Not sure if this means anything, but temperatures have been running several degrees below forecast the past two days in Raleigh.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
CMC paste bombs me with a layer of ZR after, I’m Gucci
Not at all. CAD is tricky and has two days to reset with 50+ degree temps. Raleigh in this case could be too Far East with delay precip, rain to start and delayed transition if any.
Tommorow seems to be the only day were it will be right at 50F for me, anyways I don’t see a much of a event where there’s gonna be ice on the roads/sidewalks until you get towards the foothills/mountains, this looks like a storm where trees will get glazed, I’ve seen events where the day before it was 70 degrees than the day after there’s ice accretion on trees, we need a stronger fronto band for areas outside the mountains to get a thump of snow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The big ice storm south of RDU in Feb 17-19 1989 had temps in the lower 80s within 36 hours of the event starting so yeah lol
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It’s amazing how bad the Euro does with CAD events considering it’s higher resolution.
Nomanslandva
Member
These systems always seem bust low on QPF here. We'll see if this is another system that works out that way but it seems like one. With surface temps potentially staying below freezing until Wed eve, I should probably hope we bust low. Because we know the warm air aloft will be stronger than modeled so likely more freezing than frozen.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I said something about this before. The forecast here busted almost 10 degrees the other day. And we know how the CAD can be stronger here than the models show.
Let's see what the 12z suite looks like today.... the 06z 3k NAM looked more realistic imo than the 0z that had zr all the way to the coastal plain. This seems to be a primarily western NC, maybe extreme NE Ga and upstate SC system but the main areas western NC. Oh and western Va don't want to forget @Nomanslandva
Tweets
[IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/547933659891007488/GohwTtpn_bigger.jpeg[/IMG][B]Joe Bastardi[/B]Verified account @[B]BigJoeBastardi[/B] 54s55 seconds ago
More
NAM is overdone with snow amounts, but understands like Euro IMO that the conveyor belt of heavy precip is pointed further north than GFS In GFS defense it has shifted core of heavy frozen north from Carolinas to Va, but still looks too far south to me
6z also took away a good majority of the precip when we could wet bulb down so it was warmer. Models are really concerning that we may just not have a lot of precip most of Tuesday into early Wednesday so we are just left waiting while it drizzles.
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
I’ve seen it go both ways....precip takes longer to get going and a finger of precip extending out over the area earlier than forecast. This scenario favors the former, IMO. We’ll moisten the column up slowly and wetbulb before the main precip arrives and then hang out in the low/mid 30s. I would not be surprised to see a very little light zr in the Raleigh area before the freezing process takes the temp to 33. I don’t think it’ll be a big deal here, but any ice is a win, I suppose.
I actually want to go the other way and say this over performs on the front end. But with our luck you will most likely be right
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Using JB logic, anytime it’s not over his house in Boalsburg, PA, it’s gonna trend to it