Broken024
Member
Yea hopefully nam is just over amping this a bit
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
I think the precip shield of the NAM is accurate but probably overdone on amounts.
Tomorrow night NAM will have that running roughly from clt to rdu.
Nerman
Member
It's about a lot of things. I think Charlotte will be fine with the rates being shown.
MichaelJ
Member
I don't think this will come too much further North due to the location of the 1035 high over southern Ohio
Shaggy
Member
The nam has been focusing that maximum within 30 to 40 miles of me now for a day or so. Just got to watch that warm nose on future runs.
iGRXY
Member
Kuchera almost always goes TOO low for totals. 10:1 is always too high since it does not separate P-Types. 2-4" seems reasonable right now.
I know its the simulated radar and a bit overdone but I feel like this will be closer to reality because temps will likely end up being colder than expected and I think rates would cool the column pretty quickly after onset. I don't think the rates would be to the extent of this sim. radar but I think they would be pretty close.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Warm advection... everywhere.
I think some of the globals, especially Euro, are going to fall flat on their faces here.
I think some of the globals, especially Euro, are going to fall flat on their faces here.
iGRXY
Member
This is absolutely what I see. the warm nose is 33-34 degrees and it is well below freezing above and below that except for the surface. Heavier rates and CAD will collapse the column.
Cadi40
Member
Would this Warm Advection affect Charlotte’s totals?
packfan98
Moderator
Brad P's latest thoughts....
Broken024
Member
Icon moved the precip south
mainly pingers for charlotte, not surprised. hope we get some backend flakes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ICON ticked south on this run. I definitely think the best chance for snow in general is probably SE of Raleigh even if this ends up way NW in the end
if the nam is right with frontogenesis/WAA, then those amounts are possible
Nerman
Member
This shows the Zero C 850 line set up in NC and parts of upstate SC before the precip moves in. For areas West (GA, AL, MS) it is still arriving about 12 hours too late. That has been the theme for this one.
ajr
Member
Move this elsewhere if not thread appropriate, but broadly why do you think mets aren't focusing as much on this (and holding onto globals)?
12z ICON ticked a little SE. Good hit for SE NC, I think. Very little precip up towards RDU.
Is this model even any good, BTW? I don't know what its verification scores are.
Is this model even any good, BTW? I don't know what its verification scores are.
Yeap need that high and the artic press to move in a little sooner across the SE but walking a thin line of suppression there...truthful wouldn't need to play complete catch-up just 6-8 hours earlier will improve totals across the board