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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

snku_acc.us_ma.png

Final total from NAM 3km.
 
iGRXY said:
The temperature profiles on the 3k NAM vs 12K is ever so slight that makes this really interesting. The 12K has a warm nose of a degree or so that causes it to start as sleet for 2-4 hours and the 3K has the warm nose basically not there. The 12K still has a good swath of 2-5 inches with the sleet. The 3K around 1-4 inches. The good thing is the 3K is better at temp profiles so we could be looking at a bigger dog in the upstate up I85 to Charlotte.
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yea, very encouraged to see the 3km back off a bit on the strength of the warm nose. hope to see that trend continue over the next 24hrs.
 
Stating the obvious here, we're approaching the general forecast lead time where you can't immediately ignore the NAM or any other CAMs for that matter even if they differ considerably from the globals. Very recent track record w/ winter storms this season and general experience/intuition wrt how CAMs (esp the NAM) are more equipped to handle overrunning precipitation driven by WAA & frontogenesis definitely makes me lean towards the GFS/NAM here even though the very long term track record of the EPS/Euro/UKMET is better. They're great medium range models but inside 36 hours (which is where we currently stand) you may want to reconsider & use them at your own risk.
 
My first call map. I am definitely higher on my amounts than some but I really do not think the Euro is correct. I am a little worried about the potential warm nose on the coast of ENC but that region could easily go up to 6-12" potentially. I think the upstate looks like 2-4" right now and south east around 2-5" towards Lancaster, Chesterfield and union county NC have a could potential to get high amounts but that warm nose scares me some there as well. I will update this again tomorrow or maybe tonight if something major changes.
 

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Webberweather53 said:
Stating the obvious here, we're approaching the general forecast lead time where you can't immediately ignore the NAM or any other CAMs for that matter even if they differ considerably from the globals.
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I know it’s not the same setup, but I can’t help but think about the 1/3/2018 storm that the Euro completely blew it. 24 hours before that storm it was showing nothing outside of the immediate coastal areas of the Carolinas while the NAM was bringing accumulations back Central NC. The NAM was right on that one
 
Chazwin said:
I know it’s not the same setup, but I can’t help but think about the 1/3/2018 storm that the Euro completely blew it. 24 hours before that storm it was showing nothing outside of the immediate coastal areas of the Carolinas while the NAM was bringing accumulations back Central NC. The NAM was right on that one
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I couldnt remember the model outputs on that one. Its nice to see that its trustworthiness has legs. Its proven itself even when its back is against the wall.
 
Chazwin said:
I know it’s not the same setup, but I can’t help but think about the 1/3/2018 storm that the Euro completely blew it. 24 hours before that storm it was showing nothing outside of the immediate coastal areas of the Carolinas while the NAM was bringing accumulations back Central NC. The NAM was right on that one
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The EPS completely blew the overrunning precipitation that entered the southern piedmont and southwestern coastal plain of NC, even the day before that event.

0z January 3 2018 EPS Mean snowfall Jan 3-4 2018 storm.png

January 3-4 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
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