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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Not sure whether to put the SREFs in the whamby thread or here but...
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At this point I feel pretty good that we can get a general 1-3" type event....anything over that frankly is butter. I think the upside to this is bigger than the downside, don't see any real chance this bust so bad I don't see at least a few inches of snow. I think the upper end of this is 8-12" in a few streaky bands somewhere over central eastern NC if the NAM is right and all the parts come together perfectly.....would also not be surprised at all to see some 3-6" totals over a decently large area....just need the NAM to have this right.
 
Frustrating Winter so far in parts of Alabama and West Georgia. We got skunked on last system that came thru while others seen solid snow totals just to east or north and this system going to skunk all of us except for northern counties just by a hair again unless we get colder temps to pull thru and that's gonna be razor thin once again
 
malak05 said:
Frustrating Winter so far in parts of Alabama and West Georgia. We got skunked on last system that came thru while others seen solid snow totals just to east or north and this system going to skunk all of us except for northern counties just by a hair again unless we get colder temps to pull thru and that's gonna be razor thin once again
Click to expand...
I feel ya brother. Full skunk mode here as well. ((40 mi east of Atl). We need a Jackson miss to Maine mauler to set this right!!!!
 
Morehead city NWS putting their eggs in the euro basket. Basically calling for an inch where the Nam has almost 10 to 12.


Today`s forecast leans toward the
ECMWF for a couple of reasons:

1.) The deterministic ECMWF and the EPS (Euro ensembles) are in
strong agreement, with the ECMWF being the most stable solution
the past few runs. The EPS probability of 1" of snow or greater
has been around 45-50% for the last few runs.

2.) The GFS ensembles average a bit lower than their
deterministic counterpart, and in fact are close to the ECMWF
and its members.

Have put snowfall accumulations in the grids, although even then
this is under the ECMWF solution due to expected warm surface
temperatures which should initially melt the snow (apart from
grassy surfaces and higher elevations) and the fact that coastal
winter storms like this generally feature SLRs well below 10:1.
For now, show generally under an inch for interior zones with
lower amounts towards the coast. It should be emphasized this
forecast is fluid and will be closely monitored, but at this
time it does not appear to be a high-impact event.
 
@Webberweather53 are there any close match analogs from previous storms in your winter storm database based on current guidance?

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Forevertothee said:
The NAM has shown more rain or sleet even for 85 N. I’m concerned the warm nose is going to be an issue.


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We really need to get rid of this thing, not just for N GA, but for yours as well. Unfortunately warm noses almost always happen. However in this case, the warm nose isn't building in through the event, it's fading out. It's how fast we can knock this thing out that matters over its presence, because it's there at the beginning.
 
Shaggy said:
Morehead city NWS putting their eggs in the euro basket. Basically calling for an inch where the Nam has almost 10 to 12.


Today`s forecast leans toward the
ECMWF for a couple of reasons:

1.) The deterministic ECMWF and the EPS (Euro ensembles) are in
strong agreement, with the ECMWF being the most stable solution
the past few runs. The EPS probability of 1" of snow or greater
has been around 45-50% for the last few runs.

2.) The GFS ensembles average a bit lower than their
deterministic counterpart, and in fact are close to the ECMWF
and its members.

Have put snowfall accumulations in the grids, although even then
this is under the ECMWF solution due to expected warm surface
temperatures which should initially melt the snow (apart from
grassy surfaces and higher elevations) and the fact that coastal
winter storms like this generally feature SLRs well below 10:1.
For now, show generally under an inch for interior zones with
lower amounts towards the coast. It should be emphasized this
forecast is fluid and will be closely monitored, but at this
time it does not appear to be a high-impact event.
Click to expand...

Which completely makes sense, and is the right call. In my opinion, if the NAM holds serve through today and tomorrow and other short-range models such as the RGEM supports such a solution(along with the Euro caving, if it does), then I think it will be considered more by NWS offices
 
NWS Huntsville is not impressed.
"Although not indicated in the current
grids, a brief period of sleet will be possible for most of the
forecast area at the onset of precipitation, based on thermal
profiles in the 20/09-12Z timeframe. However, as the rate of
hydrometeor production increases aloft, the low-level airmass will
modify to support very cold rain or perhaps a rain/snow mixture for
portions of northwest AL/southern TN."
 
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