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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

ajr said:
I remember that with the Jan 6-7, 2017 storm:
Preceding forecast discussion with 5-7 inches (when we ended up getting more like 1-2): https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDRAH&e=201701060342

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Yes, that storm was a good example. I think February 2014 and January 2018 were good examples of this, as well.
 
Poimen said:
You can tell the GFS is not depicting the same amount of overrunning over the NW piedmont as the NAM is seeing, thus the much lighter totals west of HWY 1. @Webberweather53 I hope you're right about the NAM!
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If things are working like they should with long range and short range models, it should be right. Long range picks up on the idea of a system, and then as we get closer it hands off to the short range to figure out the fine details. People say all the time how the NAM is great and picking up on the warm nose when the globals don't show it. I think we should have just as much faith in it when it shows a good storm, too.
 
Storm5 said:
I-20 never had much of a chance . If you want to see snow out of this system you will need to head north


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Yeah.....I hoped against hope reality was staring us in face whole time though. Good luck to those further north.
 
Bit unusual to see a state wide hard freeze after a snow event. 1-3” could lead to travel issues for 2 to 3 days with refreezing issues. Friday morning looks chilly. I assume lots of winter weather advisories post storm for NC, upstate SC and north Georgia.
 
That NW trend on the NAM and Goofy is concerning though. I'd like to hit the brakes on that sleet and cold rain would be a slap in the face imo.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
As much as I want to believe it, take the weather nerds sim radar with a block of salt. Unless you enjoy being burnt. I’ve seen it show a CAD hanging on down into south GA before...
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I'm sure its overdone down that way. It does appear the soundings do support snow in the upstate instead of rain. But I believe the nam with a slight warm nose here to overcome. So sleet to snow favored imo for us.
 
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