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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

3km looks very similar to 12km at long range. I find usually outside 48 hrs the 3km can be too dry at times.

That is further credit to the 12km solution. We may have something here...

Onset for me here in Eastern TN is in 48 hrs. with virga falling even before that.
 
Looks like the NAM actually increased totals for NC this run. Euro might be out to lunch.
 
3K does not have quite as stout of a warm nose in the upstate. I think we can crash the column pretty quick with how cold it is at almost all levels and the warm nose might be 33 degrees at most. Even then both the NAM and 3K have 2-4 inches along and north of 85 which I think is smart.
 
nam has a warm nose from hr 50-60 for clt while much of the precip moves through, and it even gets stronger from hr 54 or so on. this looks to be a sleet storm most likely for charlotte with token flakes on the back end. nam showing a warm nose like this and you can take it to the bank.
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The earlier arrival on the NAM means much better accumulation opportunities. Had been showing up at 1 or 2 pm. now 7-10 am.
 
This is my percentages for overall winter weather and snowfall taking place across the board. I included a separate upstate map for overall precip types since we have a few upstate folks that are wondering what to expect around this way. We really need to watch that warm nose. If its not quite as stout then i=I think we can crash the column pretty quickly and get more snow in here. As always i really see along and north of 85 being the sweet spot for our area. I really think from GSO over to the Triad and down I95 towards Fayetteville will do great but those lower areas really need to watch from that warm nose as well.
 

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Wondering who will be the 1st to issue a Winter Sorm watch for MBY/Triad Wilkesboro or Raleigh NWS.

12z Nam snows for almost 15 hours in Triad down to Asheboro.

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iGRXY said:
3K does not have quite as stout of a warm nose in the upstate. I think we can crash the column pretty quick with how cold it is at almost all levels and the warm nose might be 33 degrees at most. Even then both the NAM and 3K have 2-4 inches along and north of 85 which I think is smart.
Click to expand...
How? I see 1-2 at best for northern Greenville and Spartanburg based on Kuchera
 
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