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Pattern February 2024

Myfrotho704_ said:
CMC ens is disgusting
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I guess it shows there's ways that it can miss us to the north too???
1707296400-CxpMbUdCaGg.png
 
packfan98 said:
GEFS is quite a bit colder aloft and at the surface. we just need the low to stall and track up the coast. We finally get a strong Miller A and are missing the SE ridging. NS energy and bombogenesis would work too. so delicate a setup.
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We always say we find new ways constantly to screw up. That's true
But we also constantly have to find new ways to thread the needle. This one here, I never recall such a fickle, crazy way to get it to work. Not the bowling ball track, but to get the cold in here. If we could just shift all the features up above us, west about 75-100 miles, we'd be golden. My biggest concern remains the cold. Hopefully the foreign guidance wins out over the gfs again.
 
NCSNOW said:
We always say we find new ways constantly to screw up. That's true
But we also constantly have to find new ways to thread the needle. This one here, I never recall such a fickle, crazy way to get it to work. Not the bowling ball track, but to get the cold in here. If we could just shift all the features up above us, west about 75-100 miles, we'd be golden. My biggest concern remains the cold. Hopefully the foreign guidance wins out over the gfs again.
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Where in NC are you?
 
We are running the gamut of possible outcomes here. 1. Miller A giving snow to a lot of folks here. 2. Miller B transferring energy to another low on the coast causing a lot of ice. 3. NE low moving away too quickly giving everyone south of Va a very cold rain. 3. massive phasing with the NS causing top much warmer air to be pumped in causing rain/ice. 4. Being suppressed by a much stronger cold push and limiting any snow to the immediate coasts of NC/SC. 5. Low gets sheared by the NS and giving very light precip to a few areas. 6. Phasing occurs too late to help any of us.
Take your pick, mine is door #5
 
Just went back and read RDU's overnight writeup. Nothing that we don't know, but they're not discounting anything right now.

"......The 00z ECMWF is still drier and further south, partly due to
a stronger blocking pattern and a stronger surface high in SE
Canada. For now, we kept chances of rain in the 20-40 percent range
from late Sun through Mon, with highest chances in the south along
the SC border. Precip types could be an issue if the cold NE flow
develops with the offshore low, but given the model spread, kept it
all liquid for now."
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like the last several February’s that I keep hearing about right ? No not even close View attachment 144344
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Expected change is moving up in time and within range of the ensembles now. Really hope we can get a period of a tall Alaskan ridge, highs coming down to meet an active stj undercutting the ridge like that. ? Be real!
 
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