Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It may not be trash but it sure is in the recycling bin. Been terrible here the past 12 months.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Snownut
Member
The NAM sure beat it out on last two storms. Overrunning storms the NAM is much better
I just remember that storm everyone was saying in Central NC how much they wished the Euro was on board. Even when we see the transfer to the coastal, coastal storms always seem to have a more expansive precipitation shield on the west side. That’s why I wouldn’t dismiss the Hwy 74 corridor from Union County east to get in on the deform band for at least a time
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The European model and its ensemble suite (EPS) are properly tuned & dispersed for the medium range only, inside 36-48 hours I wouldn't put anywhere as much stock in global NWP models vs CAMs especially when your precipitation is being driven by subgrid-scale processes on the spatiotemporal scale of a coarse gridded global model.
I was gonna say near Mobile/Pensacola.
The Euro is king beyond day 3. One we get into the short-range, mesoscale modeling typically trumps the Euro.
Edit: What Webb said
Edit: What Webb said
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
And I’m sure that is in the US as a whole (maybe even world wide?). But it comes down to what have you done for me lately?
That 18z NAM throws a slight bone to parts of N.AL and even down to N. Metro ATL but got to hope for continued slow-down if it slows down another 3-4 hours we could see overall better results across those parts...well either that are a more robust back-end precip field which would be a major win for all
Where are you exactly? Wilson?
WxBlue
Meteorologist
That's a fair assessment.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
They don't call it the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for nothing.
I’m simply talking to Webb’s point on its recent performance with winter storms and winter weather set ups .. the NAM is not alone almost all other CAMS show the similar set up the NAM is showing ... I believe the euro is a bit on its own right now .. as it usually has been “dude”
Shaggy
Member
Greenville
WxBlue
Meteorologist
That's a fair point, but I do think we need to be careful hugging the NAM.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Is it trash in general? No, but in a particular subset of cases, yes it definitely can be.
There is no way on earth I see this happening. I mean the ECMWF says noooo....
I got a nice 6” out of that one. I’m hoping for that again, but I’d take 2-3”.
To me the Euro is like all models and is a tool, not a forecast. It has its known biases that forecasters have to know to be able to use it effectively. The one question I always have in these situations when models are not agreement is if it was the Euro showing the big storm right now and the NAM not, would forecasters still lean on the Euro when making out there forecasts?
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Right now, at this range, it's a safe call to go with a blend of globals and CAMs until we get more data from short-range models. NAM is by itself with high amounts across the region... no matter how much people want to hug it. I really think what GFS/CMC have is a good idea of how things are gonna go at this moment.