• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

KyloG said:
I know this has been touched on...but this was the 0z EPS about 36 hours out from last weeks deal...I believe parts of N-GA received 6" of snow. Though, I suppose this setup is different.

Didn't go back and look at which model was most right 48-60 hours out...would be curious.

View attachment 35249View attachment 35250
Click to expand...

Definitely some key differences between this event and the one earlier this month in GA (WAA was more localized in DGZ made the bust even worse), but it was also an overrunning event that overperformed vs basically every other model. We'll see
 
packfan98 said:
If the new Euro is on the south end of the EPS for this 12z suite, there is still reason to be optimistic. I'm guessing by this time tomorrow the American models and Euro will meet in the middle and there will be a large area of at least .2" qpf. Obviously the eastern part of NC has the best look. When I look at the precip on the GFS with 48 hours to go and the way it's been trending, I have a hard time thinking it's going to look completely different than what it's showing currently.
qpf_024h.us_ma.png
Click to expand...

Definitely a good point here, it would be very strange to see the GFS tick SE and more suppressed inside 48 hours. Personally don't recall too many cases where this occurred.
 
Storm5 said:
I’ve been burned too many times by the NAM . I m not a believer it has a wheelhouse . The only thing I’ve seen it hit on before consistently are the thermals


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Again, Webber posted before how the NAM has been more accurate since the summer with precip amounts compared to the Euro. We have been so wet the past few months, too. I am not going to doubt that won't continue until we actually see the wet pattern break.
 
Right now I still say you take a 75% to 25% blend of the NAM and GFS to Euro solution which will likely help more people. You keep a good amount of precip and also lower the warm nose. Granted the warm nose is only about a 1/2 degree to a degree currently on the NAM through the upstate and East but that would probably take it away.
 
Here's another site everyone (should) use for this storm wrt high resolution CAMs.

This site has Fv3 NSSL, WRF NSSL, HRRR, & NSSL 3km.
https://cams.nssl.noaa.gov/?model=fv3_nssl&product=cref_uh075&sector=spc_conus&postage_stamp=false

Also recommend the SPC's site on the HREF (which is intended to replace the outdated SREF guidance)
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/


Most of the convective allowing models (CAMs) (including the NSSL, ARW, NMMB cores plus the RAP) out to 48 hours are considerably more amped w/ the overrunning precip than the globals and are more in line w/ what the 3km & 12km NAM is showing. I know many of you want the RGEM to come on board, but there's definitely some legitimate support for the NAM at least wrt CAMs.

cref_ps.se.f04800.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Clunky site but I get it from NOAA ESRL: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Click to expand...

Interesting look with the RAP model it appears the Precipitation is definitely more SW/NE oriented and slower at 18z compared to NAM and its just getting going in SC/NC and precip spreading all the way back into AL. I would also note the surface temps are mid-30s down to I-20 with little sign of warm nose and 850s are below freezing thru GA.
 
Poimen said:
I had no idea the RAP went out that far. I think I know the answer, but what is its skill at this range?
Click to expand...
I don't have the numbers, but you just KNOW that it's probably very low skill way out there. I'd think under 8-12 hours is probably its useful range. It's probably best to just scroll past the 48hr RAP at this point, especially if we say the RGEM isn't really good at that range.
 
GSP starting to introduce it


Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
723 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
191230-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
723 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, the mountains, foothills, and northwest Piedmont of
western North Carolina, and the mountains of Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Snow is possible on Thursday, perhaps mixing with rain at times.
Light snow accumulations will be possible, especially at the higher
elevations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.
 
Oh jeez... the fact it's NAM/GFS/RAP vs. Euro/UKMet/RGEM (with CMC being a compromise) just made this forecast a very tough one. I chose to go conservative and just do percentage of at least one inch of snow for my next forecast map for family and friends. I just can't go 100% against Euro/UKMet/RGEM... not when they're sitting together with a proven track record yet. Ughhhhh.

I'll welcome any feedback on this map, which is not too different from yesterday's map.

secondcall_southernwx.jpg
 
Should be noted my map is a bit more aggressive than WPC... but not by much. WPC forecasters are pro at what they do and I wouldn't dare to drift too far apart from them.
 
WxBlue said:
Should be noted my map is a bit more aggressive than WPC... but not by much. WPC forecasters are pro at what they do and I wouldn't dare to drift too far apart from them.
Click to expand...

I think from Greenville to Hickory to Greensboro you should add another shade of 90% chance. Just my opinion but this looks way underdone.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top