Pattern February 2024

[SD]

I don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling View attachment 144145

Need to start a severe weather thread at this rate

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs has the 50/50 slightly west as the storm is occurring, looks like another solid run for the same areas, but probably heavy hitters or nothing, no in between

 

[SNOWMANN]

Again though… this didn’t cut and yes it would have a tough time doing that with the Canadian ridge to the north

Thanks for the clarification I was wondering what would prevent this from cutting.

 

[SNOWMANN]

Gefs has the 50/50 slightly west as the storm is occurring, looks like another solid run for the same areas, but probably heavy hitters or nothing, no in between

Go big or go home seems the theme the last few years at least here in the lee anyway.

 

[KyloG]

GEFS ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like more hits probs went up back up pretty nicely
Also it’s not done..

 

[SD]

This gfs look with the occluded parent near the arklatex and a secondary low over the NE gulf or off the SE coast has existed in the MSLP field on the ens for days. It'll be hard to keep a single low with this rig stacking rapidly under the Canadian block almost getting into rex block territory. It's actually not a bad process for the Carolinas and NE Ga

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[CaryWx]

Be in the euro's 18z range tonight I think or darn close

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This gfs look with the occluded parent near the arklatex and a secondary low over the NE gulf or off the SE coast has existed in the MSLP field on the ens for days. It'll be hard to keep a single low with this rig stacking rapidly under the Canadian block almost getting into rex block territory. It's actually not a bad process for the Carolinas and NE Ga

Yep can see it nicely this run nosing back into the Carolinas. Coincidentally it’s where the most snow is

 

[packfan98]

I count 8/20 members with at least 6 inches outside the mountains.

 

[CaryWx]

Man those 850s are sooo close.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

with the way the ens look it’s only a matter of time before we land a crusher GFS run imo for more areas, it’s gonna fall on that side eventually, but does it happen and trend to that and stay. We hope, and it could, but it might not

 

[CaryWx]

Yep can see it nicely this run nosing back into the Carolinas. Coincidentally it’s where the most snow is View attachment 144163View attachment 144164View attachment 144165

Trying to get a bead on the track of that slp. miller-b? Still diving southeast when it B's off the coast even further southeast??. Not a parallel xfer or the typical ne xfer off the coast.

 

[packfan98]

Yep can see it nicely this run nosing back into the Carolinas. Coincidentally it’s where the most snow is View attachment 144163View attachment 144164View attachment 144165

To add to this, there’s not a lot of freezing rain and sleet showing up this run like we’ve seen on earlier runs. This has more upper air cooling and column crashing which favors snow instead of mixed bags.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Trying to get a bead on the track of that slp. miller-b? Still diving southeast when it B's off the coast even further southeast??. Not a parallel xfer or the typical ne xfer off the coast.

It’s a weird transfer, intial LP moves into the western/central SE, then new one forms along the BC zone along the coast and as the embedded vort inside the ULL wobbles south and helps force that

 

[packfan98]

with the way the ens look it’s only a matter of time before we land a crusher GFS run imo for more areas, it’s gonna fall on that side eventually, but does it happen and trend to that and stay. We hope, and it could, but it might not

There’s definitely potential for a slow mover if the low isn’t moving SE. the blocking and confluence argue for a long duration event.

 

[mrdaddyman]

There’s no cutter, it’s just super amped with no cold air, cutter is it goes to our NW up into the Ohio valley/MA/NE or lakes View attachment 144146

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed how big of a mess this system is on a lot of the models? There are several centers of LPs that are spread out. Wouldn't it benefit us more to some degree if it were more consolidated and stronger with regards to cooling? It may not make a difference, but just thought I would throw this out there.

 

[1300m]

18z GEFS it's still the same story. Members where northern stream energy gets involved explode. P01 being a prime example.

 

[Carolina Sky]

I count 8/20 members with at least 6 inches outside the mountains.

I think the last run had more big hits outside the mountains for NC. But once again it's mostly big hits or nothing.