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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

tramadoc said:
There is no way on earth I see this happening. I mean the ECMWF says noooo....
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yesterday you can say that and have a solid argument. Today not so much.

We have high-res mesoscale models CREATED for setups like this showing significant accumulations. This storm is literally "the perfect storm" for globals to miss. Weak vort energy with a weak LP... that's going to be hard for any global to grasp.

If the 00z set of mesoscale models hold and lock in then I think we have to toss globals. Its almost time to do that anyway
 
WxBlue said:
That's a fair point, but I do think we need to be careful hugging the NAM.
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The reason I'm leaning (not hugging) on the NAM/GFS vs the ECMWF has been outlined on here several times. The NAM has actually had considerable internal run-run consistency (this is like the 5th run in a row w/ a big storm in NC, the Euro & really the EPS even more so has varied more considerably on successive 0z/12z runs), what's actually forcing the ascent/precip in this setup plays right into the hands of the CAMs and is extremely disadvantageous to global NWP models and historically is poorly misrepresented in NWP models in general, and the Euro has completely whiffed on both storms in NC this season while the NAM led the way (especially w/ the Feb 8 2020 storm). Also, virtually every other GFS-related CAM (RAP, NMMB, NSSL, & ARW cores) and the GFS operational generally support the NAM's idea of more intense/expansive precip in the SE US, so this isn't happening by chance (although these are some variation of the GFS in a general sense).

Sure, both the 3km & 12km NAM may very well be dead wrong in the end, but there's legitimate reasoning to believe it in this case even over the Euro, UKMET, & EPS. Not to mention, by this time Thursday, the event will be already well underway, so we're basically about 36 ish hours from it actually happening, you should be giving high res CAMs more credence by no later than the 0z runs tonight. It's somewhat fair to want another run or two of global NWP, but it won't do much good after tonight.
 
ICON looks like it is walking in tandem like the NAM. That is the another one on the side of the NAM now.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The reason I'm leaning (not hugging) on the NAM/GFS vs the ECMWF has been outlined on here several times. The NAM has actually had considerable internal run-run consistency (this is like the 5th run in a row w/ a big storm in NC, the Euro & really the EPS even more so has varied more considerably on successive 0z/12z runs), what's actually forcing the ascent/precip in this setup plays right into the hands of the CAMs and is extremely disadvantageous to global NWP models and historically is poorly misrepresented in NWP models in general, and the Euro has completely whiffed on both storms in NC this season while the NAM led the way (especially w/ the Feb 8 2020 storm). Also, virtually every other GFS-related CAM (RAP, NMMB, NSSL, & ARW cores) and the GFS operational generally support the NAM's idea of more intense/expansive precip in the SE US, so this isn't happening by chance (although these are some variation of the GFS in a general sense).

Sure, both the 3km & 12km NAM may very well be dead wrong in the end, but there's legitimate reasoning to believe it in this case even over the Euro, UKMET, & EPS. Not to mention, by this time Thursday, the event will be already well underway, so we're basically about 36 ish hours from it actually happening, you should be giving high res CAMs more credence by no later than the 0z runs tonight. It's somewhat fair to want another run or two of global NWP, but it won't do much good after tonight.
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And that's fine to lean on NAM. I am not discounting it or other CAMs as they absolutely handle mesoscale features better. I agree that globals are not handling isentropic upglide well at all, but it's still making me anxious to see historically strong suite like Euro/UKMet/EPS so far apart from NAM/GFS. Even the latest RGEM is a bit south toward Euro/UKMet/EPS, which is enough to give me a pause in my experience with northern storms last few winters. I've seen NAM shoot high many times and bust by few inches too high. This is one of these storms a compromise between globals and CAMs is the best way to go with 48 hours left.
 
Weather channel/underground used to have the RPM model. It's basically the WRF-ARW right (WSI branded)? So we have a source through wright-weather.. anywhere else?
 
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