This is not a reflection of what scenario I’m pulling for or what I think will happen but here’s something to keep in mind; not one EPS member looks anything like the NAM.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Ron Burgundy
Member
Shawn noted one trying to pop on last night’s 00z Euro. Interesting trends.
Ice always seems to find a way to sneak into our storms ?
Looks a few hours slower than 12z, as well.
Shaggy
Member
Soundings here now indicating sleet and snow versus the 12z all snow soundings.
just an insane difference inside 48hrs between the euro and nam, ridiculous. remember the EE rule in the old days?
NAM is bringing some backside snow to North GA.
Storm5
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Slightly stronger low pressure looks to result in more moisture in the NW regions.
The 18z NAM looks like it's setting up to bury RDU. S/E looks mixy.
ajr
Member
Sorry to interrupt the NAM fest, but this figure makes me think the globals have general agreement and the devil is now in the meso-level details (as others have already discussed):
warm nose for clt less evident at hr 50 vs 12z, good news. lets see how it develops as the precip moves thru.
wow, on 3km nam charlotte gets rid of the warm nose after hr48 and then we have an all snow sounding if sfc temps cooperate. interesting...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NAM dumps nearly 18" on the US 264 corridor between Raleigh & Greenville. Basically everyone in central-eastern NC has at least 6" in their backyards.
packfan98
Moderator
Kuchera!
Downeastnc
Member
The soundings are all snow for the most part though maybe some sleet the first hr mixed in but this is 98% all snow for PGV....this is the sounding right when it starts....not worried...
iGRXY
Member
The temperature profiles on the 3k NAM vs 12K is ever so slight that makes this really interesting. The 12K has a warm nose of a degree or so that causes it to start as sleet for 2-4 hours and the 3K has the warm nose basically not there. The 12K still has a good swath of 2-5 inches with the sleet. The 3K around 1-4 inches. The good thing is the 3K is better at temp profiles so we could be looking at a bigger dog in the upstate up I85 to Charlotte.
Here’s the thing about frontogenic bands, they normally arrive earlier than forecasted, they normally have intense rates, when it moves in, snow immediately becomes heavy, not light snow for some time to heavy, it becomes heavy quick, and also areas outside the intense frontogenesis can get a nice ol minumum