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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump

Myfrotho704_ said:
whats Wrong with the map chief ?
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All winter long it has been a fail. Tennessee isn’t going to score that much. Much of the Asheville area south-west isn’t going to either in CAD to that degree at least. Greensboro won’t hold the throne over places like Hickory. Those widespread heavy totals in WV will not verify. It has failed all winter with CAD with too much ice and wrong placement. CAD ground zero is the escarpment not Tennessee. I could go on and on.
 
Western Surry into eastern Alleghany NC will outdo just about any of those heavier areas on that map. 90% of the time. I don’t think the NWS uses that particular model data at all.i have never seen a human forecast match up with it at least.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Western Surry into eastern Alleghany NC will outdo just about any of those heavier areas on that map. 90% of the time. I don’t think the NWS uses that particular model data at all.i have never seen a human forecast match up with it at least.
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Lol matched up with the anafront fail weeks ago, it showed the bust potential and It happened, it also did ok in my opinion with the Dec storm, it showed insane amounts back with that January storm because it doesn’t account ronoff due to heavy precip rates, it counts all of it as ZR, it’s not a bad model
 
Yea it can be useful some. But it will continued to be ignored as it shows over half an inch of ice for northeast TN where there will not even be a winter weather advisory. It’s a hot mess and totally useless in many areas.
 
Rainforrest said:
Looks like Transylvania and Henderson counties ground zero.
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May be a little surprise there with a more favored earlier arrrival that far south-west. Any snow sleet accums would help rack that ZR total way up giving it something to stick to. I think this ground zero stretches from where you mentioned up to Boone.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol matched up with the anafront fail weeks ago, it showed the bust potential and It happened, it also did ok in my opinion with the Dec storm, it showed insane amounts back with that January storm because it doesn’t account ronoff due to heavy precip rates, it counts all of it as ZR, it’s not a bad model
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The thing that confuses me is that GSP has winter storm warnings out and their forecast accumulation map show no warning criteria ice or snow for anyone including the mountains... strange. Someone explain that one to me.
 
Any ground truth to the snow returns on radar in north Georgia?
 
HRRR and most models saying precip should start really developing starting over Louisiana around 8 am ... it’s currently 2 am and this is what our radar looks like ... intitial band is flourishing on radar too doesn’t really look like it’s drying out ... will be interesting to nowcast I will reiterate
 

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Even tho the hrrr is crappy, it’s interesting, still showing mostly rain after prolly due to its warm/mixing bias F33E93C1-8E63-49D2-BC91-8491E8709253.jpeg
 
RAH has issued a WWA for the Piedmont Triad. Potential for up to .10 ice accrual.
 
6Z NAM has backed way off with the freezing rain potential in the Piedmont regions. We'll have to see if this continues with the 12Z suite, but I'm inclined to believe in more of a cold rain than any significant ice accrual. We'll see.
 
Poimen said:
6Z NAM has backed way off with the freezing rain potential in the Piedmont regions. We'll have to see if this continues with the 12Z suite, but I'm inclined to believe in more of a cold rain than any significant ice accrual. We'll see.
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Yes it did. Looks like everything is trending towards the GFS.
 
Poimen said:
6Z NAM has backed way off with the freezing rain potential in the Piedmont regions. We'll have to see if this continues with the 12Z suite, but I'm inclined to believe in more of a cold rain than any significant ice accrual. We'll see.
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I don't know. The CAD is almost always stronger than what the models show. The temps could be off by a couple of degrees and that could make a big difference. They were off by almost 10 degrees with the forecast a few days ago.
 
Poimen said:
6Z NAM has backed way off with the freezing rain potential in the Piedmont regions. We'll have to see if this continues with the 12Z suite, but I'm inclined to believe in more of a cold rain than any significant ice accrual. We'll see.
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I never thought it would do what it was showing. Yesterday sunshine heated up the roads and unless we get down to 29-30 degrees it will be a non event. We have already pre treated as that is what contracts want but shouldn't be much to it. We have had several close calls this year but this isn't horseshoes.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't know. The CAD is almost always stronger than what the models show. The temps could be off by a couple of degrees and that could make a big difference. They were off by almost 10 degrees with the forecast a few days ago.
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Temps were off the other day but will not be that far off this time. If a thump of snow happens it will cool down but rain will not cool us that much. This is a non event for most
 
Poimen said:
6Z NAM has backed way off with the freezing rain potential in the Piedmont regions. We'll have to see if this continues with the 12Z suite, but I'm inclined to believe in more of a cold rain than any significant ice accrual. We'll see.
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You still have the RGEM
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What is still crazy to me is the models haven’t picked up on this band of precip that’s still moving in ... they don’t have widespread precip like that over spreading until later this afternoon... biggest wildcard imo
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
What is still crazy to me is the models haven’t picked up on this band of precip that’s still moving in ... they don’t have widespread precip like that over spreading until later this afternoon... biggest wildcard imo
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Hrrr does pick it up. It just kills it over the next 4-5 hrs as the main storm takes over to the west.
 
HRRR doesn’t even show the thunderstorms already in southern Alabama... these short range models are crack rn .. this thing is a now caster for sure
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
What is still crazy to me is the models haven’t picked up on this band of precip that’s still moving in ... they don’t have widespread precip like that over spreading until later this afternoon... biggest wildcard imo
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Precipitation during large-scale overrunning events like this where warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is gliding up isentropic surfaces (areas of equal temperature) (i.e. isentropic upglide) is usually more widespread & intense than forecast especially on the northern fringes of where its forecast to occur and its not uncommon to see extra sleet or snow (if it's cold enough) on the front-end.
 
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