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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

WWA for Gville and Sptbg Counties.
That's for highway 11 and north. 1-2 will probably fall there. A trace at best in the 2 big cities. If latest models are right Lancaster and Rock Hill get warning criteria snow while we get nothing. Just not our year in the GSP metro and southwest.
 
That's for highway 11 and north. 1-2 will probably fall there. A trace at best in the 2 big cities. If latest models are right Lancaster and Rock Hill get warning criteria snow while we get nothing. Just not our year in the GSP metro and southwest.
The WWA is literally for the entire co
Screen Shot 2020-02-20 at 11.31.16 AM.png
 
That's for highway 11 and north. 1-2 will probably fall there. A trace at best in the 2 big cities. If latest models are right Lancaster and Rock Hill get warning criteria snow while we get nothing. Just not our year in the GSP metro and southwest.
Well we got the WWA’s I thought we would get...certainly not encouraging where CC has that r/s line though. I don’t like what I’m seeing right now
 
Here's my final call map for this event. Based on this morning's CAM trends and lower than forecasted dew points, I lowered totals for the Triad & far western piedmont, however they increased in the coastal plain.

I expect a respectable band of >6" of snow to setup just east of Raleigh from roughly Wilson to Elizabeth City. Isolated amounts could certainly approach/exceed 8-10"


February 20-21 2020 NC Forecast Snowmap 3.png
 
Seeing several pictures from NW Alabama of people getting a dusting. We’ve mixed back with rain and sleet here but I see a few flakes as well.
Interesting... I'm probably only 10 miles N of you at the most and we are getting the heaviest snow we've had of the morning right now. Big flakes falling. Close to an inch on my truck roof accumulation
 
Not as rosy a picture on the Pivotal map.
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
12z cmc pushing some 3” totals far north west into the western Triad/foothills. Some maps could bust on the low side up this way if it’s right.
 
-IP/-RN just started back, up to 45.3 and DP has dropped to 31.3. Feel pretty confident in the DP/RH readings as I have 3 sensors that monitor and all very closely aligned. I do not recall a time in memory here where we went from 45F at the surface to accumulating snow in 8hrs.
 
It's 44 and 29 in Wake Forest. I'm a little worried about the temp, too. Hope the rates make it crash fast.
 
HRRR seems to be increasing each run for the western piedmont into the foothills. It went from blanking us to 2” maybe more once it’s done.
 
Probably not flipping to snow until the 4-6 pm time frame for us unless this starts banding up and goes crazy before

Man, I thought it would start a lot earlier than that here. Webber's map still looked good for my backyard, though. I thought it would have to start earlier to get those amounts.
 
latest wrf and hrrr showing light precip thru 4pm or so for clt, likely won't switch to snow until then. qpf not verifying as heavy as some of the models were showing.
 
Looking at the crappy maps on Pivotal, it looks like the latest RAP has increased snow amounts in Raleigh from 2" to 3"(Kuchera). Not much but everything helps. Still looks like a snow hole for the folks in the Triad.

Latest RAP starting to run crazy totals like the NAM had yesterday

RAPMA_prec_snow_035.png
 
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