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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump

Products being issued all the way down to the South Carolina line. Wow
 
Possible upgrade to Blizzard Warning if snowier solutions verify. Current Winter Storm Warning is for gusts to 40mph and heavy mixed bag.
 
Advisories will be needed for upstate South Carolina and north Georgia.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Advisories will be needed for upstate South Carolina and north Georgia.
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I think the very northern tip Greenville county in SC is as far as any sort of WWA should go. Maybe the mountains of Oconee and Pickens? Should be a complete non event here honestly
 
Getting a lot of questions from down east. If you want to see some pingers fall this is your storm. (Triangle/Raleigh). The snow surprise bust chance potential cuts off rapidly as one goes down 421 somewhere between Wilkesboro and Yadkinville. The good thing is you won’t need freezing temps to get the pingers before it goes to a cold rain. Freezing rain is limited to the trees mostly unless your near the Virgina line north of Raleigh back west to Rural Hall could have some rough bridges.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Getting a lot of questions from down east. If you want to see some pingers fall this is your storm. (Triangle/Raleigh). The snow surprise bust chance potential cuts off rapidly as one goes down 421 somewhere between Wilkesboro and Yadkinville. The good thing is you won’t need freezing temps to get the pingers before it goes to a cold rain. Freezing rain is limited to the trees mostly unless your near the Virgina line north of Raleigh back west to Rural Hall could have some rough bridges.
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Can you please stop acting like you are a meteorologist? You are not the definitive word on this, or any other storm. Stop posting in absolutes. It’s ok to state your opinion one time, but you are cluttering up the thread with your pseudo analysis. Exactly half of the posts on the last two pages have been from you. Many of your posts are borderline. Please reign it in some, and post less frequently.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Getting a lot of questions from down east. If you want to see some pingers fall this is your storm. (Triangle/Raleigh). The snow surprise bust chance potential cuts off rapidly as one goes down 421 somewhere between Wilkesboro and Yadkinville. The good thing is you won’t need freezing temps to get the pingers before it goes to a cold rain. Freezing rain is limited to the trees mostly unless your near the Virgina line north of Raleigh back west to Rural Hall could have some rough bridges.
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I want to thank you for your analysis, it’s been very helpful. I joined today as I enjoyed reading your posts.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Neighboring offices. 40-60mph west or south of Boone surely it be higher than 10 there.
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This is incorrect for Boone. Boone will only get high gusts after a strong frontal passage with strong pressure rises coupled with deep NW flow in the 280 to 310 direction. Morristown will issue wind headlines west of the mountains in advance of fronts usually due to strong SE flow coming over the mountains. Basically the opposite of how Boone gets strong gusts. So yes, 10 would be reasonable for Boone in this case.
 
Seems odd tho they say 35 mph for the central foothill counties from GSP in the winter weather advisory. Almost as if it just skips Boone?
 
I didn’t see anyone post the latest euro snow map so here you go. Widespread 2-4” for north-west NC. Some 1” amounts trying to enter Winston-Salem.
 

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BirdManDoomW said:
I didn’t see anyone post the latest euro snow map so here you go. Widespread 2-4” for north-west NC. Some 1” amounts trying to enter Winston-Salem.
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That's assuming everything frozen is snow, it's not, and assuming 10:1 ratios if it were all snow.... again it's not.
Here are the precip accum maps, much more realistic

ecmwf_ptype_a_raleigh_11.png
 
Yes NAM is more snowy onset then sleet then ice. Could lower ZR totals some due to more snow/sleet. (Western NC).
 
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NAM loses the idea of no precip while VA is smoked. This run has precip of snow to sleet to ice for NC with no lull or delay. Much better. Probably doubles the sleet time instead of ZR for north-west NC.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is what I’m talking about when I say shallow, like I said earlier this would limit rates slowing the process of latent heat release View attachment 15943
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This is why I like this forum. I used to see the freaking charts and be like WTH??? But you guys help people understand what is going on!!!
 
Just looking off the HRRR, it’s going to be pretty useless in this setup, it has been pretty bad this winter with CADs anyways
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Headed your way Wednesday, So I'm probably going to miss part of the wintry weather here. Maybe there will be some in Roanoke Rapids?
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HRRR says get here around 1 am and maybe just maybe you can catch a flake or two.... Lol

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Like I said earlier, living on the edge here
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RGEM been most consistent with the eastward expansion of the precip shield..... I'm not totally buying .2 of ice accrual here but I'll keep an eye on DP's and the radar tomorrow night anyway. Just enough to keep me interested
 
God that ice map is trash I wouldn’t know where to start..just saying.
 
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