NAM 12k has the 700-850 levels significantly colder than the NAM 3k in N AL. Can anyone shed light on which one is more reliable and why at this range?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
Yes, most tv mets I've seen often go with the globals, especially the Euro and GFS for whatever reason. That's fine when 4+ days out but inside 2-3 days the meso models are usually better, especially with a warm nose. I remember years ago when the NAM was firing warning shots about a warm nose, globals didn't have it and NWS offices were forecasting large snow amounts for RDU to Greenville based on global output. It turned out the 3km NAM had the correct idea and the warm nose pushed all the way to the 85 corridor similar to what it modeled.
snowlover91
Member
Always go with 3km for a warm nose, in the years I've followed weather it usually handles them the best.
Do you think rates will be too light for Raleigh so that it primarily ends up as a light rain event despite snow falling farther southeast?
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The RGEM is noticeably drier than the NAM at 48 hours (especially in TN). This, plus the ICON gives me pause at the moment.
The NWS has goofed for the last two small events in terms of Ptype. It has snowed with temps in the upper 30s and bottomed out down to 32 both times. I feel like they will miss the boat again. With that said, I don’t know how far the warm nose will make it up i77 but 99% of time it’s as far north as Iredell County NC which is a long county. Maybe the mix will stay near Mooresville but nothing really stopping it if precip rates bounce off and on. It will be a race to 1-3” for many IMO.
ATLwxfan
Member
Probably running out of time for I-20 folks for this one. Probably a sharp gradient in extreme north GA and a nice event for the mountains.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
MichaelJ
Member
Next 2 NAM runs will be critical and I think it is possible it will start correcting more towards the EURO. Problem for the SC, Ga, and ENC people will end up being temps and P-Type and for Northern NC and SVa will be moisture. As for the ICON, it has generally been a very poor model
Storm5
Member
I-20 never had much of a chance . If you want to see snow out of this system you will need to head north
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
One thing that could help out southeast portions of Charlotte metro (SE Mecklenburg and Union Counties) is the development of the coastal low can erode the warm nose quicker as winds aloft turn. Those portions of the metro have gotten in on the developing deform band a number of times with the 2010 Christmas storm being a good example
I gave it a try here's my first call map
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Even though the GFS and Canadian have been trending towards the NAM?
This will certainly be 85 north at this point. That’s just as far as delayed cold can make it with precip streaming through the area. The topography won’t allow it to build any further south until the bulk of precip has moved off to the east. It’s only about 105’ elevation difference between Downtown Greenville and areas in southern Greenville county. But man does it matter
packfan98
Moderator
Through hr 54, the GFS seems a little more amped up.
ajr
Member
I remember that with the Jan 6-7, 2017 storm:
Preceding forecast discussion with 5-7 inches (when we ended up getting more like 1-2): https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDRAH&e=201701060342
North Carolina Climate Blog - North Carolina State Climate Office
Subscribe to the Climate Blog Baby, it’s Hot Outside. New Toolkit to Help Reduce Heat-Related Health ProblemsJune 18, 2024 the North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency (NCORR) has issued a heat action plan toolkit for local governments to help their citizens avoid heat-related injury...
climate.ncsu.edu
snowlover91
Member
Much more qpf on the GFS, only 54 hours out on this panel btw.
GFS definitely isn't correcting to the EURO, at least not yet.
Downeastnc
Member
The 12Z GFS run is gonna end up close to the NAM with snow totals in eastern NC
snowlover91
Member
Plenty of qpf on the GFS.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Local mets seem to be totally disregarding any other model and going with the Euro, even though the NAM has stayed consistent, and other models have trended to it.