Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[GaSnowhound]

Interesting look with the RAP model it appears the Precipitation is definitely more SW/NE oriented and slower at 18z compared to NAM and its just getting going in SC/NC and precip spreading all the way back into AL. I would also note the surface temps are mid-30s down to I-20 with little sign of warm nose and 850s are below freezing thru GA.

Is the RAP even a reliable tool at this distance?

 

[tramadoc]

Oh jeez... the fact it's NAM/GFS/RAP vs. Euro/UKMet/RGEM (with CMC being a compromise) just made this forecast a very tough one. I chose to go conservative and just do percentage of at least one inch of snow for my next forecast map for family and friends. I just can't go 100% against Euro/UKMet/RGEM... not when they're sitting together with a proven track record yet. Ughhhhh.

I'll welcome any feedback on this map, which is not too different from yesterday's map.

View attachment 35262

I think your light blue should be over the Albemarle Sound northward. I don’t think we see enough QPF to make it to an inch of snowfall. Just from the way the models are trending SE with the bulk of moisture.

 

[Ethan80963]

12z EPS

 

[Webberweather53]

EPS has ticked drier across NC & upstate SC but the primary axis of precip south of the I-20 corridor in LA, MS, AL, GA, & the lowlands of SC lifted slightly north.

 

[accu35]

EPS has ticked drier across NC & upstate SC but the primary axis of precip south of the I-20 corridor in LA, MS, AL, GA, & the lowlands of SC lifted slightly north.



View attachment 35271

Is there any chance that central Bama could see at least a back side snow if we can get the primary axis to move further south?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We need another happy hour 18z NAM to keep spirits alive in here ... I just don’t trust the euro with how it preformed last event .. yes situations are a bit different but similar problems apply and I think globales can’t see the forcing as well as short range guidance is

 

[Sctvman]

 

[Snownut]

This one is all about the short range, Globals in my opinion are gonna suck with this storm.

 

[CyclonicFury]

What is the verification for RPM? I remember it being spot on in January 2017.

 

[$alt]

12z EPS:



12z GEFS:



12z CMC Ens:


12z Icon:

 

[Nerman]

This was the Euro vs the Nam on the last system at about 48 hours out. Not only was the Euro way off but the NAM under-performed and intensified all the way to verification.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12z EPS
View attachment 35272

EPS sort of levels the playing field for everyone in the Carolinas between the mountains and coastal areas. I like where we’re at right now

 

[southernskimmer]

I know this has been asked before, but doesn't NAM account for topography? I know globals don't

 

[WxBlue]

I know this has been asked before, but doesn't NAM account for topography? I know globals don't

They all account for topography, but NAM has the best resolution on it vs. globals simply because it's operating at a smaller resolution.

 

[FamouslyHot]

18z NAM running now

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Can’t tell much difference so far through 23 hours on 18Z NAM. Northern energy may be a touch stronger.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Apparently models are initializing the high too high. It's at 1040 right now. The GFS has it at 1044.

 

[Stormdoc]

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I believe the big difference between the Euro and other models showing snow is still quite small at this point. There may only be 1-2 radial degree difference between how the trough is oriented to get good WSW flow. That 1500 miles between where that angle is set and to where it opens up downstream becomes exponential.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s worth noting that the strong subtropical ridge keeps trending stronger

 

[Chandler]

Doesn't look like there will be any major shift towards the Euro..