Yeah the storm of interest is just the tip of the ice burg and an intro to a good, long pattern. I’d imagine with this look the “where the cold at” posters do have a valid reason, storm track verbatim here is good but cold delivery could maybe be a issue after the storm of interest until we get renewed western ridging, but I’d take that look still anytime with a suppressed height field
Yeah get a little sharpening there with both the west coast ridging and west based block / 5050 and you should add more high pressure in the GLakes. We’re usually staring down a big West Atlantic ridge, so this is a detour from patterns of recent years
Yeah but its cold bias is at the surface. That has nothing to do with the 500mb representation, which you’re correct that does seem to match up the best with the teleconnections
Wish we could end the vortex here that way we can go from instant winter to instant summer once the MJO becomes favorable for warm phases in later March/April. Final warming/tropical forcing in cool/blocky phases the last decade has screwed our springs over with low T -------- and ---- April frosts. I want a torchy mid-late spring aka 80s and 90s late April/early May. This is the glimpse of the heat weenie in me starting to get antsy for warmer times. I’ll hide the warmth urges for another extended amount of time though just because the pattern looks so good, and I want snow really badStill a solid signal of a major SSWE mid-month. At the very least, a disrupted and stretched polar vortex is pretty much a given with little signal of a rapid recovery, unlike the somewhat weaker SSWE in January.
I love that upstate wedge; I can wait till spring for the 70s!
Sure is. And, that TPV over the Canadian archipelago is diving due south too bringing the N. Pole with it.
No don’t worry about, I’m sorry I said that. Post whenever you want and feel free to ask questions.
Looks like it’s related to the actually tropospheric PV itself. Could be a good thing if in the right spot for a phase, since it’s bringing down intense cold, but I’d rather have that out of there or ahead of the southern stream wave. Keep the lakes clean
trends tonight.
Yeah that thing was dragging some real cold with it. But I agree. Either get it out of there or let it feed our 50/50 before our SS wave kicks
Tomer burg seems to agree as well. The angle of the subtropical jet and the entrance is very far south, unusually far south.
It could have been a banger if the TPV near the lakes is 12-24 hours slower or not quite as deep too. Sufficient cold was already in place.
Yeah a lot of times we have a wave coming in from Oregon and we're trying to get it to drop south of us of course. Having the low latitude starting point (Baja or even south of Baja, which is crazy) gives us the extra wiggle room. What you'd like to see here I'd say is for this to be a healthy wave that moves NE from S Baja and just plow right into the 5050 low anomalies, and then be forced to slow down and just slide east. Really, much like that Euro Ctrl run today, but with a healthier wave...and with the cold temperatures holding firm due to the cold core 5050 low
