Agree with this, it usually does very well with thermals...... also note it has precip much further east than the NAM, look at DP's and is that a meso hp up in Va? Really tries to go pound town in the NW sections of NC
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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
Other than the mountains the 12z NAM is not impressed..... although it's showing some ridiculous 2" plus amounts in NE Ga.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Actually the mountains may not do as well with this as areas just east of there as the cold funnels down the eastern side of the mtns.Other than the mountains the 12z NAM is not impressed..... although it's showing some ridiculous 2" plus amounts in NE Ga.
Yeah I know you're right, I was using that as a reference more than anything.... obviously in situations like this elevation is not necessarily your friend
Have a hard time believing we are as dry as the nam shows late Tuesday into early Wednesday
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Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
ajr
Member
RGEM....dang!
^^^Btw it's not over yet on the RGEM at end of it's run
Update after reviewing morning guidance. For road impacts looks like Wilkes into the mountains only. Mostly wet for places like Yadkinville to Statesville line. I think Temperatures will be garbage from Greensboro to Statesville line mostly 32+. However, mixing will still fall from the sky in those areas and support a winter weather advisory for elevated surface bs.
I really hate how some invidivuals refuse to cooperate with others and issue a Winter Storm Watch for advisory events. I would expand it out of Wilkes from Reidsville to Morganton by including the Winston area. For public awareness I think it would help. It impacts morning commute, bridges and some tree impact where spring has started.
No wonder it got so quiet in here !!?? I guess we toss global snow?? 
2” snow per hour west of i77 for three hours on the 12z CMC is bs. Chances of verifying: 10% or less. I think the cold bias is overkill and timing/rates two days out will be wrong. It’s overdone but it could be half way right and lead to some light accumulations of snow under 3” for Watauga, Ashe, Alleghany, Wilkes and Surry.
Preliminary first guess. Mountains 1-3” snow/sleet to freezing rain to rain. 0.25” ice or less. Foothills an inch of snow/sleet possible to freezing rain to rain. 0.25” ice or less. North/west Piedmont to Greensboro area a coating of sleet possible to freezing rain to rain. 0.15” ice possible or less. Elsewhere starts as sleet to cold rain.
NAM is a mere difference of about 1 degree and struggles to bring/place moisture in the right areas at this range. Silly to say it was lost. It’s just trying to figure out the moisture placement and timing which can and will skew temps for better or worse.
More specific on the ice after reviewing WPC and models. A lot of trashy ice outputs going around. No half inch amounts are likely with only a 10% chance near Watauga/Avery area. The quarter inch ice (Ice Storm Warning) will be about the most to expect mountains/foothills. Which is still a high impact event. Out of the foothills only advisory icing from a glaze to maybe 0.15”. Remember these areas have had prior ice storms and close to 2 feet of snow so the impact may be less this go around. Also it will be wet and temps near 32 will not support ice out of the trees the further you go below 1,500ft.
I’m about to see what the 12z looks like 
ajr
Member
Shame the upper levels aren’t cooperating - that’s such a nice look
This storm is very important to me in seeing if the pattern is turning snowier or if the mixed bag theory will hang on for a few more weeks. A widespread 3-6” snow in western NC would signal to me a trend to all snow for March. If it’s Limited to a county or two and north into Virgina would mean we likely have another mixed bag storm late feb/early March. Sounds crazy but I think Obs are very important in telling us how the pattern is slowly changing.