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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
was i not supposed to go off the deep end yet?
Usually Surry/Wilkes (part 1 pink) share the miss on sketchy transfers. But the signal is there for a growing miss well to the south-west (part 2 purple). During extreme messy transfers you can start to see Raleigh west (part 3 blue) will begin to suffer too. I did not like that ICON run at all. 
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From what I’ve seen from overnight into this morning, it doesn’t look like far NE NC gets into this very much. Good luck to everyone else!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z RGEM is significantly south of the 12z NAM out to the end of its run (48 hr)
Still in a decent spot compared to most. But for now, south of Raleigh looks best seated to this party.
MichaelJ
Member
Yep and I would not be surprised to see the NAM follow. The GFS is correcting towards the NAM because it is run on the same basic data as the NAM but with a much lower resolution which often times takes a while to catch up with the NAM with it's poorer resolution for specific regional areas
which is a bit concerning, nams support each other in the short range but that's kinda it
LovingGulfLows
Member
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That's the first time I've heard this. Is there a source for this?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least we still have the NAVGEM... #desperate
at this point, its best to go with something in between the NAM/GFS the euro/UK, no model is gonna exactly get it right, it's best to get a blend with this amount of uncertainty
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely feeling a lot better about my idea to go to Fayetteville for this one, feeling really good about my chances here. Also helps I’m on the south side of town
Shaggy
Member
Yeah that's a red flag but at this point its time to grab on and ride the horse till the end. These are never easy to nail down and in one camp its a crush job the other hints at far less moisture.
It’s going to be close for us, that 12z nam scared the dickens outta me but I’m relieved to see not all models went for an over amped output.
And as long as you’re feeling good in FAY I’ll ride or die into the mud puddles!
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kinda feeling sketchy here in concord, if a transfer was to occur, id be screwed, at least i'm a bit east of CLT which helps in this setup, and i at least expect some overrunning precip
kinda feeling sketchy here in concord, if a transfer was to occur, id be screwed, at least i'm a bit east of CLT which helps in this setup, and i at least expect some overrunning precip
iGRXY
Member
One thing the NAM has going for it is we are in its wheelhouse and it really picks up on the Fgem especially in the 850 and 700mb. That is one reason why I believe it has a better fix. The Euro is normally the king but has been subpar here recently especially with the last two systems. A mixture of 75%/25% of NAM and GFS to EURO/UKIE is probably a good blend which really helps with the warm nose issues as well.
Downeastnc
Member
I think we are golden, this is a different kind of storm and the usual hangups wont be as big of a issue this time around I think.....the NAM/GFS big dogs may be over done but in the end the potential here is pretty huge for a pretty big significant event over the eastern half of NC.....just need the NAM to have this one right....I feel like 3-6" is totally doable at this point....the cold is strong and it should flip to all snow quickly, the rates should be impressive once it gets cranking as well. There should be a solid 6-8 hrs window of moderate to at times heavy snow if the NAM/GFS runs pan out, and there will be a few hrs of light snow either side of that as well.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah good choice. Areas in between Charlotte and Fayetteville are looking super suspect right now. That transfer might be a killer