Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[MichaelJ]

That's the first time I've heard this. Is there a source for this?

Maybe what I should have said is they use similar data but use different equations to assimilate the data which is why the 12K or 3K NAM catches on quicker (but not as far out in time in hours) but they tend to narrow the difference as the event gets closer.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

while this model ain't the best, it looks similar to the NAM

 

[MichaelJ]

It does seem like at least a small part of the board will have some accumulating snow, most likely extreme ENC

 

[Snowflowxxl]

while this model ain't the best, it looks similar to the NAM
View attachment 35233

That model has a very significant cold bias. I’m not sure about any moisture bias with it though

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I found the model i’m hugging. HREF mean at the end of the run. Upstate special

 

[Webberweather53]

Starting to get into range of some of the higher res CAMs. Here’s the RAP, looks very nam-esque

 

[iGRXY]

Starting to get into range of some of the higher res CAMs. Here’s the RAP, looks very nam-esque

View attachment 35235

The RAP is also warm biased as well is it not? Temperatures are around 36-39 degrees at 12z Thursday which is also very interesting.

 

[Cadi40]

If we can avoid the inevitable warm nose I’m confident the precip will follow along the NC/SC line.

 

[packfan98]

Starting to get into range of some of the higher res CAMs. Here’s the RAP, looks very nam-esque

View attachment 35235

So are there huge differences in the 5H setup between the NAM and Euro and the NAM is picking up on the frontogenesis resulting in more dynamic precip further north?

 

[superjames1992]

I'm not sure why some people are down on the 12z GGEM in the eastern half of NC. That was a good hit. Easily warning criteria, big hit for RDU. Not as good for CLT-GSO, though.

 

[NCSNOW]

Far out as it goes: Latest Run

 

[WxBlue]

I'm not sure why some people are down on the 12z GGEM in the eastern half of NC. That was a good hit. Easily warning criteria, big hit for RDU. Not as good for CLT-GSO, though.

Yep, that was a nice CCB whip. Don't underestimate how much snow CCB can put down as the coastal ejects out of the region. It's usually good for extra few inches of snow.

 

[SnowNiner]

Catching up, I'm coming to the conclusion that I don't buy the nam. Euro, Ukmet, RGEM are great models and are not on board. I think what the models overall are showing is that eastern NC gets a good snow hit out of the coastal after the energy hits the ocean and the low forms. I think the overrunning for western nc is going to be suppressed and won't amount to much. That's my current thought process.

If the RGEM comes on board then the nam would be more reasonable. But it being by itself on the full nc hit is just too much for me to believe at this point. Eastern NC seems like the best place to be. Euro/Ukmet not showing ANYTHING for mby, it's just tough for me to believe they're going to wiff on this one.

 

[packfan98]

12z Euro looks a little more amped than 0z.

 

[Webberweather53]

Precip is further north on this afternoon's 12z Euro


0z




12z

 

[Deleted member 1449]

blah--

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Welp..that’s a coastal transfer if I’ve ever seen one ??‍

 

[ajr]

So are there huge differences in the 5H setup between the NAM and Euro and the NAM is picking up on the frontogenesis resulting in more dynamic precip further north?

I wish I had a figure with more models, but most recent available comparison (00z) from meteocentre is below:

 

[Webberweather53]

Be very weary of the Euro & EPS precip type output & snowfall. There's a spurious dry layer in the low-levels although it's not as pronounced on today's run, but if it's actually legitimately precipitating (temp follows blue line on sounding) it would be snow.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Short range guidance over globales right now ... we can’t confidently use globales at this juncture