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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
Here's my final call map for this event. Based on this morning's CAM trends and lower than forecasted dew points, I lowered totals for the Triad & far western piedmont, however they increased in the coastal plain.

I expect a respectable band of >6" of snow to setup just east of Raleigh from roughly Wilson to Elizabeth City. Isolated amounts could certainly approach/exceed 8-10"


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As an important addendum to this snow map, it's also worth mentioning where the greatest forecast uncertainty and largest spread in realistic outcomes exists with this storm. Imo, the area where the forecast is the most tenuous is southeast of the Triangle area generally along a line from Fayetteville to Greenville. It's in this area where the heaviest rates and total amount of precipitation overlap the most uncertainty in precipitation type. The proverbial ceiling and floor are much further apart in these areas vs other portions of central-eastern NC.


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Sleet in Easley I just don’t think we even see a inch dew point is 39


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Webberweather53 said:
As an important addendum to this snow map, it's also worth mentioning where the greatest forecast uncertainty and largest spread in realistic outcomes exists with this storm. Imo, the area where the forecast is the most tenuous is southeast of the Triangle area generally along a line from Fayetteville to Greenville. It's in this area where the heaviest rates and total amount of precipitation overlap the most uncertainty in precipitation type. The proverbial ceiling and floor are much further apart in these areas vs other portions of central-eastern NC.


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Yeah the proverbial gotta smell the rain zone....could be 4-6" could be 8-12", I am just hoping for several hrs of heavy snow with the winds pushing the low 30's and hopefully the surface temp down to 30-32.
 
Good god, this HRRR run has 35-40 dBz snow over much of the piedmont & coastal plain in 6-7 hours, I know a lot of that is melting related but still, it's probably going to be ripping fatties in a lot of backyards shortly.

Also, the rain-snow line is creeping closer to Columbia, SC on each successive HRRR run. ?

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Roxboro - Henderson should be flipping in the next hour as that band moves east, several reports of SN in Danville - South Boston associated with it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good god, this HRRR run has 35-40 dBz snow over much of the piedmont & coastal plain in 6-7 hours, I know a lot of that is melting related but still, it's probably going to be ripping fatties in a lot of backyards shortly.

Also, the rain-snow line is creeping closer to Columbia, SC on each successive HRRR run. ?

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Something to consider. Night time, heavy, wet snow. Drier air drills in. Could be very interesting black ice situation later tonite/Fri am.
 
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