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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
Precip is further north on this afternoon's 12z Euro


0z

View attachment 35239


12z

View attachment 35240
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I have a hard time agreeing with the Euro, could be wrong in the end but it showed pretty much what the NAM was showing a week ago, then it backed off, then back again with a storm. Apparently it's trying to catch up on the northern extent of the moisture. Inconsistent IMO

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Nick_boynton_ said:
Short range guidance over globales right now ... we can’t confidently use globales at this juncture
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The problem is, the only short range guidance showing a storm is from the NAM camp. Aside from the GFS/NAVGEM, there is no other support.
 
Is it possible that RDU could get a very light rain while southeastern NC gets snow because rates farther north would be too light to cool the column for snow to fall?
 
Miss the old EE take it to the bank . 60 hrs out it would send a tingle up ones leg to see the nam and euro bulls eyeing your back yard.

Im riding the ole red white and blue models to glory. Its never worked before verse the foreign, but what have I got to lose lol. The new and improved upgraded Nam is gonna hit one over the fence , just like a few days ago in north GA.
 
SnowNiner said:
Either the EURO is anything but the "King" anymore, OR, the NAM is still the NAM. The Euro is completely the opposite of the NAM 2 days from the event. Who you got?
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Euro, Ukie, CMC, Icon...precip is going to be a problem in the interior Carolinas..NC mountains with a quick 2-4” hit of snow then the interior Carolinas get slotted before the coastal forms and hits the eastern 1/4th of NC with accumulating snow
 
Poimen said:
The problem is, the only short range guidance showing a storm is from the NAM camp. Aside from the GFS/NAVGEM, there is no other support.
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Theres a few short range models that have been posted in this thread that look very similar to the NAM. The euro hasn’t been good with either light events this year and we are in the NAMs wheelhouse now.
 
If the new Euro is on the south end of the EPS for this 12z suite, there is still reason to be optimistic. I'm guessing by this time tomorrow the American models and Euro will meet in the middle and there will be a large area of at least .2" qpf. Obviously the eastern part of NC has the best look. When I look at the precip on the GFS with 48 hours to go and the way it's been trending, I have a hard time thinking it's going to look completely different than what it's showing currently.
qpf_024h.us_ma.png
 
iGrey_X said:
Theres a few short range models that have been posted in this thread that look very similar to the NAM. The euro hasn’t been good with either light events this year and we are in the NAMs wheelhouse now.
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I’ve been burned too many times by the NAM . I m not a believer it has a wheelhouse . The only thing I’ve seen it hit on before consistently are the thermals


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I know this has been touched on...but this was the 0z EPS about 36 hours out from last weeks deal...I believe parts of N-GA received 6" of snow. Though, I suppose this setup is different.

Didn't go back and look at which model was most right 48-60 hours out...would be curious.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-1271200.pngEQXbABZWAAUlIKz.jpg
 
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