renewed cold feed 
Agreed...I also feel like the EPS at day 7 is probably the most right of any of the ensembles. And I feel like if the west coast ridge can trend a little better that could be enough. Of course if it gets washed out then it's threat over.
This isn't a bad setup...but in the years it snows we get snow out of these setups and the years we don't we screw it up.
Don't you have weathermodels still? UK goes out to 168 on that site and of course our favorite model...the KMA might have something.
I let my subsricption lapse...I was paying like $99/year but they are forcing me to pay $179 so I stopped. Was getting tired of paying money to track rain ...will just stick with weatherbell.
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Back in the Day Matt East used to say UK was a good bet to show what EURO would on its next run or close. I think the closer we get Those two are truly in their wheelhouse Monday (5 days and In). I wonder what scores are for the 5 day or less period of these models vs 7-8 Day range, good or bad
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It's interesting how so far the 12z op runs all handle the pac interaction different. The icon is the best to really drop arctic cold into the US after the 18th storm..
UKMET at D7, KMA still hasn’t loaded yet
