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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Wow at CMC temps. Single digits in the mtns. Low teens for most in NC post storm. Mega cold board wide.
 
UK precip--still a no go. So in reality its the American models against the world. That almost never works out.

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CL-east out towards eastern NC looks better, no cap, that solid band of snow on the backside is showing itself 1582044516161.png
 
So a little more model comparison 12k NAM vs. WRF-ARW at 12z Thursday much more colder CAD signature and overall temps in the 850s in the WRF we shall see precipitation is a little more suppressed it seems but still should see in to SC/NC

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HRW-WRF SSL similar to NAM with cold press and Moisture being further north but parts of GA and AL above I-20 are 4-5 degrees colder on the SSL compared to NAM
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
geez can we just have agreement, this is starting to become a forecasting nightmare, lol
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Perhaps the silver lining is that, according to my recollection, it's never easy reeling in one of these. There are always model wars and back and forth right up to go time. It may be magnified in this situation because of the bleak winter (pretty much back-to-back winters) so far. Who knows, maybe the NAM is on to something and maybe the EC will come in and save the day.
 
i wonder if something as simple as a feb 11 2014 repeat is possible, that's kinda in between the NAM/GFS/EURO/UK and ensembles, just a bit warmer, maybe just a little more amped than that setup
 
Looking at radar trends with system moving through SC and GA now it’s pretty suppressed in my opinion.??‍♂️ Is this a sign of things to remain suppressed?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
CL-east out towards eastern NC looks better, no cap, that solid band of snow on the backside is showing itself View attachment 35217
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Seems most models are targeting the coastal plains pretty well the last 2 days with a band of of much heavier totals. That area is west of me on the CMC and just south or over me on the nam/gfs and then the euro just has me concerned all around.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
We have to start looking at short range guidance rather than globals ... I mean we do remember the fact that the euro never saw the last storm until after the snow was falling? And the NAM had the storm from hour 84..
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this is quite true, its under 60 hours on the NAM, where it starts taking control
 
We know the NAM overdoes precip on the reg. The GFS seems reasonable, but I'm still uncomfortable until I see the Euro and UK join the party. If they continue to hold out, then we're definitely going to have a problem. Good to see the UK trend northward from yesterday. So, there's still time.
 
And we cannot be the forum of every singular model runs .. if tonight’s models continue the trend of “suppression” then okay we will have two days for the NW trend to become evident again ... I don’t think anyone in NC should be freaking out .. and as long as the NAM holds true I’m confident in that
 
Rain Cold said:
We know the NAM overdoes precip on the reg. The GFS seems reasonable, but I'm still uncomfortable until I see the Euro and UK join the party. If they continue to hold out, then we're definitely going to have a problem. Good to see the UK trend northward from yesterday. So, there's still time.
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ever since the upgrade, the NAM has actually been pretty good with precip, in fact lower at times, its just its H5 amp bias that can show up at times, which can makes things look juicy
 
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