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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

I don't know how you can discount the NAM, though. It has been consistent, and in fact just increased the totals. it is supposed to be better in the short range. We are 36 hours out from this unfolding and it is not backing down at all.
 
Sorry if it was posted earlier...but which nailed the current rain event in the Carolinas? Short Range/Cam or Globals (EURO) (Understand that every scenario is different, but trends I stick with)
 
WxBlue said:
And that's fine to lean on NAM. I am not discounting it or other CAMs as they absolutely handle mesoscale features better. I agree that globals are not handling isentropic upglide well at all, but it's still making me anxious to see historically strong suite like Euro/UKMet/EPS so far apart from NAM/GFS. Even the latest RGEM is a bit south toward Euro/UKMet/EPS, which is enough to give me a pause in my experience with northern storms last few winters. I've seen NAM shoot high many times and bust by few inches too high. This is one of these storms a compromise between globals and CAMs is the best way to go with 48 hours left.
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That's totally fair to think about it that way, I know many mets at local NWS WFOs hold this sentiment too. I certainly am not terribly nervous (yet), I'll feel pretty confident in the NAM/GFS camp if they hold serve thru 0z & the RGEM ticks north (again).
 
SimeonNC said:
Feel free to delete this or move it if it doesn't belong in this thread but not too long ago on Spectrum News, Matthew East said he was leaning towards the NAM more than the Euro. I think his probability map was already shared on this thread.
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Saw this in another thread from Meteorologist Hunter Ward but I thought for a novice like myself, that it was interesting and very insightful:

In these type of fast flows I tend to favor gridded models(NAM & GFS) over spectral(Euro) simply because they are better suited to handle the multiple back to back pieces of energy. A spectral model like the Euro divides the atmosphere up into 28 waves across the globe. Having two waves back to back like we are seeing is certainly giving the Euro trouble. It struggled with the last event where there was trailing overrunning precip. It has shown to me a tendency to struggle in these fast flows. The nam with those smaller grid points is better suited to resolve those little details, especially when several vorts are heading our way. We will see at 12z, I am pretty excited to watch model progression today to be honest.
 
gfs still looks like it has plenty of precip at hr 45, lets see how she goes from here.
 
Just pinged a TV MET amigo to get his pulse/feel on the NAM..and he gave me this GIF....we all know that even the MET's have their go to. Some are bound by the stations .ms-YhMEb8.gif
 
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